5 ms·

It probably didn’t hurt that Japan has a declining population, so supply > demand

by spunker540 5y ago

Drunk_Engineer 5y ago
California and NYC have a declining population.
- pixl97 5y ago
  Along with huge portions of the rural midwest. It all has to do with meeting the demand where the demand exists.
- yawaworht1978 5y ago
  Just distorted number because of increases homelessness. Sarcasm , however, there is a bit truth to that.
- viscanti 5y ago
  If you cherry pick data during COVID that's true. But it was the first year since 1900 with any decline and state forecasters say it's more to do with over 50,000 COVID related deaths and less migration from other countries (the largest source of population growth for CA for many years now) because other countries were locked down. As far as I know, no one expect that decline to be anything more than a very temporary thing.
  - adventured 5y ago
    California's population expansion clearly hit a wall back in 2017-2018, pre-pandemic. 2019 saw their population expansion de facto stop. The rate of growth has been dropping rapidly toward zero for much of the past decade, and they reached that line before the pandemic hit, it's not a new trend due to Covid. This decade it'll go negative. The exodus - a desperate flight from California's particularly horrible governments and epic mismanagement - will get worse yet, not better. Fewer people want to live in California and it's very obvious why. 2010 to 2020, California saw a 6% population expansion. The slowest decade of population growth in a century for the state. Year to year, it went from very slow growth at the beginning, to zero by the end. Next is a contraction. Texas by contrast saw 16% expansion in that time. It's booming and it's also very obvious why.
    - treeman79 5y ago
      Fled California a dozen years ago. I miss the weather, but otherwise glad to have left. Gang violence, over regulation, out of control prices, etc. Can’t imagine going back with all this nonsense around legalizing shop lifting, segregation coming back. Let the downvotes start
      - peter422 5y ago
        I’m sure the place you moved is perfect with no problems whatsoever. Just like California used to be back in the good old days before things changed.
        bsder 5y ago
        Yeah, I note that these kinds of spammy comments used to always mention Texas. Now I note they don't mention Texas quite so much, anymore.
      - pempem 5y ago
        It doesn't need to be downvoted. You identified yourself with your word choice. Separately I hate the over usage of the word "fled". No one was chasing anyone. In an age of basically yearly refugee crises in the world it's terrible to see its overuse.
        refurb 5y ago
        Fled means to “run away”. What does have to do with “chasing” and refugees?
    - majormajor 5y ago
      > This decade it'll go negative. The exodus - a desperate flight from California's particularly horrible governments and epic mismanagement - will get worse yet, not better. "You can tell that the government has failed and nobody wants to live their by the fact that it's too expensive" doesn't really add up to me... Texas cities have lots of empty surrounding land to sprawl into further, which massively helps with supply and prices. This is not some magic feat of government. They're less dense, not more dense.
masklinn 5y ago
> so supply > demand Nope. Japan has a declining population, but the population keeps urbanising. So while there's hefty supply (literally millions of unoccupied housing inventory) in places nobody wants to live in, there is not in places where people are moving to (large cities). There's very regularly news and posts about unoccupied houses ("akiya") being literally given away by government and local authorities because even at auction for pennies nobody wants to bid on rural properties. There was one going through here just last week. Some prefectures are nearing 20% vacancy rates, but they're places like… well basically all of Shikoku which is largely mountainous and rural, and has been bleeding population at a rate of 5%/decade since 2000.
- adventured 5y ago
  Yep. Japan's urban population is somewhere between stagnating and declining, not increasing. The contraction trend is even worse in most of their cities other than Tokyo. Simultaneously the percentage of the population that is urban, is very slowly increasing. Those are two very different things. Their cities are net contracting in population. They're now nationally losing people faster than they're urbanizing. They're currently losing around a quarter of a million people per year nationally. Their cities are not expanding faster than that drop. And given their already very high urbanization rate (and very slow rate of urbanization increase), it's unlikely anything will significantly change in that regard. This decade will see either a mostly flat population trend in Tokyo, or a modest contraction. What it won't show, is a meaningful expansion, as their national population contraction gets worse. The pandemic put enough pressure on Tokyo that it actually contracted for the first time in ~25 years. February 25, 2021 "Tokyo, Feb. 25 (Jiji Press)--Tokyo's estimated population fell by 662 from a year before to 13,952,915 as of Feb. 1, marking its first year-on-year decline in about 25 years, the metropolitan government said Thursday." https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2021022500969/ https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2021022500969/ However, if you go back further, you can see the trend was already toward decline. This is from 2019: June, 2019, The Guardian "Has Tokyo reached ‘peak city’?" "One could argue that the world’s biggest city has hit a sweet spot: a flatlining population, pervasive transit and little gentrification. But is ‘peak city’ even possible – and where does Tokyo go from here?" "Unlike many megacities, the world’s largest metropolitan area has largely stopped growing, either in land or population." https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/jun/14/has-tokyo-reached-peak-city https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/jun/14/has-tokyo-rea...

It probably didn’t hurt that Japan has a declining population, so supply > demand

Drunk_Engineer 5y ago

California and NYC have a declining population.

pixl97 5y ago
Along with huge portions of the rural midwest. It all has to do with meeting the demand where the demand exists.
yawaworht1978 5y ago
Just distorted number because of increases homelessness. Sarcasm , however, there is a bit truth to that.
viscanti 5y ago
If you cherry pick data during COVID that's true. But it was the first year since 1900 with any decline and state forecasters say it's more to do with over 50,000 COVID related deaths and less migration from other countries (the largest source of population growth for CA for many years now) because other countries were locked down. As far as I know, no one expect that decline to be anything more than a very temporary thing.
- adventured 5y ago
  California's population expansion clearly hit a wall back in 2017-2018, pre-pandemic. 2019 saw their population expansion de facto stop. The rate of growth has been dropping rapidly toward zero for much of the past decade, and they reached that line before the pandemic hit, it's not a new trend due to Covid. This decade it'll go negative. The exodus - a desperate flight from California's particularly horrible governments and epic mismanagement - will get worse yet, not better. Fewer people want to live in California and it's very obvious why. 2010 to 2020, California saw a 6% population expansion. The slowest decade of population growth in a century for the state. Year to year, it went from very slow growth at the beginning, to zero by the end. Next is a contraction. Texas by contrast saw 16% expansion in that time. It's booming and it's also very obvious why.
  - treeman79 5y ago
    Fled California a dozen years ago. I miss the weather, but otherwise glad to have left. Gang violence, over regulation, out of control prices, etc. Can’t imagine going back with all this nonsense around legalizing shop lifting, segregation coming back. Let the downvotes start
    - peter422 5y ago
      I’m sure the place you moved is perfect with no problems whatsoever. Just like California used to be back in the good old days before things changed.
      - bsder 5y ago
        Yeah, I note that these kinds of spammy comments used to always mention Texas. Now I note they don't mention Texas quite so much, anymore.
    - pempem 5y ago
      It doesn't need to be downvoted. You identified yourself with your word choice. Separately I hate the over usage of the word "fled". No one was chasing anyone. In an age of basically yearly refugee crises in the world it's terrible to see its overuse.
      - refurb 5y ago
        Fled means to “run away”. What does have to do with “chasing” and refugees?
  - majormajor 5y ago
    > This decade it'll go negative. The exodus - a desperate flight from California's particularly horrible governments and epic mismanagement - will get worse yet, not better. "You can tell that the government has failed and nobody wants to live their by the fact that it's too expensive" doesn't really add up to me... Texas cities have lots of empty surrounding land to sprawl into further, which massively helps with supply and prices. This is not some magic feat of government. They're less dense, not more dense.

masklinn 5y ago

> so supply > demand Nope. Japan has a declining population, but the population keeps urbanising. So while there's hefty supply (literally millions of unoccupied housing inventory) in places nobody wants to live in, there is not in places where people are moving to (large cities). There's very regularly news and posts about unoccupied houses ("akiya") being literally given away by government and local authorities because even at auction for pennies nobody wants to bid on rural properties. There was one going through here just last week. Some prefectures are nearing 20% vacancy rates, but they're places like… well basically all of Shikoku which is largely mountainous and rural, and has been bleeding population at a rate of 5%/decade since 2000.

adventured 5y ago
Yep. Japan's urban population is somewhere between stagnating and declining, not increasing. The contraction trend is even worse in most of their cities other than Tokyo. Simultaneously the percentage of the population that is urban, is very slowly increasing. Those are two very different things. Their cities are net contracting in population. They're now nationally losing people faster than they're urbanizing. They're currently losing around a quarter of a million people per year nationally. Their cities are not expanding faster than that drop. And given their already very high urbanization rate (and very slow rate of urbanization increase), it's unlikely anything will significantly change in that regard. This decade will see either a mostly flat population trend in Tokyo, or a modest contraction. What it won't show, is a meaningful expansion, as their national population contraction gets worse. The pandemic put enough pressure on Tokyo that it actually contracted for the first time in ~25 years. February 25, 2021 "Tokyo, Feb. 25 (Jiji Press)--Tokyo's estimated population fell by 662 from a year before to 13,952,915 as of Feb. 1, marking its first year-on-year decline in about 25 years, the metropolitan government said Thursday." https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2021022500969/ https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2021022500969/ However, if you go back further, you can see the trend was already toward decline. This is from 2019: June, 2019, The Guardian "Has Tokyo reached ‘peak city’?" "One could argue that the world’s biggest city has hit a sweet spot: a flatlining population, pervasive transit and little gentrification. But is ‘peak city’ even possible – and where does Tokyo go from here?" "Unlike many megacities, the world’s largest metropolitan area has largely stopped growing, either in land or population." https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/jun/14/has-tokyo-reached-peak-city https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/jun/14/has-tokyo-rea...