3 ms·

How much of the declining birth rate is due to lack of security? As an urbanite with their first kid I can say we only plan to have one. Even with 2 tech jobs

by lumost 5y ago

How much of the declining birth rate is due to lack of security? As an urbanite with their first kid I can say we only plan to have one. Even with 2 tech jobs childcare, housing, college and other expenses mean that having 2 kids would make us fret over bills and start to ignore retirement. All of these expenses share the same trait that they are influenced by interest rates and nominal prices.

inglor_cz 5y ago
Frankly, I do not know. Everyone has their favorite explanation. This bunch of effects is really hard to disentangle exactly. But having kids is very expensive in urban areas, not just in Europe, but in places like Tehran or Singapore. To some degree, the fertility problem is a problem of runaway urbanization. We might be witnessing the moment when urbanization hits its limits. Another interesting complication is natural fertility vs. length of education. Women get less fertile after 30 and much less fertile after 35. Long education pushes the age of first birth upwards, where it starts to hit against the biological limits. IVF is a huge business in Europe. (Undergoing IVF right now - yes, we were fools for waiting that long.)
swagasaurus-rex 5y ago
Land is one thing everybody competes with eachother for, either through rent prices or through housing prices. Everybody, not just the rich have been using land as an investment for decades. Many cities are priced out. This land burden becomes a weight on businesses and people. Businesses that need to be located in a central area must pay high rents and high wages. Declining birthrates absolutely make sense. We just don't have enough room for all of us, and it's clear in the prices.
jxidjhdhdhdhfhf 5y ago
Education of women is known to be a cause of decline in birthrates. Likely very little of it has to do with lack of security or economic reasons. In fact it's quite the opposite, the poor on average have more children than the rich.
- mtnGoat 5y ago
  can you cite this claim? i would be interested to learn more about the relation between the education of woman and lowering birth rates.
  - inglor_cz 5y ago
    Not the user you are reacting to, but the correlation of education with total fertility seems to be pretty strong across the world. https://wol.iza.org/uploads/articles/228/pdfs/female-education-and-its-impact-on-fertility.pdf https://wol.iza.org/uploads/articles/228/pdfs/female-educati... It seems that the gap in fertility between the "no education" and "8 years of basic education" cohorts is extra pronounced.
    - mtnGoat 5y ago
      perfect, thank you.
  - watwut 5y ago
    Basically, women who are educated and have enough power to plan the amount of kids have less of them. Women who dont get to make those decisions have more of them.

by lumost 5y ago

inglor_cz 5y ago

Frankly, I do not know. Everyone has their favorite explanation. This bunch of effects is really hard to disentangle exactly. But having kids is very expensive in urban areas, not just in Europe, but in places like Tehran or Singapore. To some degree, the fertility problem is a problem of runaway urbanization. We might be witnessing the moment when urbanization hits its limits. Another interesting complication is natural fertility vs. length of education. Women get less fertile after 30 and much less fertile after 35. Long education pushes the age of first birth upwards, where it starts to hit against the biological limits. IVF is a huge business in Europe. (Undergoing IVF right now - yes, we were fools for waiting that long.)

swagasaurus-rex 5y ago

Land is one thing everybody competes with eachother for, either through rent prices or through housing prices. Everybody, not just the rich have been using land as an investment for decades. Many cities are priced out. This land burden becomes a weight on businesses and people. Businesses that need to be located in a central area must pay high rents and high wages. Declining birthrates absolutely make sense. We just don't have enough room for all of us, and it's clear in the prices.

jxidjhdhdhdhfhf 5y ago

Education of women is known to be a cause of decline in birthrates. Likely very little of it has to do with lack of security or economic reasons. In fact it's quite the opposite, the poor on average have more children than the rich.

mtnGoat 5y ago
can you cite this claim? i would be interested to learn more about the relation between the education of woman and lowering birth rates.
- inglor_cz 5y ago
  Not the user you are reacting to, but the correlation of education with total fertility seems to be pretty strong across the world. https://wol.iza.org/uploads/articles/228/pdfs/female-education-and-its-impact-on-fertility.pdf https://wol.iza.org/uploads/articles/228/pdfs/female-educati... It seems that the gap in fertility between the "no education" and "8 years of basic education" cohorts is extra pronounced.
  - mtnGoat 5y ago
    perfect, thank you.
- watwut 5y ago
  Basically, women who are educated and have enough power to plan the amount of kids have less of them. Women who dont get to make those decisions have more of them.