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I'm disappointed that this is only about expanding factory output, not some technology that would "supercharge" the actual battery output. Will there be enough

I'm disappointed that this is only about expanding factory output, not some technology that would "supercharge" the actual battery output. Will there be enough lithium in the world to meet demand without some major advancements in the battery technology, I wonder?

toomuchtodo 5y ago
Lithium is one of the most abundant materials in the Earth’s crust.
- ajross 5y ago
  To be fair: it also concentrates poorly (there are no "lithium veins"), making extraction comparatively expensive in relation to common metals. So there's a real problem to be solved here. But it's not a "shortage" and we won't "run out". The other components of Lithium battery chemistries, however, tend to be much rarer. Most (by kWh capacity) manufactured battery chemistries today are dependent on cobalt, which is a rare earth with some finite quantity of reserves that absolutely can "run out". Some manufacturers (Tesla in particular) seem to be having some success moving off that and onto nickel chemistries. We'll see.
  - nickik 5y ago
    Cobalt is not a rare earth. And cobalt is also not particularly rare either. For a long time there was just not much need for cobalt and the mines in Congo were cheap, but nobody bother to develop other mines. However there are at least 4 huge nickel/cobalt mines being developed in Canada. More then that in Australia. And more other places too. Moving of cobalt to more nickel, iron or manganese is clearly the path forward however. Lithium is the trickiest part to scale since is practically acts more like a complex chemical then a commodity metal. Each 'mine' is highly costume in the form it lithium arrives at and the process needed. And the resulting chemicals are not commodities but rather have to be qualified with each manufactures. I would say lithium of the quality needed is the closest to a real supply issue. Gravity is after that even if its something people don't think about much. Nickel is not exactly rare but the problem is that the current nickel production growth is very dirty.
    - shiftpgdn 5y ago
      There is an exceptionally large cobalt mine in Missouri that should have more output than the African mines within the next year or two if geologists are to be believed.
  - jillesvangurp 5y ago
    Cobalt is also used in the oil industry as a catalyst to remove sulfur from fuel. This happens in rather large quantities and the cobalt tends to have rather dubious origins as well. At least with batteries we get to recycle the cobalt, lithium and other materials, eventually. They are not permanently lost. Even our waste deposits actually contain rather large amounts of rare earths. Once they get rare enough, we'll be mining our own waste. Economics basically push us in the right direction. Hard to source metals drive up the price and give a cost advantage to batteries that don't require them. That's already happening with Tesla. The same dynamic is pushing people away from oil before we've run out of it because it is getting more expensive over time.
amelius 5y ago
And they don't even have access to Tesla's "tabless" battery patent. https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/news/just-how-much-breakthrough-teslas-tabless-battery-cell/ https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/news/just-how-much-breakthr...
brianwawok 5y ago
The is no shortage of Lithium, just need more mines to open up. The price rising will make more places profitable to mine Lithium.
ashtonkem 5y ago
Boring, incremental progress is how things get done. "only" expanding factory output is a pretty big part of how you make batteries cheaper and usable in more applications.
ajross 5y ago
We aren't going to see major advancements like that. Lithium cells are pretty mature technology at this point. What you're going to see is tweaked chemistries and designs (c.f. the Tesla 4680 cell everyone likes to talk about) that make batteries a little cheaper or a little lighter here and there, but with some tradeoffs. That said: Lithium cells are already good enough and cheap enough for ground transportation to be practical. And that is in some sense the "last frontier". Static applications are already as well served as they ever will be, and no, battery powered aviation just isn't going to be practical ever (carbon nerds need to look at synfuels there). We had the amazing revolution in battery technology already, basically. And it enabled your EV and your phone. We won the game about 15 years ago.
wolfram74 5y ago
If this[0] shakes out, lithium will not be the limiting component. If. https://www.mining.com/scientists-develop-cheap-and-easy-method-to-extract-lithium-from-seawater/ https://www.mining.com/scientists-develop-cheap-and-easy-met...
DanielHB 5y ago
A couple of months ago Northvolt acquired cuberg to acquire its high-density cell designs meant to be used in specialised applications like electric aircraft: https://cuberg.net/news/northvolt-acquires-cuberg https://cuberg.net/news/northvolt-acquires-cuberg

toomuchtodo 5y ago

Lithium is one of the most abundant materials in the Earth’s crust.

ajross 5y ago
To be fair: it also concentrates poorly (there are no "lithium veins"), making extraction comparatively expensive in relation to common metals. So there's a real problem to be solved here. But it's not a "shortage" and we won't "run out". The other components of Lithium battery chemistries, however, tend to be much rarer. Most (by kWh capacity) manufactured battery chemistries today are dependent on cobalt, which is a rare earth with some finite quantity of reserves that absolutely can "run out". Some manufacturers (Tesla in particular) seem to be having some success moving off that and onto nickel chemistries. We'll see.
- nickik 5y ago
  Cobalt is not a rare earth. And cobalt is also not particularly rare either. For a long time there was just not much need for cobalt and the mines in Congo were cheap, but nobody bother to develop other mines. However there are at least 4 huge nickel/cobalt mines being developed in Canada. More then that in Australia. And more other places too. Moving of cobalt to more nickel, iron or manganese is clearly the path forward however. Lithium is the trickiest part to scale since is practically acts more like a complex chemical then a commodity metal. Each 'mine' is highly costume in the form it lithium arrives at and the process needed. And the resulting chemicals are not commodities but rather have to be qualified with each manufactures. I would say lithium of the quality needed is the closest to a real supply issue. Gravity is after that even if its something people don't think about much. Nickel is not exactly rare but the problem is that the current nickel production growth is very dirty.
  - shiftpgdn 5y ago
    There is an exceptionally large cobalt mine in Missouri that should have more output than the African mines within the next year or two if geologists are to be believed.
- jillesvangurp 5y ago
  Cobalt is also used in the oil industry as a catalyst to remove sulfur from fuel. This happens in rather large quantities and the cobalt tends to have rather dubious origins as well. At least with batteries we get to recycle the cobalt, lithium and other materials, eventually. They are not permanently lost. Even our waste deposits actually contain rather large amounts of rare earths. Once they get rare enough, we'll be mining our own waste. Economics basically push us in the right direction. Hard to source metals drive up the price and give a cost advantage to batteries that don't require them. That's already happening with Tesla. The same dynamic is pushing people away from oil before we've run out of it because it is getting more expensive over time.

amelius 5y ago

And they don't even have access to Tesla's "tabless" battery patent. https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/news/just-how-much-breakthrough-teslas-tabless-battery-cell/ https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/news/just-how-much-breakthr...

brianwawok 5y ago

The is no shortage of Lithium, just need more mines to open up. The price rising will make more places profitable to mine Lithium.

ashtonkem 5y ago

Boring, incremental progress is how things get done. "only" expanding factory output is a pretty big part of how you make batteries cheaper and usable in more applications.

ajross 5y ago

We aren't going to see major advancements like that. Lithium cells are pretty mature technology at this point. What you're going to see is tweaked chemistries and designs (c.f. the Tesla 4680 cell everyone likes to talk about) that make batteries a little cheaper or a little lighter here and there, but with some tradeoffs. That said: Lithium cells are already good enough and cheap enough for ground transportation to be practical. And that is in some sense the "last frontier". Static applications are already as well served as they ever will be, and no, battery powered aviation just isn't going to be practical ever (carbon nerds need to look at synfuels there). We had the amazing revolution in battery technology already, basically. And it enabled your EV and your phone. We won the game about 15 years ago.

wolfram74 5y ago

If this[0] shakes out, lithium will not be the limiting component. If. https://www.mining.com/scientists-develop-cheap-and-easy-method-to-extract-lithium-from-seawater/ https://www.mining.com/scientists-develop-cheap-and-easy-met...

DanielHB 5y ago

A couple of months ago Northvolt acquired cuberg to acquire its high-density cell designs meant to be used in specialised applications like electric aircraft: https://cuberg.net/news/northvolt-acquires-cuberg https://cuberg.net/news/northvolt-acquires-cuberg