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What a Wuhan lab leak would mean
- vallas 5y agowestern governments went blablabla
- pgrote 5y ago>possibly that the entire Communist apparatus of control might crumble amid intense public anger. I am ignorant of Chinese attitudes toward their government, but why would this be one of the effects? China officially had few cases and deaths from covid-19. They were heavy handedly effective at stopping it from gaining traction. Why would a lie about the origin cause Chinese citizens to rise up?
- gremlinsinc 5y agoMost chinese citizens would never even have access to the truth about said lie, many more are not educated enough to reason about it, therefore it's a moot point. It'll never happen. China isn't going to have a civil war except in maybe Hong Kong but they'll lose.
- 99_00 5y agoWhat does a wuhan pandemic caused by wet-markets mean? Apparently it means wet markets across China reopen after a brief shutdown with out a word from global media and political leaders.
- benjohnson 5y agoNothing. Because we Americans funded the lab. So the combined propaganda power of both the CCP and the USA will make this a non-issue. Everybody is also going to think I'm nuts - but we should be very very thankful that the first airplane tranported pandemic was so mild. It's prepared us for something that could be vastly worse.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- 99_00 5y ago"funded the lab" This can mean anything from fully funding it to giving it some small amount of money and having no real control or transparency, or even funding people from the lab to do research in America. Can you provide a source?
- m4burns 5y agoFor example, this 2019 NIH grant awarded to Ecohealth Alliance Inc.: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9819304 https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9819304 This is part of a series of ongoing projects that have received NIH funding over the last 7 years. Ecohealth, in turn, funds WIV: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02473-4 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02473-4
- benjohnson 5y agohttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/search/research-news/9563/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/search/research-news/9563/ Frankly, it was probably good research. If it did escape, it's not a particular China problem - viruses have escaped labs over and over all over the world. I know of one lab here in the US that has a onsite fourteen day quarantine every time you leave the work area - you can imagine that it's not a popular place to work.
- tzs 5y agoThere are some other reasons several major countries might not want to press the issue. It would be an interesting international law mess. Some thorny issues: 1. If it was due to Chinese negligence, how would damages be calculated? In many (most?) national law systems the party harmed by negligence has some duty to mitigate the harm. For instance if you are out watering your garden with a garden hose, and you see an ember from my BBQ land on your garden shed and start a fire which you could trivially put out with your hose, but you just stand there and watch the fire spread and burn the shed to the ground, I'm probably not going to be liable for buying you a new shed. My liability will probably be limited to the small amount of damage from the first few seconds of the fire. Is there any similar concept in international law? If so, I expect that a lot of countries would want to avoid trying to answer the question of how much of their deaths and economic loses were due to China's negligence and how much were due to their own poor handling of the pandemic. 2. If it was an accidental lab release but not due to negligence, are there damages? In many national legal systems there is the concept of an "Act of God" or similar. As an example suppose one of the 30 m (100 ft) tall trees in my neighbor's yard about 18 m (60 ft) from my house were to fall over in a windstorm and smash my house. If the tree was unhealthy or its root system shallow or weak, the neighbor would probably be negligent for not having the tree safely removed, and so my neighbor would owe me a new house. If the tree was a healthy tree well rooted then we'd be looking at an "Act of God", and my neighbor is off the hook. Is there anything similar in international law?
- daenz 5y ago>Bear in mind researchers in Wuhan were combining snippets from strains of bat coronaviruses to increase virulence, injecting viruses into “humanised” mice, testing how diseases can jump the species barrier and creating chimeric diseases using cloning techniques that show no sign of human manipulation. Can someone explain to me in layperson's terms what the purpose of this is, and why the risk of a global pandemic with millions of deaths is outweighed by its value?
- primis 5y agoResearch labs attempt artifical evolution of viruses and bacteria under extremely controlled situations in order to attempt to find cures preemptively. They also identify symptoms and severity before natural evolution has a chance outside the lab to create these novel pandemics itself.
- bayesian_horse 5y agoThe other point is that such research usually targets non-human species. Say, they try to adapt a bat-virus to a ferret. The idea that such a virus is transmissible to Humans, escapes and causes a pandemic is something of a miracle in itself. If it actually happened that way, which I don't believe right now.
- Amezarak 5y agoResearchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were engaged in gain-of-function and serial passage research, but it is also a matter of public record that they were targeting human hosts in collaboration with others, as well. > Early in 2016, Baric and Shi again collaborated. Shi sent Baric a fresh bat virus spike protein, and Baric inserted it into the backbone of a human SARS virus and then used that infectious clone to attack human airway cells. “The virus readily and efficiently replicated in cultured human airway tissues, suggesting an ability to potentially jump directly to humans,” reported the UNC’s website. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-escape-theory.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-esca... As for why people engage in research that has such enormous downside risks - well, they want grant money and to keep getting paid. I'm sure they think - 'it's ok, I'm careful', just like anyone else engaging in such behavior, even though there's a long history of lab leaks leading to serious problems.
- Supermancho 5y agoI expect, nothing. reads article Yup, nothing. > The result would be uncomfortable not just for the Chinese Communist Party Outside of the ethnic cleansing that's already going on? Pfft. > It would shake science to its foundations for carrying out risky research despite clear warnings of the dangers, and then collaborating in an epic whitewash. The grand statement in the face of history rings hollow. > it would challenge a media that meekly accepted the establishment view The "media" is as corrupt as the politicians (since access is traded as part of information dealing), but you still have some marginal sources that never give up on various theories. Unsurprising that what's considered crackpot and credible shifts under our feet. Facts are hard to come by, when they are withheld.
- toss1 5y agoYup. Beyond that, even. While it might cause some trivial reputational discomfort for the CCP who is already engaged in ethnic cleansing, but they'd also realize (if they haven't already) that they have a direct path to winning a bio-war without even losing credibility, because their authoritarian control gives them a huge advantage. They showed that they can implement a hard lock-down to reduce R0 to <1, whilst the western democracies tie themselves up in knots over masks, lockdowns, and 'muh freedums'. A new version that had R0 of maybe 4 (vs 2.7 for SARS-COV-2) and mortality in the 15% range (vs 2-6%), introduced into animal populations... One can hope that they aren't that unethical, but the fate of many tens of millions under the rule of that party says otherwise...
- primis 5y agoThis article attempts and fails to keep a neutral point of view on this theory. Instead, it heavily implies that a wuhan lab leak is the most likely source, citing Occam's razor as a rationale. Just because we haven't identified with certainty the cross animal with bats doesn't mean the most likely explanation is a massive Chinese coverup.
- tremon 5y agoWhat's this supposed "neutrality" that you're seeking? I didn't get from the article what you're reading into it. To me, the central point of the article is this paragraph: > These events highlight three significant scientific issues exposed by the pandemic that need tackling regardless of the origins: a dismal WHO leadership and structure not up to the task of protecting public safety; the collusion of a scientific establishment that sought to shut down debate rather than follow evidence; and the shredding of the reputations of some key journals that failed to promote free debate based on facts. Isn't your comment here exactly doing what the article is lamenting, shutting down debate based on your interpretation of the text?
- runawaybottle 5y agoIf only America could just fly in a few Navy seals like we did to grab Binladen and just grab everything in that lab (and apologize later). I mean, China knows we won’t go to war with them, and we know they won’t go to war with us. So let’s just do it.
- thorw3747 5y agoIt is even worse. SARS-CoV-2 virus has not yet been found in wild animals. That indicates it has no natural origin. And there are interviews with scientists and job ads, that points to gain of function research. But that will be "conspiracy theory" for another year, before mainstream catches up...
- bayesian_horse 5y agoThere is not one "lab leak theory", there are quite a few distinct possibilities. The problem is that the nutcases ran with the one that said China was working on weaponizing this exact virus and then it leaked. But there are other explanations for lab workers getting sick. They could have been working on samples of this virus without knowing it, and not taken enough precautions. They could have infected themselves outside the lab and then each other. The question about what a "Wuhan lab leak" means is a lot too early, because nothing is known about what exactly happened and probably there will never be enough information, given the general CCP policy. And still, any deliberate attempt to weaponize a Corona virus would be unlikely and require much more evidence. Certain other pathogens, maybe, but not something that has pandemic potential. It just doesn't make sense.
- gremlinsinc 5y ago> And still, any deliberate attempt to weaponize a Corona virus would be unlikely and require much more evidence. Certain other pathogens, maybe, but not something that has pandemic potential. It just doesn't make sense. I'll say first, I'm not a right-wing nut - I'm leftist/socialist and I'm not saying it was a lab leak, but I can see a BIG reason for china to release a pandemic. China is on the cusp of becoming the #1 super power, a pandemic could distract other nations while it raises even more it's economic power. It seems china has faired pretty damn well over the pandemic. China could care less about fatalities, or even world support. If it cared about world support it wouldn't have UYGHURS in prison camps. China doesn't want mass casualties (more mass than covid anyhow), if they want world domination they need survivors to rule, so a pandemic virus with the features of covid seems perfect, or maybe it was just a social experiment to see what the world would do during a pandemic. Pandemic could also weaken local countries they might be eyeing to take over - like Taiwan, even though they handled it pretty well there, but others like India maybe? Or maybe it was just an accidental leak, but they were still experimenting with it from a "potential weapon" - standpoint. Whether you fire a missile on purpose or accidental there's still repercussions following.
- nieve 5y agoEven assuming they'd do such a thing it doesn't make any sense to do a deliberate release on their own citizens. Chinese intelligence is good enough to do a secret release on someone else's territory and even if scientists quite reasonably asked how the coronavirus in question had made it from China to say Brazil there'd be less political exposure. Doing it to themselves when they were manifestly not ready to handle the public health side would have been just plain dumb. I don't doubt that the morals and ethics of the ruling party could be that weak, I just don't think a China release of an COVID-like virus is an approach they'd see as worth it.
- dec0dedab0de 5y agoI think this is the natural outcome of putting too much emphasis into "accountability.". People will cover things up. Even if it wasn't their fault they'll lie to make sure there is no evidence pointing at them. Obviously with much smaller stakes, this is why I try to take blame for every problem on my team. Even if it clearly wasn't my fault, I say something like "oh I've done that before, I should have warned you". It's more important to focus on how to fix things than it is to cast blame. Back to the story, If it was a covered up lab leak, that means they likely had more data available that they could have shared sooner. They didn't because they were afraid of the consequences. The whole idea of CYA/saving face needs to just go away.
- bryanrasmussen 5y ago>It would shake science to its foundations for carrying out risky research despite clear warnings of the dangers, and then collaborating in an epic whitewash. This is a ridiculous assertion. First off 'science' has done lots of risky research and created things that were frightening or dangerous, atomic weapons spring to mind, and I don't think science was shaken to its core. If anything every dangerous thing science creates leads to more trust in science - at least in the centers of power, the common perception of scientists of course takes a hit whenever this happens. second of all science as a whole did not do a coverup or anything, and since the article mentions brave scientists fighting against the perception that it was not possible it seems the article does not even believe its own hype. third of all science is even less of a person that a corporation is; science will not be shaken to its core, science will not stop going out in public, preferring instead to stay home and get drunk in the dark of their living room. Science won't get up in the morning and, while shaving and looking in the mirror, contemplate suicide. Science won't think, it would be so easy, and what does it all mean anyway. Science will not go on a trip around the world, develop a drug habit, and engage in lurid sexual escapades with Dance and Medicine (which, some will argue, amounts to incest) before settling down in a long term committed relationship with Carpentry. Science will not be shaken to its core, although perhaps some scientists will. on edit: removed rude comment regarding the intelligence of the writer, even though that quote is so infuriating I might edit it back in later.
- dazsnow 5y agomore American propaganda
- tzs 5y ago> It has taken 17 months since the new coronavirus supposedly erupted, but the lab leak hypothesis has finally come in from the cold. "Supposedly erupted"?
- satonakamoto 5y agoYeah, blame Chinese lab like blame e-cigarette https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932020_vaping_lung_illness_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932020_vaping_lung_... US lung illness outbreak 2019-9 Military World Games(Wuhan) 2019-10-18 Dig into these patient's therapeutic documents!