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I'm not sure I believe the conclusion based on the survey. Resigning and "thinking about quitting [your] job" are very different things. I've spent my whole wor

I'm not sure I believe the conclusion based on the survey. Resigning and "thinking about quitting [your] job" are very different things. I've spent my whole working life thinking about quitting but I've rarely actually quit, the pandemic hasn't changed that.

TX0098812 5y ago
Meanwhile I've thought about quitting and then also quit a whole bunch of times. Business as usual over here. (Turns out the grass is pretty much the same in most places.)
nvr219 5y ago
Yeah I think 100% of workers think about quitting their job.
koheripbal 5y ago
Unless rent and mortgage payments somehow evaporate, there won't be some massive wave of resignations.
- markh 5y ago
  And health insurance.
  - ChrisRR 5y ago
    Damn, America really needs to get their act together. Being from England, I hadn't even considered that healthcare is something that has to be factored into whether someone could take time off
    - jitl 5y ago
      After I left Airbnb, I paid $680 a month to keep my previously employer-paid health insurance. Very cool, loved to have the “freedom of choice” to “participate in the market”. Insurance feels like another little way businesses seek to own people in the US. Want to own yourself? Gotta pay the lease… on your own body.
      - ChrisRR 5y ago
        I'm not clued up on US healthcare, but is $680 a lot, average, low? Does it cover all procedures? Is there an excess? Value of coverage?
        bsenftner 5y ago
        It covers the basics, and very little beyond that.
        lotsofpulp 5y ago
        Here is a good pdf where you can calculate it for your age: https://www.state.nj.us/dobi/division_insurance/ihcseh/ihcrates2021.pdf https://www.state.nj.us/dobi/division_insurance/ihcseh/ihcra... Basically, the metal levels are as follows: bronze, silver, gold, platinum are priced so that you the insurance company pays 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% of the healthcare costs. Of course, this is an actuarial calculation, so it’s only true over a large population over a long timeline. But healthcare is a pretty certain need for everyone, so the cost for healthcare for everyone from age 0 to 65 (when government starts offering it called Medicare) is amortized into health insurance premiums for all of the 0 to 65 years. The ACA law of 2010 requires a few things which cause the premiums to be adjusted such that younger people subsidize older people. The age rating factor table at the bottom of the linked pdf shows that the riskiest person (64 year old) must cost at most 3x what a 21 to 24 year old costs. Also, healthy people subsidize unhealthy people because your health condition cannot be taken into account when determining premiums, and men subsidize women since gender cannot be taken into account (due to birthing). As far as I know, smoking is the only activity that causes one’s premium to be higher. Let’s take a silver HSA plan for example: https://www.horizonblue.com/qhp/files/2021/2021_IHC_OMNIA_HSA_SILVER_OFF_EXCHANGE_G3720_RX_P2307_NOD.pdf https://www.horizonblue.com/qhp/files/2021/2021_IHC_OMNIA_HS... The out of pocket maximum for in network providers is $6,550. The premium is $350 per month. So $4,200 premium plus $6,550 out of pocket means a 21 to 24 year old pays at most $11k per year for healthcare if they get into trouble (most will only pay the $4.2k premiums since they are 21 to 24 and probably will not need healthcare). A complication to these calculations is when employees pay, they can pay with pretax money, and HSA plans allow you to invest your HSA contributions tax free (max of a few thousand dollars per person per year).
    - bsenftner 5y ago
      The US's healthcare system is a crime against humanity. A nation's population is it's greatest asset, and to manage healthcare as it is handled in the 'States is a recipe for 360 degree stagnation, cronyism, and the destruction any reason for the non-wealthy to live there at all, unless trapped.
    - tfehring 5y ago
      It’s much less of an issue than it was a decade+ ago. Unemployed people in the US get free health coverage through Medicaid pretty much everywhere but the Deep South, albeit with a limited selection of doctors.
      - ChrisRR 5y ago
        What does free health coverage entail? If there's free coverage, why doesn't everyone have it?
        tfehring 5y ago
        You get an insurance card that you can take to any doctor that accepts Medicaid, they'll treat you for free or for a nominal (say, $5) copay and bill the state. Mental health treatment is covered, prescription drugs are covered, the only major thing it's missing, as far as I know, is dental. But the main catch is that many doctors don't accept it, since Medicare generally reimburses at a lower rate than private insurance. Anecdotally, I was on Medicare in the rural Midwest several years ago and I think I had two choices of GP within a 25 mile radius. Everyone doesn't have it because it's means-tested - if you make more than very roughly $1,200 a month you don't qualify. You still qualify for income-based subsidies at that point (under a totally different government program), but at higher income levels the expectation is that either you pay for your own health insurance premiums out of pocket, or your employer pays them for you. It's all very complicated, but that complexity is the price we pay so that we higher-income Americans can say that our employer is paying a "premium" and not a "tax." Evidently some of us care an awful lot about that sort of thing.
    - wreath 5y ago
      But thats the same as Germany, no? You still have to pay for health insurance when you quit your job, so thats something to take into consideration before you resign, not only in USA.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > Unless rent and mortgage payments somehow evaporate, there won't be some massive wave of resignations The prediction isn’t a massive wave of unemployment. It’s people switching jobs. They will still be earning money, just perhaps elsewhere.
  - koheripbal 5y ago
    There might be a bump as a few employers try to capitalize on the work-from-home to get good talent. ...but in the long term, employee performance will be better in the office, and so most employees will end up back at work. The thing the that the article misses is that the vast majority of CEOs want all employees back in the office.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - iancmceachern 5y ago
      I think that's the whole point. It doesn't really matter what the CEO'S want. It's about what the employees want.
  - dangerbird2 5y ago
    This is why "quit rate" is a sign of economic strength. If workers are confident enough that resigning will result in both speedy re-employment and a better job than before, there is probably good overall confidence in the markets.
  - C19is20 5y ago
    Circle jerk, anyone?
celticninja 5y ago
I know a lot of people who are looking for alternative jobs because their companies expect a full return to the office. They are all looking for more flexible, or remote-first, employers.
arbol 5y ago
I've spent a lot of time thinking about quitting and have had 6 jobs in 14 years. The first 1-2 years of employment is usually fairly interesting and then you hit a rut in which you're no longer learning, IMO.
MattGaiser 5y ago
I am curious to know if it still has an impact. An employee who no longer plans to stick around has substantially different motivations.
mabbo 5y ago
I suspect what the authors are presuming is a relationship between the variable "proportion of workers thinking about quitting" and the variable "near future quitting rate". Imagine if I told you that the number of people "thinking of buying a Tesla" had gone up dramatically. Now, most people can't afford a Tesla, so no, not everyone is going to buy a Tesla. But if overall the proportion of people thinking about it went up, you wouldn't be surprised if the number of Tesla sales went up soon, and would probably be surprised if it fell. What I'm saying here is that it would be weird if those two variables are completely independent.
- PeterisP 5y ago
  But that's kind of the point - the article is not saying that the proportion of workers thinking about quitting has gone up dramatically. They're saying that "25% to upwards of 40%" are thinking about this, but it seems a completely reasonable rate even in normal conditions, for all we know it may not be an increase at all.
  - mabbo 5y ago
    Then I think you make a very good point.
dcolkitt 5y ago
The difference is that there’s not normally a mass catalyst like the end of WFH. Many people think of quitting their job, few actually do. That’s largely because of status quo bias. People don’t like to make any major changes to their life situation unless prompted. But if a company exists on ending the WFH arrangements that people have become accustomed to over the past year, all bets are out the window.

TX0098812 5y ago

Meanwhile I've thought about quitting and then also quit a whole bunch of times. Business as usual over here. (Turns out the grass is pretty much the same in most places.)

nvr219 5y ago

Yeah I think 100% of workers think about quitting their job.

koheripbal 5y ago

Unless rent and mortgage payments somehow evaporate, there won't be some massive wave of resignations.

markh 5y ago
And health insurance.
- ChrisRR 5y ago
  Damn, America really needs to get their act together. Being from England, I hadn't even considered that healthcare is something that has to be factored into whether someone could take time off
  - jitl 5y ago
    After I left Airbnb, I paid $680 a month to keep my previously employer-paid health insurance. Very cool, loved to have the “freedom of choice” to “participate in the market”. Insurance feels like another little way businesses seek to own people in the US. Want to own yourself? Gotta pay the lease… on your own body.
    - ChrisRR 5y ago
      I'm not clued up on US healthcare, but is $680 a lot, average, low? Does it cover all procedures? Is there an excess? Value of coverage?
      - bsenftner 5y ago
        It covers the basics, and very little beyond that.
      - lotsofpulp 5y ago
        Here is a good pdf where you can calculate it for your age: https://www.state.nj.us/dobi/division_insurance/ihcseh/ihcrates2021.pdf https://www.state.nj.us/dobi/division_insurance/ihcseh/ihcra... Basically, the metal levels are as follows: bronze, silver, gold, platinum are priced so that you the insurance company pays 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% of the healthcare costs. Of course, this is an actuarial calculation, so it’s only true over a large population over a long timeline. But healthcare is a pretty certain need for everyone, so the cost for healthcare for everyone from age 0 to 65 (when government starts offering it called Medicare) is amortized into health insurance premiums for all of the 0 to 65 years. The ACA law of 2010 requires a few things which cause the premiums to be adjusted such that younger people subsidize older people. The age rating factor table at the bottom of the linked pdf shows that the riskiest person (64 year old) must cost at most 3x what a 21 to 24 year old costs. Also, healthy people subsidize unhealthy people because your health condition cannot be taken into account when determining premiums, and men subsidize women since gender cannot be taken into account (due to birthing). As far as I know, smoking is the only activity that causes one’s premium to be higher. Let’s take a silver HSA plan for example: https://www.horizonblue.com/qhp/files/2021/2021_IHC_OMNIA_HSA_SILVER_OFF_EXCHANGE_G3720_RX_P2307_NOD.pdf https://www.horizonblue.com/qhp/files/2021/2021_IHC_OMNIA_HS... The out of pocket maximum for in network providers is $6,550. The premium is $350 per month. So $4,200 premium plus $6,550 out of pocket means a 21 to 24 year old pays at most $11k per year for healthcare if they get into trouble (most will only pay the $4.2k premiums since they are 21 to 24 and probably will not need healthcare). A complication to these calculations is when employees pay, they can pay with pretax money, and HSA plans allow you to invest your HSA contributions tax free (max of a few thousand dollars per person per year).
  - bsenftner 5y ago
    The US's healthcare system is a crime against humanity. A nation's population is it's greatest asset, and to manage healthcare as it is handled in the 'States is a recipe for 360 degree stagnation, cronyism, and the destruction any reason for the non-wealthy to live there at all, unless trapped.
  - tfehring 5y ago
    It’s much less of an issue than it was a decade+ ago. Unemployed people in the US get free health coverage through Medicaid pretty much everywhere but the Deep South, albeit with a limited selection of doctors.
    - ChrisRR 5y ago
      What does free health coverage entail? If there's free coverage, why doesn't everyone have it?
      - tfehring 5y ago
        You get an insurance card that you can take to any doctor that accepts Medicaid, they'll treat you for free or for a nominal (say, $5) copay and bill the state. Mental health treatment is covered, prescription drugs are covered, the only major thing it's missing, as far as I know, is dental. But the main catch is that many doctors don't accept it, since Medicare generally reimburses at a lower rate than private insurance. Anecdotally, I was on Medicare in the rural Midwest several years ago and I think I had two choices of GP within a 25 mile radius. Everyone doesn't have it because it's means-tested - if you make more than very roughly $1,200 a month you don't qualify. You still qualify for income-based subsidies at that point (under a totally different government program), but at higher income levels the expectation is that either you pay for your own health insurance premiums out of pocket, or your employer pays them for you. It's all very complicated, but that complexity is the price we pay so that we higher-income Americans can say that our employer is paying a "premium" and not a "tax." Evidently some of us care an awful lot about that sort of thing.
  - wreath 5y ago
    But thats the same as Germany, no? You still have to pay for health insurance when you quit your job, so thats something to take into consideration before you resign, not only in USA.
JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> Unless rent and mortgage payments somehow evaporate, there won't be some massive wave of resignations The prediction isn’t a massive wave of unemployment. It’s people switching jobs. They will still be earning money, just perhaps elsewhere.
- koheripbal 5y ago
  There might be a bump as a few employers try to capitalize on the work-from-home to get good talent. ...but in the long term, employee performance will be better in the office, and so most employees will end up back at work. The thing the that the article misses is that the vast majority of CEOs want all employees back in the office.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - iancmceachern 5y ago
    I think that's the whole point. It doesn't really matter what the CEO'S want. It's about what the employees want.
- dangerbird2 5y ago
  This is why "quit rate" is a sign of economic strength. If workers are confident enough that resigning will result in both speedy re-employment and a better job than before, there is probably good overall confidence in the markets.
- C19is20 5y ago
  Circle jerk, anyone?

celticninja 5y ago

I know a lot of people who are looking for alternative jobs because their companies expect a full return to the office. They are all looking for more flexible, or remote-first, employers.

arbol 5y ago

I've spent a lot of time thinking about quitting and have had 6 jobs in 14 years. The first 1-2 years of employment is usually fairly interesting and then you hit a rut in which you're no longer learning, IMO.

MattGaiser 5y ago

I am curious to know if it still has an impact. An employee who no longer plans to stick around has substantially different motivations.

mabbo 5y ago

I suspect what the authors are presuming is a relationship between the variable "proportion of workers thinking about quitting" and the variable "near future quitting rate". Imagine if I told you that the number of people "thinking of buying a Tesla" had gone up dramatically. Now, most people can't afford a Tesla, so no, not everyone is going to buy a Tesla. But if overall the proportion of people thinking about it went up, you wouldn't be surprised if the number of Tesla sales went up soon, and would probably be surprised if it fell. What I'm saying here is that it would be weird if those two variables are completely independent.

PeterisP 5y ago
But that's kind of the point - the article is not saying that the proportion of workers thinking about quitting has gone up dramatically. They're saying that "25% to upwards of 40%" are thinking about this, but it seems a completely reasonable rate even in normal conditions, for all we know it may not be an increase at all.
- mabbo 5y ago
  Then I think you make a very good point.

dcolkitt 5y ago

The difference is that there’s not normally a mass catalyst like the end of WFH. Many people think of quitting their job, few actually do. That’s largely because of status quo bias. People don’t like to make any major changes to their life situation unless prompted. But if a company exists on ending the WFH arrangements that people have become accustomed to over the past year, all bets are out the window.