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This is tragic, the US, Japan, Canada, GB, AUS, the EU need to band together to counter China’s egregious rights abuses instead of solely pursuing their own bus
by typeformer 5y ago
This is tragic, the US, Japan, Canada, GB, AUS, the EU need to band together to counter China’s egregious rights abuses instead of solely pursuing their own business and national interests. They could all offer residency programs for the bright students and others that are currently suffocating there. China can’t punish all these countries together. If no one stands up Taiwan will be next to fall and then China would have unprecedented power by controlling the chip industry….
- makeitdouble 5y agoIn the current climate if the US doesn't move nobody will (or it will just be a "look at me" gesture) Why do I think so? Because the US accumulated that unprecedented power you refer to, and Japan or GB or Canada trying anything from themselves just means they'll be pissing in the wind until the US decides to do it as well. The EU seems to me the only exception to that, but then I am not sure its majority sees a big difference between dealing with China instead of dealing with the US. PS: GB already offers specific routes for HK residents to come over.
- adventured 5y agoThere are no actions the US, EU, Japan & Co. can collective take that will alter China's political system from the outside. It's why whenever people talk about ganging up on China, they're always extremely vague about it. That's because it's entirely bunk. Do something! What? Something! Do a thing! Which thing? The thing! It's identical to bumper stickers that (used to) say: Save Tibet, it's largely empty virtue signaling or wishful thinking. It's not realistic. You can sanction them. It does not matter. You can stop all trade with them. It does not matter. They're free standing now, their domestic consumer market doesn't need the US & EU. Their banks don't need outside financing. Their government doesn't need outside financing. Their households have $65-$80 trillion in wealth. They don't require the West's technology trade, they can clone most of it. And so on. The world population count will add two plus billion people outside of the US, Europe and Japan in the next ~30-35 years. Those people will all do business with China, no matter what the US/EU/Japan do. Those 2.x billion people will represent an economy comparable to the EU. Trump's Admin took a severe counter-China / stop-China position (as staunch as we'll ever see in the US), it made no significant difference. China is more powerful now than they were five years ago, both economically and militarily. Their share of global manufacturing has never been higher. Their military can't be opposed anywhere near their borders, they're the world's clear #2 military now, and are increasingly superior to Russia (which can't come close to keeping up in either hardware numbers or technology at this point). At the rate that China's military capabilities are accelerating, they'll easily be twice as powerful militarily overall as Russia within the decade, including having at least four aircraft carriers and a vastly superior space program to what Russia has. Russia will soon be a joke compared to China in military terms (which tells you what the EU is going to look like next to China). So, there's zero threat to pose to China militarily to alter their behavior. The US also has no interest in committing suicide to fight with China, eg over Taiwan. The odds are that Taiwan is already gone, it's just a matter of buying as much time as possible to diversify off of relying on Taiwan for tech manufacturing. The US plan is to make it difficult on China, to add expensive drag to the context, everyone in DC knows the US can't stop China from taking Taiwan if they want it. And China is going to keep getting stronger in most respects for the next decade or two. During that time Russia will be entirely stagnant, and so will most of Europe. China will tower over everyone except the US (China will have an economy twice the size of the EU given a few decades). The US will be borderline stagnant (average US growth will continue to push toward zero across this decade and next, a long-term trend), as it can't afford its present level of military spending or government spending at all. Meanwhile China's military spending and capabilities will expand while the US capabilities go sideways or contract. China knows all of this, time is on their side. What's left? Nothing. Attempts would be feeble at best, it would change nothing. We're 30 years past the time to try to flip or contain China, if it was ever possible to begin with. The sole reason to blockade China today (politically, economically), is for your own moral reasons (which is an entirely fine reason), not to try to change China (which isn't possible) or otherwise meaningfully restrict them. The West de facto blockaded Soviet Russia for decades, however that's not what stopped them, that's not what collapsed their system. The West barely traded with the USSR. It took 3/4 of a century for that monstrosity to fail regardless. China's system is at least several times more sustainable at this point than the USSR ever was, and dramatically more potent economically. Whatever change might happen in China will be of their own doing. Whatever leadership follows Xi will be the next opportunity for the people of China to have a shot at altering their trajectory. That could easily be decades away yet. China is unlikely to ever liberalize, the best you're ever going to get is either Deng Xiaoping or Xi/Mao in terms of authoritarianism; it's for exactly the same reason Russia will never liberalize, there is no other means to hold their territory together other than through authoritarianism, it would immediately begin to unspool otherwise. Things that would not exist organically/naturally (such as the USSR, or Russia's present territory), will cease to exist unless you hold them together through great actions of force. Tibet and Hong Kong do not willingly belong to China, nor will Taiwan, as an example of that in action.
- Clewza313 5y agoThe obvious counterweight to China is India, which has a similar population and a rapidly growing economy. However, they're several decades behind China on all fronts (economy, wealth, education, infrastructure, you name it) and with Modi at the helm and COVID continuing to wreak havoc it's entirely plausible that they go into reverse gear again.
- jquery 5y agoModi is a wicked man. It’s really sad what’s happening in India. I wouldn’t say India is several decades behind China on all fronts, though. Cultural exports (Bollywood) are on par with China. It’s hard to produce exportable culture under severe authoritarian regimes.
- adventured 5y agoIndia offers no counterweight in the next few decades. They offer considerable further weight, that much is true. As you note, they're running decades behind. There's some hope that the West & Co. can bolster India, accelerate their ability to help stand up to China in the region. The US will need all the help it can get, as it will be unable to continue to serve that role on its own. When the US was 10 to 1 or 5 to 1 vs China, as in the past (1970-2005), it was still not an easy task to wrestle with them; when the US is 1 to 1 vs China (and in their backyard), forget about it. It's just an incredible gap for India though. By the time India gets to $5 trillion in GDP (from $3t now), China will be up at $22-$23 trillion or so, and far larger than the EU. The US adds an economy the size of Japan or Germany every seven or eight years and it's still not enough to counter China. India realistically can't help any more than Japan does. It's a modest push-back potential, some limited regional containment. China does at least value having a veneer of global respect. All authoritarian systems want others to pretend they're moral, to pretend that they deserve respect. They always crave that. That's why the USSR and North Korea always wanted recognition from the US, they crave that fake uneared stature, which they can earn no other way with their type of system (systems that rule solely through extreme violence and force, rather than through any manner of democracy and human rights). Besides all the economic matters, nobody is going to full-on war with China, and that includes India. I just don't see what significant difference India makes, unless we're talking about the year 2070. Certainly it's far better to have India as added weight on the scales, but it still doesn't matter in terms of altering China's thinking or behavior. The other problem, is that India really can't offer much assistance in restraining China in the Asia Pacific region, which is where most of China's more serious ambitions are in the next few decades.
- riffraff 5y agoThe EU foreign policy needs unanimity, and some of the governments (mostly Hungary right now) will not allow it to take positions against abusive dictatorships. So it'll be many years before the EU becomes a foreign policy power.
- extraAccount 5y agoThe EU has a lot of domestic problems it is trying to address. It is in no position to try to deal with China.
- gogopuppygogo 5y agoBritain and the USA 🇺🇸 needed Russia to break the last axis power. This war will be economic but will be far more global than previous wars.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- foepys 5y agoChina is also Germany's second largest trading partner. France and Germany basically head the EU, so it's very unlikely that the EU will take a strong stance against China until this changes.
- dankboys 5y agoChina are probably judging the chances of a US response based on the response when Assad breached POTUS’ red line: nothing.
- ivalm 5y agoI hate Xi but what exactly do you want the US to do other than a strongly worded proclamation?
- mschuster91 5y agoInvest into manufacturing and infrastructure on US, European, African and Southern American soil. The leverage that China has is that way too many Western nations and companies have both their supply chain and the only market that is growing in China. By investing into a "Western New Belt Road" - not just in terms of infrastructure, but also in other measures like stabilization by drying out the market of drug cartels via legalization or military peacekeeping operations - the EU, India and US combined could turn the tide against China.
- fighterpilot 5y agoWhat are the reasons China has been so successful in taking up the role of the world's manufacturer and other developing countries haven't?
- mschuster91 5y agoA reckless disregard for any kind of protection - no matter if for workers or the environment -, generous government subsidies, and an abundance of young and healthy workers ready to be exploited. Network effects have done the rest, see e.g. https://hackaday.com/2016/02/07/bunnies-guide-to-shenzhen-electronics/ https://hackaday.com/2016/02/07/bunnies-guide-to-shenzhen-el...
- powerapple 5y agoWhat China did was to use market in exchange for access of technology. Many developing countries do not have such ambition, are happy to be in the same position forever.
- digianarchist 5y ago> GB already offers specific routes for HK residents to come over. Canada too.
- ajkdhcb2 5y agoAustralia has been doing raids like this for some time, they are even ahead of HK
- emmelaich 5y agoWhat raids are you referring to?
- nicwilson 5y agoThis one is very recent: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXtq4a8829g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXtq4a8829g
- brenainn 5y agohttps://law.uq.edu.au/files/60164/afp-raids.pdf https://law.uq.edu.au/files/60164/afp-raids.pdf
- ajkdhcb2 5y agoIn 2019 they raided the Australian national broadcaster's headquarters, and the home of a journalist, because of 'national security secrets' [1]. A couple of days ago, a 21 year old journalist and comedian was arrested by a counter-terrorism unit because he helped make youtube videos criticising a government official [2]. Nothing serious about national security is required anymore. The laws in Australia are terrifying; the government has extraordinary powers that can force you to build encryption backdoors and you're not allowed to tell anyone, not even your employer. So who knows what happens that the public never hears about. People were also arrested for making facebook posts just talking about covid protests. [1]: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-05/why-raids-on-australian-media-present-clear-threat-to-democracy/11183396 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-05/why-raids-on-australi... [2]: https://www.michaelwest.com.au/tamed-estate-arrest-of-friendlyjordies-producer-attests-to-dangerous-state-of-democracy/ https://www.michaelwest.com.au/tamed-estate-arrest-of-friend...
- jussij 5y agoThe raids are just the tip of the iceberg, as the Australia judicial system now shares characteristics of those found in secret states like Russia. Who would have thought in Australia someone could be prosecuted and jailed by a secret court. That is exactly what happened to Witness J: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/22/act-justice-minister-says-even-he-was-kept-in-dark-over-secret-prisoner https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/22/act-j...
- dragonsh 5y ago> the US, Japan, Canada, GB, AUS, the EU need to band together to counter China’s egregious rights abuses Countries living in glass houses cannot throw stones on others. Moreover each country has it's own flaws, so before asking others to correct each one of them needs to correct themselves (like those countries ruling establishment in China enjoy majority support and minority like in any system democratic or communist or authoritarian is suppressed or prosecuted). All these system needs to change in which minority are protected from tyranny of majority. > They could all offer residency programs for the bright students Agree with you they should also include every prosecuted community in the world in this program not just Hong Kong. Indeed program should be wide open to prosecuted minority from any country not just China. The bastion of democracy can demonstrate it in action not words, to really change the status quo. I don't hold my breathe for it, given most democracy also works on majoritarian politics it will be hard given national self-interests trumps humanity.
- esyir 5y agoWhile no country is perfect, some are far more egregious than others. China's abuses and lack of transparency far surpass any of the countries mentioned here. Trying to use an idiom to conceal whataboutism doesn't help.
- whydoibother 5y ago>While no country is perfect, some are far more egregious than others. America's is the worst. Perhaps China and the EU should band together to stop US hegemony and terrorism globally. Edit: Cool, so we can say that everyone should gang up on China for dubious reasons. But using that same logic for the US gets the post flagged. Can't help but laugh at the hypocrisy.
- dragonsh 5y ago> While no country is perfect, some are far more egregious than others Many countries will fit that bill ask yourself who destroyed people in Iraq, Afganistan and who supports Saudi Arabia for suppressing dissent with impunity, whats the status of minority and their rights in many of the countries mentioned above. Who helps prosecution of Palestinians. China has its own flaws like any other country. They are the target right now because of their relative economic success and ruling establishment enjoying majority support from its own population, which threatens some specific countries.
- piokoch 5y agoMaybe 10-15 years ago it would be possible, right now all the countries you've listed are strongly depended on Chinese manufacturing. Average person in any of those countries will easily swallow restricting freedom in HK, Urguys or Christians persecution, but will be mad without next generation gadgets that are all produced in China. It would require a really big effort to drop dependency on China, I don't think politicians and societies are ready for this. One more thing: when it comes to relations with China there is no such a thing like EU. Every country has its own agenda and interests, every country wants to win as much as possible for themselves, right now Germany is cutting a trade deal with China and there is no less important subject for them than some HK rights. And you are right, Taiwan is next on the list. I've read some analysis that in 6 years China will develop its army to that extent, that US will not be able to defend Taiwan. Taiwan is buying from the US expensive planes, tanks, which would not matter that much in the future war, where a relatively cheap loitering munition or a drone can destroy very expensive tank or plane. This was good for US military industry, but from the Taiwan defense perspective that's not a smart move.
- toomanybeersies 5y agoThat's exactly what the UK has done [1], and to a lesser extent, Australia as well [2] However, I don't think trying to grab all and all Hong Kong residents who are privileged enough to emigrate is necessarily the solution to the problem. Hong Kong will still fall to totalitarianism, even more so without the intelligentsia. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-security-britain-passports-idUSKBN2AI0YV https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-security-britain... [2] https://www.sbs.com.au/news/hong-kong-citizens-in-australia-will-be-allowed-to-stay-another-five-years-amid-china-crackdown https://www.sbs.com.au/news/hong-kong-citizens-in-australia-...
- kpierce 5y agoTaiwan importance is its geography. If China is able to control Taiwan it would not have any restriction for its shipping lanes and military. Its a much more important asset in the long run compared to HK.