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In the current climate if the US doesn't move nobody will (or it will just be a "look at me" gesture) Why do I think so? Because the US accumulated that unprec

In the current climate if the US doesn't move nobody will (or it will just be a "look at me" gesture) Why do I think so? Because the US accumulated that unprecedented power you refer to, and Japan or GB or Canada trying anything from themselves just means they'll be pissing in the wind until the US decides to do it as well. The EU seems to me the only exception to that, but then I am not sure its majority sees a big difference between dealing with China instead of dealing with the US. PS: GB already offers specific routes for HK residents to come over.

adventured 5y ago
There are no actions the US, EU, Japan & Co. can collective take that will alter China's political system from the outside. It's why whenever people talk about ganging up on China, they're always extremely vague about it. That's because it's entirely bunk. Do something! What? Something! Do a thing! Which thing? The thing! It's identical to bumper stickers that (used to) say: Save Tibet, it's largely empty virtue signaling or wishful thinking. It's not realistic. You can sanction them. It does not matter. You can stop all trade with them. It does not matter. They're free standing now, their domestic consumer market doesn't need the US & EU. Their banks don't need outside financing. Their government doesn't need outside financing. Their households have $65-$80 trillion in wealth. They don't require the West's technology trade, they can clone most of it. And so on. The world population count will add two plus billion people outside of the US, Europe and Japan in the next ~30-35 years. Those people will all do business with China, no matter what the US/EU/Japan do. Those 2.x billion people will represent an economy comparable to the EU. Trump's Admin took a severe counter-China / stop-China position (as staunch as we'll ever see in the US), it made no significant difference. China is more powerful now than they were five years ago, both economically and militarily. Their share of global manufacturing has never been higher. Their military can't be opposed anywhere near their borders, they're the world's clear #2 military now, and are increasingly superior to Russia (which can't come close to keeping up in either hardware numbers or technology at this point). At the rate that China's military capabilities are accelerating, they'll easily be twice as powerful militarily overall as Russia within the decade, including having at least four aircraft carriers and a vastly superior space program to what Russia has. Russia will soon be a joke compared to China in military terms (which tells you what the EU is going to look like next to China). So, there's zero threat to pose to China militarily to alter their behavior. The US also has no interest in committing suicide to fight with China, eg over Taiwan. The odds are that Taiwan is already gone, it's just a matter of buying as much time as possible to diversify off of relying on Taiwan for tech manufacturing. The US plan is to make it difficult on China, to add expensive drag to the context, everyone in DC knows the US can't stop China from taking Taiwan if they want it. And China is going to keep getting stronger in most respects for the next decade or two. During that time Russia will be entirely stagnant, and so will most of Europe. China will tower over everyone except the US (China will have an economy twice the size of the EU given a few decades). The US will be borderline stagnant (average US growth will continue to push toward zero across this decade and next, a long-term trend), as it can't afford its present level of military spending or government spending at all. Meanwhile China's military spending and capabilities will expand while the US capabilities go sideways or contract. China knows all of this, time is on their side. What's left? Nothing. Attempts would be feeble at best, it would change nothing. We're 30 years past the time to try to flip or contain China, if it was ever possible to begin with. The sole reason to blockade China today (politically, economically), is for your own moral reasons (which is an entirely fine reason), not to try to change China (which isn't possible) or otherwise meaningfully restrict them. The West de facto blockaded Soviet Russia for decades, however that's not what stopped them, that's not what collapsed their system. The West barely traded with the USSR. It took 3/4 of a century for that monstrosity to fail regardless. China's system is at least several times more sustainable at this point than the USSR ever was, and dramatically more potent economically. Whatever change might happen in China will be of their own doing. Whatever leadership follows Xi will be the next opportunity for the people of China to have a shot at altering their trajectory. That could easily be decades away yet. China is unlikely to ever liberalize, the best you're ever going to get is either Deng Xiaoping or Xi/Mao in terms of authoritarianism; it's for exactly the same reason Russia will never liberalize, there is no other means to hold their territory together other than through authoritarianism, it would immediately begin to unspool otherwise. Things that would not exist organically/naturally (such as the USSR, or Russia's present territory), will cease to exist unless you hold them together through great actions of force. Tibet and Hong Kong do not willingly belong to China, nor will Taiwan, as an example of that in action.
- Clewza313 5y ago
  The obvious counterweight to China is India, which has a similar population and a rapidly growing economy. However, they're several decades behind China on all fronts (economy, wealth, education, infrastructure, you name it) and with Modi at the helm and COVID continuing to wreak havoc it's entirely plausible that they go into reverse gear again.
  - jquery 5y ago
    Modi is a wicked man. It’s really sad what’s happening in India. I wouldn’t say India is several decades behind China on all fronts, though. Cultural exports (Bollywood) are on par with China. It’s hard to produce exportable culture under severe authoritarian regimes.
  - adventured 5y ago
    India offers no counterweight in the next few decades. They offer considerable further weight, that much is true. As you note, they're running decades behind. There's some hope that the West & Co. can bolster India, accelerate their ability to help stand up to China in the region. The US will need all the help it can get, as it will be unable to continue to serve that role on its own. When the US was 10 to 1 or 5 to 1 vs China, as in the past (1970-2005), it was still not an easy task to wrestle with them; when the US is 1 to 1 vs China (and in their backyard), forget about it. It's just an incredible gap for India though. By the time India gets to $5 trillion in GDP (from $3t now), China will be up at $22-$23 trillion or so, and far larger than the EU. The US adds an economy the size of Japan or Germany every seven or eight years and it's still not enough to counter China. India realistically can't help any more than Japan does. It's a modest push-back potential, some limited regional containment. China does at least value having a veneer of global respect. All authoritarian systems want others to pretend they're moral, to pretend that they deserve respect. They always crave that. That's why the USSR and North Korea always wanted recognition from the US, they crave that fake uneared stature, which they can earn no other way with their type of system (systems that rule solely through extreme violence and force, rather than through any manner of democracy and human rights). Besides all the economic matters, nobody is going to full-on war with China, and that includes India. I just don't see what significant difference India makes, unless we're talking about the year 2070. Certainly it's far better to have India as added weight on the scales, but it still doesn't matter in terms of altering China's thinking or behavior. The other problem, is that India really can't offer much assistance in restraining China in the Asia Pacific region, which is where most of China's more serious ambitions are in the next few decades.
riffraff 5y ago
The EU foreign policy needs unanimity, and some of the governments (mostly Hungary right now) will not allow it to take positions against abusive dictatorships. So it'll be many years before the EU becomes a foreign policy power.
- extraAccount 5y ago
  The EU has a lot of domestic problems it is trying to address. It is in no position to try to deal with China.
  - gogopuppygogo 5y ago
    Britain and the USA 🇺🇸 needed Russia to break the last axis power. This war will be economic but will be far more global than previous wars.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - foepys 5y ago
    China is also Germany's second largest trading partner. France and Germany basically head the EU, so it's very unlikely that the EU will take a strong stance against China until this changes.
dankboys 5y ago
China are probably judging the chances of a US response based on the response when Assad breached POTUS’ red line: nothing.
- ivalm 5y ago
  I hate Xi but what exactly do you want the US to do other than a strongly worded proclamation?
  - mschuster91 5y ago
    Invest into manufacturing and infrastructure on US, European, African and Southern American soil. The leverage that China has is that way too many Western nations and companies have both their supply chain and the only market that is growing in China. By investing into a "Western New Belt Road" - not just in terms of infrastructure, but also in other measures like stabilization by drying out the market of drug cartels via legalization or military peacekeeping operations - the EU, India and US combined could turn the tide against China.
    - fighterpilot 5y ago
      What are the reasons China has been so successful in taking up the role of the world's manufacturer and other developing countries haven't?
      - mschuster91 5y ago
        A reckless disregard for any kind of protection - no matter if for workers or the environment -, generous government subsidies, and an abundance of young and healthy workers ready to be exploited. Network effects have done the rest, see e.g. https://hackaday.com/2016/02/07/bunnies-guide-to-shenzhen-electronics/ https://hackaday.com/2016/02/07/bunnies-guide-to-shenzhen-el...
      - powerapple 5y ago
        What China did was to use market in exchange for access of technology. Many developing countries do not have such ambition, are happy to be in the same position forever.
digianarchist 5y ago
> GB already offers specific routes for HK residents to come over. Canada too.

adventured 5y ago

There are no actions the US, EU, Japan & Co. can collective take that will alter China's political system from the outside. It's why whenever people talk about ganging up on China, they're always extremely vague about it. That's because it's entirely bunk. Do something! What? Something! Do a thing! Which thing? The thing! It's identical to bumper stickers that (used to) say: Save Tibet, it's largely empty virtue signaling or wishful thinking. It's not realistic. You can sanction them. It does not matter. You can stop all trade with them. It does not matter. They're free standing now, their domestic consumer market doesn't need the US & EU. Their banks don't need outside financing. Their government doesn't need outside financing. Their households have $65-$80 trillion in wealth. They don't require the West's technology trade, they can clone most of it. And so on. The world population count will add two plus billion people outside of the US, Europe and Japan in the next ~30-35 years. Those people will all do business with China, no matter what the US/EU/Japan do. Those 2.x billion people will represent an economy comparable to the EU. Trump's Admin took a severe counter-China / stop-China position (as staunch as we'll ever see in the US), it made no significant difference. China is more powerful now than they were five years ago, both economically and militarily. Their share of global manufacturing has never been higher. Their military can't be opposed anywhere near their borders, they're the world's clear #2 military now, and are increasingly superior to Russia (which can't come close to keeping up in either hardware numbers or technology at this point). At the rate that China's military capabilities are accelerating, they'll easily be twice as powerful militarily overall as Russia within the decade, including having at least four aircraft carriers and a vastly superior space program to what Russia has. Russia will soon be a joke compared to China in military terms (which tells you what the EU is going to look like next to China). So, there's zero threat to pose to China militarily to alter their behavior. The US also has no interest in committing suicide to fight with China, eg over Taiwan. The odds are that Taiwan is already gone, it's just a matter of buying as much time as possible to diversify off of relying on Taiwan for tech manufacturing. The US plan is to make it difficult on China, to add expensive drag to the context, everyone in DC knows the US can't stop China from taking Taiwan if they want it. And China is going to keep getting stronger in most respects for the next decade or two. During that time Russia will be entirely stagnant, and so will most of Europe. China will tower over everyone except the US (China will have an economy twice the size of the EU given a few decades). The US will be borderline stagnant (average US growth will continue to push toward zero across this decade and next, a long-term trend), as it can't afford its present level of military spending or government spending at all. Meanwhile China's military spending and capabilities will expand while the US capabilities go sideways or contract. China knows all of this, time is on their side. What's left? Nothing. Attempts would be feeble at best, it would change nothing. We're 30 years past the time to try to flip or contain China, if it was ever possible to begin with. The sole reason to blockade China today (politically, economically), is for your own moral reasons (which is an entirely fine reason), not to try to change China (which isn't possible) or otherwise meaningfully restrict them. The West de facto blockaded Soviet Russia for decades, however that's not what stopped them, that's not what collapsed their system. The West barely traded with the USSR. It took 3/4 of a century for that monstrosity to fail regardless. China's system is at least several times more sustainable at this point than the USSR ever was, and dramatically more potent economically. Whatever change might happen in China will be of their own doing. Whatever leadership follows Xi will be the next opportunity for the people of China to have a shot at altering their trajectory. That could easily be decades away yet. China is unlikely to ever liberalize, the best you're ever going to get is either Deng Xiaoping or Xi/Mao in terms of authoritarianism; it's for exactly the same reason Russia will never liberalize, there is no other means to hold their territory together other than through authoritarianism, it would immediately begin to unspool otherwise. Things that would not exist organically/naturally (such as the USSR, or Russia's present territory), will cease to exist unless you hold them together through great actions of force. Tibet and Hong Kong do not willingly belong to China, nor will Taiwan, as an example of that in action.

Clewza313 5y ago
The obvious counterweight to China is India, which has a similar population and a rapidly growing economy. However, they're several decades behind China on all fronts (economy, wealth, education, infrastructure, you name it) and with Modi at the helm and COVID continuing to wreak havoc it's entirely plausible that they go into reverse gear again.
- jquery 5y ago
  Modi is a wicked man. It’s really sad what’s happening in India. I wouldn’t say India is several decades behind China on all fronts, though. Cultural exports (Bollywood) are on par with China. It’s hard to produce exportable culture under severe authoritarian regimes.
- adventured 5y ago
  India offers no counterweight in the next few decades. They offer considerable further weight, that much is true. As you note, they're running decades behind. There's some hope that the West & Co. can bolster India, accelerate their ability to help stand up to China in the region. The US will need all the help it can get, as it will be unable to continue to serve that role on its own. When the US was 10 to 1 or 5 to 1 vs China, as in the past (1970-2005), it was still not an easy task to wrestle with them; when the US is 1 to 1 vs China (and in their backyard), forget about it. It's just an incredible gap for India though. By the time India gets to $5 trillion in GDP (from $3t now), China will be up at $22-$23 trillion or so, and far larger than the EU. The US adds an economy the size of Japan or Germany every seven or eight years and it's still not enough to counter China. India realistically can't help any more than Japan does. It's a modest push-back potential, some limited regional containment. China does at least value having a veneer of global respect. All authoritarian systems want others to pretend they're moral, to pretend that they deserve respect. They always crave that. That's why the USSR and North Korea always wanted recognition from the US, they crave that fake uneared stature, which they can earn no other way with their type of system (systems that rule solely through extreme violence and force, rather than through any manner of democracy and human rights). Besides all the economic matters, nobody is going to full-on war with China, and that includes India. I just don't see what significant difference India makes, unless we're talking about the year 2070. Certainly it's far better to have India as added weight on the scales, but it still doesn't matter in terms of altering China's thinking or behavior. The other problem, is that India really can't offer much assistance in restraining China in the Asia Pacific region, which is where most of China's more serious ambitions are in the next few decades.

riffraff 5y ago

The EU foreign policy needs unanimity, and some of the governments (mostly Hungary right now) will not allow it to take positions against abusive dictatorships. So it'll be many years before the EU becomes a foreign policy power.

extraAccount 5y ago
The EU has a lot of domestic problems it is trying to address. It is in no position to try to deal with China.
- gogopuppygogo 5y ago
  Britain and the USA 🇺🇸 needed Russia to break the last axis power. This war will be economic but will be far more global than previous wars.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- foepys 5y ago
  China is also Germany's second largest trading partner. France and Germany basically head the EU, so it's very unlikely that the EU will take a strong stance against China until this changes.

dankboys 5y ago

China are probably judging the chances of a US response based on the response when Assad breached POTUS’ red line: nothing.

ivalm 5y ago
I hate Xi but what exactly do you want the US to do other than a strongly worded proclamation?
- mschuster91 5y ago
  Invest into manufacturing and infrastructure on US, European, African and Southern American soil. The leverage that China has is that way too many Western nations and companies have both their supply chain and the only market that is growing in China. By investing into a "Western New Belt Road" - not just in terms of infrastructure, but also in other measures like stabilization by drying out the market of drug cartels via legalization or military peacekeeping operations - the EU, India and US combined could turn the tide against China.
  - fighterpilot 5y ago
    What are the reasons China has been so successful in taking up the role of the world's manufacturer and other developing countries haven't?
    - mschuster91 5y ago
      A reckless disregard for any kind of protection - no matter if for workers or the environment -, generous government subsidies, and an abundance of young and healthy workers ready to be exploited. Network effects have done the rest, see e.g. https://hackaday.com/2016/02/07/bunnies-guide-to-shenzhen-electronics/ https://hackaday.com/2016/02/07/bunnies-guide-to-shenzhen-el...
    - powerapple 5y ago
      What China did was to use market in exchange for access of technology. Many developing countries do not have such ambition, are happy to be in the same position forever.

digianarchist 5y ago

> GB already offers specific routes for HK residents to come over. Canada too.