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After China annexes Taiwan, we will be much more reliant on other sources of computer chips. Ideally for national defense concerns, these sources should be dome

After China annexes Taiwan, we will be much more reliant on other sources of computer chips. Ideally for national defense concerns, these sources should be domestic.

systemvoltage 5y ago
Purely from a technological standpoint (not humanitarian or geopolitical), I see annexation of Taiwan as a great thing to get US out of it's current laissez faire in Semiconductors, esp Intel. It would be a good wakeup call for Silicon Valley to stop working on Ad-Tech and start semiconductor startups to live up to its legacy dating back to 1970s. I am afraid, it won't be SV doing this, it will be Austin (R&D, currently Apple/Samsung SoC) and Phoenix (Manufacturing - currently, Fab-42 in Ocotillo).
- randomopining 5y ago
  Lol what kind of comment is this.
onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
Wouldn't it be pretty easy for Taiwan to cause irrevocable harm to China? Why would you assume that they'll just sit around and be conquered? Hong Kong didn't have a military - and even if they did - they share a border with China. It wouldn't exactly be a walk in the park for China to get airplanes over Taiwan or to land boats for an invasion. And if they tried, I can't see the world blaming Taiwan for blowing up the Three Gorges Dam - which for China would be literally catastrophic.
- whatshisface 5y ago
  I am pretty sure that China would lose more trying to take the heavily guarded island than they could ever get back from occupying it afterwards. Unfortunately that's not enough to stop major powers from invading for irrational reasons. If major powers only invaded when they had something to gain, Saddam would still be in office.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - foobiekr 5y ago
    For China, it’s an emotional issue. No amount of losses would be to steep once it starts.
    - hayst4ck 5y ago
      I find this statement hard to take. It feels like propaganda to me. Emotional issues are not without context. Is it being an "emotional" issue more correct than it being an issue of (1) educational indoctrination, (2) explicit media based propaganda, and (3) lack of access to opposing view points? Clearly there is some systemic explanation for people's emotions. If the Chinese government preached the values of "do unto others as you would have done to you" rather than "we must right the wrongs of the century of embarrassment" would we see this being an "emotional issue." If the issue of Taiwan were cast in the light of "if you were Taiwanese, how would you feel about China?" do you think it would still be an "unstoppable irrational force"? If the Chinese government preached values like tolerance and diversity, do you think the Chinese people would have the stomach for dominating another people? China, rightfully, was angered by colonial transgression against it, but then wishes to be a colonial power itself, committing the very same evils it faced against less powerful countries. By Chinese standards, it appears that might makes right, so should the world not exercise might against and colonize China, an action that is right under Chinese morality? Or is it a matter of Han Supremacy, where the moral system is built upon the idea of Han superiority and rules for other nations that don't apply to China itself. How should I feel empathy for "the Chinese people" when from the outside it appears that they wish to dominate another people?
      - whatshisface 5y ago
        >If Chinese people are so [...] This is where you are mistaken, thinking that the characteristics of Chinese people have anything to do with the behavior of the Chinese government. Edit: it appears that the sentence I was quoting was removed from the parent comment.
- randomopining 5y ago
  CCP has too many missiles. That was their strategy the whole time, overwhelming numbers of short to medium range missiles.
  - MeinBlutIstBlau 5y ago
    What point is conquering a people if you level it to the point that people can live there? It defeats the point of annexation. I guarantee Taiwan has seen that day coming that they've got bunkers galore kind of like Switzerland. Believe it or not, it's a mountainous island. At best, it'd be a drawn out Afghanistan with a diplomatic sanction frenzy worldwide. China would be painted by global media outlets as evil if they took a total war approach. They'd have to do it like Russia with Crimea or Milosevic in Yugoslavia with paramilitary groups. Everyday the Taiwanese identify less Chinese making it that much harder. The only thing that will make them do it is if the US and EU are in a weak state and can't be bothered with policing that. Like another depression and global war elsewhere.
    - hindsightbias 5y ago
      The worlds outrage would last as long as their iPhone supply. Cook didn’t take Trump as a threat enough to justify diversifying his supply chain much, he isn’t losing any sleep about Taiwans upcoming annex.
    - nyokodo 5y ago
      > The only thing that will make them do it is if the US and EU are in a weak state and can't be bothered with policing that. If that were the case then neither would they be reigning in Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, South Korea, and India. All Chinese strategic adversaries right on their doorstep. India alone could shut down oil shipments to China that all have to sail close by. Japan’s navy is stronger than China’s and they have formidable air defenses. China might just spark a regional war which they probably wouldn’t win. I hope they’re not suicidal enough to test this though.
    - randomopining 5y ago
      The point is to control the island that locks in their aspirations of controlling Asian sea trade and thus slowly controlling the countries around them. They don’t care about the people there one bit. When they control most of the world in the future, they can just rewrite history and nobody will know. Classic move.
- MeinBlutIstBlau 5y ago
  It won't happen. It would be like Russia in Afghanistan. The US would funnel supplies through almost all of their Asian allies in the Pacific as well as deploy a UN peacekeeping force much like in the Yugoslav wars. You can be damn sure that an American politician would use that as rhetoric to bring jobs back. I can assure you republicans would leap for this opportunity. It would be the best PR they could ever get.
  - ericmay 5y ago
    It would be more than that. The U.S. would actively attack Chinese forces attempting to invade Taiwan. There is very little doubt about that.
    - MeinBlutIstBlau 5y ago
      I highly doubt they'd get involved at that scale. You're talking about a major conflict. One in particular the US would not like to get involved in. The US never even did that with Russia. What makes you think the US would protect Taiwan? US military strategy for the allied Asian countries has always been "treat them as a buffer" and hasn't changed. If they got involved it would be an international incident seeing as two major nuclear powers are at war. There would enumerable politicians also hesitant to instigate that conflict. The US sat by while Britain was being invaded in WW2 and needed ridiculous political cozying up to even get troops over to the front in WWI. Why would they stick their necks out for Taiwan?
      - jakeinspace 5y ago
        Taiwan is one of the most important allies the US has against China. I think that a straight-up bombing/invasion of Taiwan would be met with a massive naval response from the 7th fleet (pretty much total war, short of nuclear). China is still at least a decade away from naval superiority, so I don’t see why they would tempt fate. They’ll simply continue their buildup in the South China Sea, and hope that the US in the meantime weakens or loses interest for political reasons.
      - cycrutchfield 5y ago
- thysultan 5y ago
  HTF(how the fuck) is Taiwan going send missiles beyond its own airspace let alone over China's to blow up the three gorges dam? If China is serious Taiwan will be encircled with s-400's in little islands(artificial or otherwise) surrounding it before the first shot is ever fired, at which point the conclusion is already a forgone tale. When it does happen the rest of the world(by which i mean the U.S) will be pre-occupied with domestic issues, cyber space issues and possibly another pandemic. Not to mention the backdrop of the fact that the U.S launching missiles to China might trigger the MAD doctrine of Russia because missiles heading in that general direction might as well be heading to Russia, or be assumed to be as much. >“Russia will perceive any ballistic missile launched at its territory as a nuclear attack that warrants a nuclear retaliation” - Russian military chief warned last year after round of reforms Ergo the U.S president at that time will leave Taiwan out to dry instead of risking World War 3. We're living in interesting times.
  - shkkmo 5y ago
    > Ergo the U.S president at that time will leave Taiwan out to dry instead of risking World War 3. I don't think (or atleast I hope not) the US would use nuclear weapons to defend Taiwan, but I have a hard time believing that the US wouldn't offer atleast token military resistance. At the very least, the US has a lot of standing to lose with it's many allies accross the globe that would make leaving Taiwan out to dry very costly.
    - thysultan 5y ago
      The fact that it need not be nuclear, complicates their possible response because >“Russia will perceive any ballistic missile launched at its territory as a nuclear attack and based on recent historical data in ukraine, it's not beyond the states course of action to not do anything of consequential note, and instead opting for token gestures.
88840-8855 5y ago
I know you are just trolling, but I still reply: Past: Mao had the chance to conquer Taiwan, however, the causalties appeared him as too high, hence, this "goal" was never persuaded. Present: Despite some very loud hardliners wishing for the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, there is currently no indication that China is preparing for it: "Milley added that he thought China had little intention to take Taiwan by force: There’s no reason to do it militarily, and they know that. So, I think the probability is probably low, in the immediate, near-term future." "The PLA currently lacks the required amphibious lift, logistics, and materiel for a robust cross-Strait invasion and shows no urgency to achieve it,” Andrew Erickson, a professor at the US Naval War College" "https://www.ft.com/content/f68c3fdf-5f3b-4cd3-9fcf-03b7a19ea7ee https://www.ft.com/content/f68c3fdf-5f3b-4cd3-9fcf-03b7a19ea... I know it is boring for many that wish the evil China to do something really evil. But this won't happen, it seems.
- throwaway4good 5y ago
  Agreed. Also in their thinking, they have time on their side, for every year, for every decade, mainland China grows bigger in relative economic terms.
markus_zhang 5y ago
TBH it's more of US interest to try to get China into hitting Taiwan instead of China's interest.
vagrantJin 5y ago
> National defence concerns Honest question. Do US citizens honestly think National Defence os a top priority above all else? If so, why? The reason I ask is because its quite rare to find any other democratic country, barring Israel, that mentions national defence in almost every discussion about most things
- Hnrobert42 5y ago
  Because they don’t have to as long as they are under the US defense umbrella.
- analognoise 5y ago
  Above all else? No, but it's definitely a top priority.
- shepherdjerred 5y ago
  Other democratic countries don't have the influence and power that the United States does (for better or worse). Consider the Cold War (which really wasn't that long ago) where there was a real possibility of the destruction of the country, or 9/11 where the country banded together to fight a perceived threat. Keeping the United States as a top world power is obviously going to be of interest to Americans, and national defense is a part of that.
- ajmadesc 5y ago
  Those democracies are protectorates
- logicalmonster 5y ago
  > Do US citizens honestly think National Defence os a top priority above all else? If so, why? Ultimately, being able to guarantee that you can defend yourself ensures you can seek out your other values in life, whatever they might be. In fact, I'd argue that many countries have the privilege to not even think about their national defense too much because they rely on American military guarantees for protecting their borders and trade. Americans certainly do quibble about the size and scale of the American military machine and its role in the world though. This is a very frequent topic of discussion in political discussions with a number of friends.
mymanz 5y ago
Indeed. Many in the military suspect we only have six years before annexation. Many such articles https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-could-invade-taiwan-next-6-years-assume-global-leadership-n1260386 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-could-invade-taiwan...
- javajosh 5y ago
  Yep. Abandoning HK is just the beginning. When the rot gets too bad in an empire the only outcome is fall. Ask Rome, or any of the 100s of lesser empires that have come and gone. The era of Chinese-brand communism, super-charged by free markets (!) and the ruthless use of technology, is upon us. It's a keep-your-mouth-shut-and-you'll-be-fine era, and I for one will not survive in it, and I will mourn the passing of our cultural of praising dissent and whistleblowers and the trouble-makers that, more often than not, contribute far more than anyone else.
dang 5y ago
Please keep political and nationalistic flamebait off this site. If you want to make a thoughtful comment about geopolitical risks to semiconductor supply, that's fine. Leading with "After China annexes Taiwan" is trolling—by effect, if not intention: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=troll%20effects%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor.... We're trying to avoid that here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

After China annexes Taiwan, we will be much more reliant on other sources of computer chips. Ideally for national defense concerns, these sources should be domestic.

systemvoltage 5y ago

Purely from a technological standpoint (not humanitarian or geopolitical), I see annexation of Taiwan as a great thing to get US out of it's current laissez faire in Semiconductors, esp Intel. It would be a good wakeup call for Silicon Valley to stop working on Ad-Tech and start semiconductor startups to live up to its legacy dating back to 1970s. I am afraid, it won't be SV doing this, it will be Austin (R&D, currently Apple/Samsung SoC) and Phoenix (Manufacturing - currently, Fab-42 in Ocotillo).

randomopining 5y ago
Lol what kind of comment is this.

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago

Wouldn't it be pretty easy for Taiwan to cause irrevocable harm to China? Why would you assume that they'll just sit around and be conquered? Hong Kong didn't have a military - and even if they did - they share a border with China. It wouldn't exactly be a walk in the park for China to get airplanes over Taiwan or to land boats for an invasion. And if they tried, I can't see the world blaming Taiwan for blowing up the Three Gorges Dam - which for China would be literally catastrophic.

whatshisface 5y ago
I am pretty sure that China would lose more trying to take the heavily guarded island than they could ever get back from occupying it afterwards. Unfortunately that's not enough to stop major powers from invading for irrational reasons. If major powers only invaded when they had something to gain, Saddam would still be in office.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- foobiekr 5y ago
  For China, it’s an emotional issue. No amount of losses would be to steep once it starts.
  - hayst4ck 5y ago
    I find this statement hard to take. It feels like propaganda to me. Emotional issues are not without context. Is it being an "emotional" issue more correct than it being an issue of (1) educational indoctrination, (2) explicit media based propaganda, and (3) lack of access to opposing view points? Clearly there is some systemic explanation for people's emotions. If the Chinese government preached the values of "do unto others as you would have done to you" rather than "we must right the wrongs of the century of embarrassment" would we see this being an "emotional issue." If the issue of Taiwan were cast in the light of "if you were Taiwanese, how would you feel about China?" do you think it would still be an "unstoppable irrational force"? If the Chinese government preached values like tolerance and diversity, do you think the Chinese people would have the stomach for dominating another people? China, rightfully, was angered by colonial transgression against it, but then wishes to be a colonial power itself, committing the very same evils it faced against less powerful countries. By Chinese standards, it appears that might makes right, so should the world not exercise might against and colonize China, an action that is right under Chinese morality? Or is it a matter of Han Supremacy, where the moral system is built upon the idea of Han superiority and rules for other nations that don't apply to China itself. How should I feel empathy for "the Chinese people" when from the outside it appears that they wish to dominate another people?
    - whatshisface 5y ago
      >If Chinese people are so [...] This is where you are mistaken, thinking that the characteristics of Chinese people have anything to do with the behavior of the Chinese government. Edit: it appears that the sentence I was quoting was removed from the parent comment.
randomopining 5y ago
CCP has too many missiles. That was their strategy the whole time, overwhelming numbers of short to medium range missiles.
- MeinBlutIstBlau 5y ago
  What point is conquering a people if you level it to the point that people can live there? It defeats the point of annexation. I guarantee Taiwan has seen that day coming that they've got bunkers galore kind of like Switzerland. Believe it or not, it's a mountainous island. At best, it'd be a drawn out Afghanistan with a diplomatic sanction frenzy worldwide. China would be painted by global media outlets as evil if they took a total war approach. They'd have to do it like Russia with Crimea or Milosevic in Yugoslavia with paramilitary groups. Everyday the Taiwanese identify less Chinese making it that much harder. The only thing that will make them do it is if the US and EU are in a weak state and can't be bothered with policing that. Like another depression and global war elsewhere.
  - hindsightbias 5y ago
    The worlds outrage would last as long as their iPhone supply. Cook didn’t take Trump as a threat enough to justify diversifying his supply chain much, he isn’t losing any sleep about Taiwans upcoming annex.
  - nyokodo 5y ago
    > The only thing that will make them do it is if the US and EU are in a weak state and can't be bothered with policing that. If that were the case then neither would they be reigning in Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, South Korea, and India. All Chinese strategic adversaries right on their doorstep. India alone could shut down oil shipments to China that all have to sail close by. Japan’s navy is stronger than China’s and they have formidable air defenses. China might just spark a regional war which they probably wouldn’t win. I hope they’re not suicidal enough to test this though.
  - randomopining 5y ago
    The point is to control the island that locks in their aspirations of controlling Asian sea trade and thus slowly controlling the countries around them. They don’t care about the people there one bit. When they control most of the world in the future, they can just rewrite history and nobody will know. Classic move.
MeinBlutIstBlau 5y ago
It won't happen. It would be like Russia in Afghanistan. The US would funnel supplies through almost all of their Asian allies in the Pacific as well as deploy a UN peacekeeping force much like in the Yugoslav wars. You can be damn sure that an American politician would use that as rhetoric to bring jobs back. I can assure you republicans would leap for this opportunity. It would be the best PR they could ever get.
- ericmay 5y ago
  It would be more than that. The U.S. would actively attack Chinese forces attempting to invade Taiwan. There is very little doubt about that.
  - MeinBlutIstBlau 5y ago
    I highly doubt they'd get involved at that scale. You're talking about a major conflict. One in particular the US would not like to get involved in. The US never even did that with Russia. What makes you think the US would protect Taiwan? US military strategy for the allied Asian countries has always been "treat them as a buffer" and hasn't changed. If they got involved it would be an international incident seeing as two major nuclear powers are at war. There would enumerable politicians also hesitant to instigate that conflict. The US sat by while Britain was being invaded in WW2 and needed ridiculous political cozying up to even get troops over to the front in WWI. Why would they stick their necks out for Taiwan?
    - jakeinspace 5y ago
      Taiwan is one of the most important allies the US has against China. I think that a straight-up bombing/invasion of Taiwan would be met with a massive naval response from the 7th fleet (pretty much total war, short of nuclear). China is still at least a decade away from naval superiority, so I don’t see why they would tempt fate. They’ll simply continue their buildup in the South China Sea, and hope that the US in the meantime weakens or loses interest for political reasons.
    - cycrutchfield 5y ago
thysultan 5y ago
HTF(how the fuck) is Taiwan going send missiles beyond its own airspace let alone over China's to blow up the three gorges dam? If China is serious Taiwan will be encircled with s-400's in little islands(artificial or otherwise) surrounding it before the first shot is ever fired, at which point the conclusion is already a forgone tale. When it does happen the rest of the world(by which i mean the U.S) will be pre-occupied with domestic issues, cyber space issues and possibly another pandemic. Not to mention the backdrop of the fact that the U.S launching missiles to China might trigger the MAD doctrine of Russia because missiles heading in that general direction might as well be heading to Russia, or be assumed to be as much. >“Russia will perceive any ballistic missile launched at its territory as a nuclear attack that warrants a nuclear retaliation” - Russian military chief warned last year after round of reforms Ergo the U.S president at that time will leave Taiwan out to dry instead of risking World War 3. We're living in interesting times.
- shkkmo 5y ago
  > Ergo the U.S president at that time will leave Taiwan out to dry instead of risking World War 3. I don't think (or atleast I hope not) the US would use nuclear weapons to defend Taiwan, but I have a hard time believing that the US wouldn't offer atleast token military resistance. At the very least, the US has a lot of standing to lose with it's many allies accross the globe that would make leaving Taiwan out to dry very costly.
  - thysultan 5y ago
    The fact that it need not be nuclear, complicates their possible response because >“Russia will perceive any ballistic missile launched at its territory as a nuclear attack and based on recent historical data in ukraine, it's not beyond the states course of action to not do anything of consequential note, and instead opting for token gestures.

88840-8855 5y ago

I know you are just trolling, but I still reply: Past: Mao had the chance to conquer Taiwan, however, the causalties appeared him as too high, hence, this "goal" was never persuaded. Present: Despite some very loud hardliners wishing for the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, there is currently no indication that China is preparing for it: "Milley added that he thought China had little intention to take Taiwan by force: There’s no reason to do it militarily, and they know that. So, I think the probability is probably low, in the immediate, near-term future." "The PLA currently lacks the required amphibious lift, logistics, and materiel for a robust cross-Strait invasion and shows no urgency to achieve it,” Andrew Erickson, a professor at the US Naval War College" "https://www.ft.com/content/f68c3fdf-5f3b-4cd3-9fcf-03b7a19ea7ee https://www.ft.com/content/f68c3fdf-5f3b-4cd3-9fcf-03b7a19ea... I know it is boring for many that wish the evil China to do something really evil. But this won't happen, it seems.

throwaway4good 5y ago
Agreed. Also in their thinking, they have time on their side, for every year, for every decade, mainland China grows bigger in relative economic terms.

markus_zhang 5y ago

TBH it's more of US interest to try to get China into hitting Taiwan instead of China's interest.

vagrantJin 5y ago

> National defence concerns Honest question. Do US citizens honestly think National Defence os a top priority above all else? If so, why? The reason I ask is because its quite rare to find any other democratic country, barring Israel, that mentions national defence in almost every discussion about most things

Hnrobert42 5y ago
Because they don’t have to as long as they are under the US defense umbrella.
analognoise 5y ago
Above all else? No, but it's definitely a top priority.
shepherdjerred 5y ago
Other democratic countries don't have the influence and power that the United States does (for better or worse). Consider the Cold War (which really wasn't that long ago) where there was a real possibility of the destruction of the country, or 9/11 where the country banded together to fight a perceived threat. Keeping the United States as a top world power is obviously going to be of interest to Americans, and national defense is a part of that.
ajmadesc 5y ago
Those democracies are protectorates
logicalmonster 5y ago
> Do US citizens honestly think National Defence os a top priority above all else? If so, why? Ultimately, being able to guarantee that you can defend yourself ensures you can seek out your other values in life, whatever they might be. In fact, I'd argue that many countries have the privilege to not even think about their national defense too much because they rely on American military guarantees for protecting their borders and trade. Americans certainly do quibble about the size and scale of the American military machine and its role in the world though. This is a very frequent topic of discussion in political discussions with a number of friends.

mymanz 5y ago

Indeed. Many in the military suspect we only have six years before annexation. Many such articles https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-could-invade-taiwan-next-6-years-assume-global-leadership-n1260386 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-could-invade-taiwan...

javajosh 5y ago
Yep. Abandoning HK is just the beginning. When the rot gets too bad in an empire the only outcome is fall. Ask Rome, or any of the 100s of lesser empires that have come and gone. The era of Chinese-brand communism, super-charged by free markets (!) and the ruthless use of technology, is upon us. It's a keep-your-mouth-shut-and-you'll-be-fine era, and I for one will not survive in it, and I will mourn the passing of our cultural of praising dissent and whistleblowers and the trouble-makers that, more often than not, contribute far more than anyone else.

dang 5y ago

Please keep political and nationalistic flamebait off this site. If you want to make a thoughtful comment about geopolitical risks to semiconductor supply, that's fine. Leading with "After China annexes Taiwan" is trolling—by effect, if not intention: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=troll%20effects%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor.... We're trying to avoid that here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html