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So what’s your big plan? Sounds like fatalism to me, and I’m not buying it. China is just the latest authoritarian government to look unstoppable from the outsi

by jquery 5y ago

So what’s your big plan? Sounds like fatalism to me, and I’m not buying it. China is just the latest authoritarian government to look unstoppable from the outside just like the USSR once did. It does not have the internal agility necessary to thrive long term. Already China’s diplomatic “wolf warriors” are making fools of China on the international stage, and China is increasingly unable to pragmatically adjust. This ossification will continue under Xi.

asdweasdawe 5y ago
I feel like different people have different views depending how close they are geographically or financially to China. I don't think the diplomatic "wolf warriors" has any effect on anything tangible. It's not like international stage laughing has slowed down China's geographical expansion so far. I doubt it'll be the doom of the West anytime soon but it's not going to be pretty for countries near China in the next 20 years. For countries next to China, it's probably about how bad the terms can be, how much land/sea they can keep* and whether that comes later or sooner. The big plan is to help those countries develop and slow down China influence's expansion. I do think as the population become more educated, more liberal values will take hold so maybe more Western education can help. However, Chinese government control is quite vast and they are flexible as well. China is also doing very well economically so it's easier to turn a blind eye to stuffs. * One aspect that can delay this is the Freedom of navigation operations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_navigation#FONOPs_in_the_South_China_Sea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_navigation#FONOPs_i...
riffraff 5y ago
> Already China’s diplomatic “wolf warriors” are making fools of China on the international stage What do you mean by this?
- emptysongglass 5y ago
  It's to describe the habit of Chinese diplomats and other mouthpieces of the CCP to threaten and verbally assault other nations when China is criticised.
adventured 5y ago
It doesn't sound like fatalism at all. Recognizing and accepting reality - things as they actually are - isn't the same thing as being fatalistic. As opposed to being wildly delusional about the context for example, which is the guiding philosophy of the do-something-to-stop-China cohort. You can't stop China as they imagine it and thinking that it's possible is quite irrational. Doing a conservative extrapolation on China's economy and understanding how much larger they're going to be than eg the EU given another, say, 20 years, is not fatalism either. It's obvious that China is already exceeding Russia militarily, and the trend is extreme (not subtle), so the gap will get a lot bigger in the next 10-20 years accordingly. That too is not fatalism. Accepting the bounds and facts of reality is not fatalism, rather, it's a necessary first requirement to then be able to generate a practical, rational course of action. Who said I have a big plan. Why should it be big? What difference would a big plan make against China, it would never (should never) get off the drawing board. The Pentagon has lots of big plans; ask them about their big plans for the Middle East in the 1990s, or their big plans for Vietnam in the 1960s, or Russia in the 1990s. Pretending things are not as they are, is how you get big disastrous plans of the sort the Pentagon is good at coming up with. That's how Iraq happens, that's how Syria happens. A superpower with a big plan to contain another superpower a world away - gee, that doesn't have an obvious outcome does it. So the US burns its treasure to contain China, while China doesn't burn its treasure to contain the US, the outcome to that is straight-forward (and again, also not fatalism; we don't have to behave that way). The US will expend most of its effort punching itself in the face, while China focuses on extending regional dominance. China doesn't have to go anywhere, it's their backyard; the US has to expend great resources just to be there. It is not the job of the US to change or contain China, it's highly questionable whether we could contain China much at all, and it's not at all necessary in order for our people to prosper. Similarly, China doesn't have to contain the US for their people to prosper (as witnessed by the past 30 years). Just like we don't need to invade Venezuela, Iran, Myanmar or North Korea so that our people can prosper. The US is in desperate need of a priority adjustment: we need to start improving the lives of our people, or else. I have a modest plan, which is all that is in reach of the US to achieve in the next few decades. The US is going bankrupt at the Federal level, it has to monetize ever greater sums of its own junk paper to continue normal government function (ie it has to steal from the wealth of its population to keep the lights on). Social spending obligations will continue soaring for decades yet, as such the US faces a dramatic reckoning of having to choose between playing global military superpower and the welfare of its own people. It can no longer do both. The cap on what the US can do in Asia is quite clear. Just start from: "not much," and you'll be in the right neighborhood. Just ask North Korea about their nukes. Maybe the US will sail a few boats off of China's coast, through the Straight, very exciting stuff. A modest plan that the US can actually put into action that is focused on its own people, not on the absurd notion of a superpower from North America pretending it can afford to contain or control a superpower in Asia. Sure, China will ossify, somewhat, under Xi. That's unavoidable in a dictatorship. They still have slack to fill out yet, easy gains. They still have a couple hundred million people living on ~$5-$7 or less per day. A quarter of their population is still living a third-world lifestyle. Lifting those people up to the economic level of Bulgaria will add trillions to their economy; things like that are easy wins for China. Technological advancement is not difficult for China, with or without Xi, so they'll continue to make rapid progress in military, tech, space, aerospace, biotech, etc. Momentum often carries large systems a great distance even after they stop functioning well (just ask the US). China isn't done building out its national infrastructure either, they have decades left of that yet. They still have exceptionally inefficient farming, which can be boosted to first-tier levels. They still have a lot of nuclear & renewable energy to build out. There are another two billion new consumers to be born in the next 30 years, to be fulfilled by China's manufacturing. The China economic engine isn't going to stop because of Xi, he's restricting and damaging their max potential. China is still a boulder rolling down a hill as far as Asia is concerned.
jollybean 5y ago
Russia looked unstoppable from the outside, but from the inside it was crumbling. China is not crumbling. They don't have a controlled economy in the direct way that the Russians did, and as long as they have economic prosperity ... they'll do just fine. I don't see them screwing that up. It doesn't matter that much who's diplomats look like fools, it matters what the GDP is, how powerful the military is, how much control and leverage they have. China probably will never do well on 'soft power' but they're going to probably do just fine with 'regular power' for the forseeable future.
- skissane 5y ago
  China faces some big challenges moving in to the future. One is the demographic challenge of a declining population. Most Western countries face a similar challenge of low births, but many of them significantly counteract it through mass immigration; China however doesn't have that and shows no signs of being open to introducing it. Another is that many people will put up with an authoritarian system as long as they see it producing high-levels of economic growth, but it is unlikely that China can sustain those high levels forever, and people may prove less willing to put up with the lack of freedom in worse economic times. Another is that while China is good at playing technological catch-up it still hasn't demonstrated much capacity to produce genuinely original technological innovations. And here there is the argument that open societies have an inherent advantage in producing those innovations over authoritarian societies such as China. If that is true, then that is going to give the US and its allies a permanent economic advantage over China. These challenges are not going to be the immediate downfall of the CCP. But in another 30 or 40 years?
  - throwaway2048 5y ago
    its dangerous to assume that somehow the natural state of people is to "not put up with the lack of freedom". That was the entire lie peddled with respect to opening trade with china from the west to begin with, and look at the results.
  - jollybean 5y ago
    China is beyond playing 'catch up'. They might not be making the world's best software or jet engines, but they are making their own innovations in a wide variety of areas. I don't think they will ever become the export powerhouse like the US, but we will see them move up the chain. A lot of the low-level R&D in products already comes from China. Also - the Chinese will put up with authoritarian culture because 1) they look at it entirely differently 2) they've never known anything else and especially 3) the surveillance of the CCP is orwellian. They will never let any idea challenge their status. The Chinese population at large will never have the opportunity to explore any alternative but what is told to them. Within that bubble, most are 'fine with it'. Frankly, so long as China tried to have some kind of independendent judiciary and weren't putting people in prison for their ethnicity ... or kind of following the Singapore model I think the 'Rest of the World' would have no problems. And of course, if they weren't grabbing chunks of international waters as their own.
dirtyid 5y ago
> “wolf warriors” are making fools of China on the international stag Firm commitment to XJ / HK crackdown, wolf warrior diplomacy and counter sanctions are sensible strategy that's paying off tangibly counter to western reporting. PRC showing teeth on core-issues is setting norms to be treated as large player who can act with relative impunity on core-interests (like US), demonstrating unwavering commitment and mitigating cost to future actions (read: Taiwan). How many PRC elites have been extradited after PRC retaliated over Meng, how many (non-US) sanctions after PRC clapped back when EU thought it could sanction cost free? None. PRC is seeking level of impunity commiserate with status as #2 global power, and seeing how watered down / theatric diplomatic statements that followed US meetings with partners have been, it's working. Very few countries are credibly committed to PRC containment. >unable to pragmatically adjust There's a reason every major bloc is copying PRC's industrial policies. Because it's pragmatic and more agile.
pasabagi 5y ago
The USSR and China aren't really comparable. At its height, the USSR had an economy about 60% of the size of the US's. The idea of the USSR as a threat to the USA (or even core US allies) was basically american paranoia in the post-Stalin era. What's more, a lot of the institutional dysfunction of the USSR was the legacy of Stalinism - it's hard to have a healthy society when everybody is used to being terrified of the man in charge. China is already much bigger in terms of relative economy than the USSR ever was. Frankly, I doubt that they are an 'opponent' to the US in the sense that China hawks would have it, but they are way more credible as a 'superpower' than the USSR ever was. The USSR just had a lot of soft power with people in the global south because ex-colonies are typically not that keen on the world order established by their colonizers.

by jquery 5y ago

asdweasdawe 5y ago

I feel like different people have different views depending how close they are geographically or financially to China. I don't think the diplomatic "wolf warriors" has any effect on anything tangible. It's not like international stage laughing has slowed down China's geographical expansion so far. I doubt it'll be the doom of the West anytime soon but it's not going to be pretty for countries near China in the next 20 years. For countries next to China, it's probably about how bad the terms can be, how much land/sea they can keep* and whether that comes later or sooner. The big plan is to help those countries develop and slow down China influence's expansion. I do think as the population become more educated, more liberal values will take hold so maybe more Western education can help. However, Chinese government control is quite vast and they are flexible as well. China is also doing very well economically so it's easier to turn a blind eye to stuffs. * One aspect that can delay this is the Freedom of navigation operations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_navigation#FONOPs_in_the_South_China_Sea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_navigation#FONOPs_i...

riffraff 5y ago

> Already China’s diplomatic “wolf warriors” are making fools of China on the international stage What do you mean by this?

emptysongglass 5y ago
It's to describe the habit of Chinese diplomats and other mouthpieces of the CCP to threaten and verbally assault other nations when China is criticised.

adventured 5y ago

It doesn't sound like fatalism at all. Recognizing and accepting reality - things as they actually are - isn't the same thing as being fatalistic. As opposed to being wildly delusional about the context for example, which is the guiding philosophy of the do-something-to-stop-China cohort. You can't stop China as they imagine it and thinking that it's possible is quite irrational. Doing a conservative extrapolation on China's economy and understanding how much larger they're going to be than eg the EU given another, say, 20 years, is not fatalism either. It's obvious that China is already exceeding Russia militarily, and the trend is extreme (not subtle), so the gap will get a lot bigger in the next 10-20 years accordingly. That too is not fatalism. Accepting the bounds and facts of reality is not fatalism, rather, it's a necessary first requirement to then be able to generate a practical, rational course of action. Who said I have a big plan. Why should it be big? What difference would a big plan make against China, it would never (should never) get off the drawing board. The Pentagon has lots of big plans; ask them about their big plans for the Middle East in the 1990s, or their big plans for Vietnam in the 1960s, or Russia in the 1990s. Pretending things are not as they are, is how you get big disastrous plans of the sort the Pentagon is good at coming up with. That's how Iraq happens, that's how Syria happens. A superpower with a big plan to contain another superpower a world away - gee, that doesn't have an obvious outcome does it. So the US burns its treasure to contain China, while China doesn't burn its treasure to contain the US, the outcome to that is straight-forward (and again, also not fatalism; we don't have to behave that way). The US will expend most of its effort punching itself in the face, while China focuses on extending regional dominance. China doesn't have to go anywhere, it's their backyard; the US has to expend great resources just to be there. It is not the job of the US to change or contain China, it's highly questionable whether we could contain China much at all, and it's not at all necessary in order for our people to prosper. Similarly, China doesn't have to contain the US for their people to prosper (as witnessed by the past 30 years). Just like we don't need to invade Venezuela, Iran, Myanmar or North Korea so that our people can prosper. The US is in desperate need of a priority adjustment: we need to start improving the lives of our people, or else. I have a modest plan, which is all that is in reach of the US to achieve in the next few decades. The US is going bankrupt at the Federal level, it has to monetize ever greater sums of its own junk paper to continue normal government function (ie it has to steal from the wealth of its population to keep the lights on). Social spending obligations will continue soaring for decades yet, as such the US faces a dramatic reckoning of having to choose between playing global military superpower and the welfare of its own people. It can no longer do both. The cap on what the US can do in Asia is quite clear. Just start from: "not much," and you'll be in the right neighborhood. Just ask North Korea about their nukes. Maybe the US will sail a few boats off of China's coast, through the Straight, very exciting stuff. A modest plan that the US can actually put into action that is focused on its own people, not on the absurd notion of a superpower from North America pretending it can afford to contain or control a superpower in Asia. Sure, China will ossify, somewhat, under Xi. That's unavoidable in a dictatorship. They still have slack to fill out yet, easy gains. They still have a couple hundred million people living on ~$5-$7 or less per day. A quarter of their population is still living a third-world lifestyle. Lifting those people up to the economic level of Bulgaria will add trillions to their economy; things like that are easy wins for China. Technological advancement is not difficult for China, with or without Xi, so they'll continue to make rapid progress in military, tech, space, aerospace, biotech, etc. Momentum often carries large systems a great distance even after they stop functioning well (just ask the US). China isn't done building out its national infrastructure either, they have decades left of that yet. They still have exceptionally inefficient farming, which can be boosted to first-tier levels. They still have a lot of nuclear & renewable energy to build out. There are another two billion new consumers to be born in the next 30 years, to be fulfilled by China's manufacturing. The China economic engine isn't going to stop because of Xi, he's restricting and damaging their max potential. China is still a boulder rolling down a hill as far as Asia is concerned.

jollybean 5y ago

Russia looked unstoppable from the outside, but from the inside it was crumbling. China is not crumbling. They don't have a controlled economy in the direct way that the Russians did, and as long as they have economic prosperity ... they'll do just fine. I don't see them screwing that up. It doesn't matter that much who's diplomats look like fools, it matters what the GDP is, how powerful the military is, how much control and leverage they have. China probably will never do well on 'soft power' but they're going to probably do just fine with 'regular power' for the forseeable future.

skissane 5y ago
China faces some big challenges moving in to the future. One is the demographic challenge of a declining population. Most Western countries face a similar challenge of low births, but many of them significantly counteract it through mass immigration; China however doesn't have that and shows no signs of being open to introducing it. Another is that many people will put up with an authoritarian system as long as they see it producing high-levels of economic growth, but it is unlikely that China can sustain those high levels forever, and people may prove less willing to put up with the lack of freedom in worse economic times. Another is that while China is good at playing technological catch-up it still hasn't demonstrated much capacity to produce genuinely original technological innovations. And here there is the argument that open societies have an inherent advantage in producing those innovations over authoritarian societies such as China. If that is true, then that is going to give the US and its allies a permanent economic advantage over China. These challenges are not going to be the immediate downfall of the CCP. But in another 30 or 40 years?
- throwaway2048 5y ago
  its dangerous to assume that somehow the natural state of people is to "not put up with the lack of freedom". That was the entire lie peddled with respect to opening trade with china from the west to begin with, and look at the results.
- jollybean 5y ago
  China is beyond playing 'catch up'. They might not be making the world's best software or jet engines, but they are making their own innovations in a wide variety of areas. I don't think they will ever become the export powerhouse like the US, but we will see them move up the chain. A lot of the low-level R&D in products already comes from China. Also - the Chinese will put up with authoritarian culture because 1) they look at it entirely differently 2) they've never known anything else and especially 3) the surveillance of the CCP is orwellian. They will never let any idea challenge their status. The Chinese population at large will never have the opportunity to explore any alternative but what is told to them. Within that bubble, most are 'fine with it'. Frankly, so long as China tried to have some kind of independendent judiciary and weren't putting people in prison for their ethnicity ... or kind of following the Singapore model I think the 'Rest of the World' would have no problems. And of course, if they weren't grabbing chunks of international waters as their own.

dirtyid 5y ago

> “wolf warriors” are making fools of China on the international stag Firm commitment to XJ / HK crackdown, wolf warrior diplomacy and counter sanctions are sensible strategy that's paying off tangibly counter to western reporting. PRC showing teeth on core-issues is setting norms to be treated as large player who can act with relative impunity on core-interests (like US), demonstrating unwavering commitment and mitigating cost to future actions (read: Taiwan). How many PRC elites have been extradited after PRC retaliated over Meng, how many (non-US) sanctions after PRC clapped back when EU thought it could sanction cost free? None. PRC is seeking level of impunity commiserate with status as #2 global power, and seeing how watered down / theatric diplomatic statements that followed US meetings with partners have been, it's working. Very few countries are credibly committed to PRC containment. >unable to pragmatically adjust There's a reason every major bloc is copying PRC's industrial policies. Because it's pragmatic and more agile.

pasabagi 5y ago

The USSR and China aren't really comparable. At its height, the USSR had an economy about 60% of the size of the US's. The idea of the USSR as a threat to the USA (or even core US allies) was basically american paranoia in the post-Stalin era. What's more, a lot of the institutional dysfunction of the USSR was the legacy of Stalinism - it's hard to have a healthy society when everybody is used to being terrified of the man in charge. China is already much bigger in terms of relative economy than the USSR ever was. Frankly, I doubt that they are an 'opponent' to the US in the sense that China hawks would have it, but they are way more credible as a 'superpower' than the USSR ever was. The USSR just had a lot of soft power with people in the global south because ex-colonies are typically not that keen on the world order established by their colonizers.