5 ms·

Seems like a lot of risk in the system but where to invest? So I'm buying a farm in Iowa. Prices haven't appreciated very much in 10 years, and the Fed can't pr

by 29_29 5y ago

Seems like a lot of risk in the system but where to invest? So I'm buying a farm in Iowa. Prices haven't appreciated very much in 10 years, and the Fed can't print farmland

s3r3nity 5y ago
A relative told me something similar once when I was younger and skeptical about buying a house, because it's a depreciating asset class that didn't make sense to me why it increases in value. His advice: "Population will continue to grow - but you can't make more land."
- codyb 5y ago
  According to the NYTimes (although I believe the UN has been saying this for years as I've seen the charts for a long while now), we're do in for a sharp contraction on population growth with an eventual decline. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/22/world/global-population-shrinking.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/22/world/global-population-s...
  - bhouston 5y ago
    This is the coming housing correction. It is likely that we will decide to just depopulate undesirable areas completely. Because if you get under a threshold of density a lot of city infrastructure doesn’t make sense. I wonder what we can learn from what is happening in Japan?
    - yellow_lead 5y ago
      There was also an article posted here a while back noting that many American cities are too dependent on population growth to fund their infrastructure projects. They are essentially borrowing against expected growth and if that growth doesn't come, some cities could be left with a huge debt.
      - tony0x02 5y ago
        Probably sourced from strongtowns
  - beachwood23 5y ago
    This exact problem is why immigration is so heavily supported by liberals around the world. Europe has slowing birth rates, so they need large numbers of immigrants to find growth. The issue is a bit more acute there than in the US, but we will run into this sooner than later.
    - weasel_words 5y ago
      That's a curious take. Source?
    - kwertyoowiyop 5y ago
      Conservatives love it too. At least the millionaires and billionaires do.
      - meepmorp 5y ago
        In this case, the term could mean economic liberalism.
  - delaynomore 5y ago
    Location, location, location?
- runawaybottle 5y ago
  America has enough land. What we don’t have is good enough infrastructure to connect these areas to make them viable parts of the commerce network. Tri-State area in the Northeast is a good example of ‘almost, but no cigar’. Sure, you can live in some parts of Connecticut/NJ/Upstate and commute to NYC, but I feel like it should be a lot better. Bullet trains would expand what’s possible. Imagine living in Philly and commuting to NY or vice versa in a reasonable amount of time. Building (no pun) our way out of this mess is one way, but not enough. We need better/faster travel, and unfortunately that initiative should have started 10 years ago. We’re too behind on that front, so I’m not optimistic about the housing market being properly saturated with houses to keep the frenzy at bay. The places where they will have to build are not viable if you need to get to an economic center daily. Edit: One thing I think the federal government can incentivize is to subsidize companies to not have a large headquarters anywhere. Find a tax break for companies to create distributed offices across at least 3-5 states. That’s a great way to let people relocate in a safe way (same company, different office), and help build new economic centers.
- paxys 5y ago
  It's going to be a very, very long time before there's an actual shortage of land in America. Take a flight from New York to San Francisco and look down the entire time. Just an endless expanse of...nothing. The only thing that changes within the span of a decade or even a single lifetime is desirable vs undesirable land. Purchasing property isn't as much of a "sure thing" as everyone believes. Housing prices are dictated mostly by local policy and speculation rather than physical space.
  - 29_29 5y ago
    I'm using farmland to diversify my portfolio, it produces income, I don't think anyone is arguing we will run out of land. Cash and Bonds are risky now, so this is a holding that will not be debased. Its also fun! I feel like I'm living a real life Stardew Valley
- ellyagg 5y ago
  You can't make more land but there's actually plenty of land. Some kind of policy disruption could happen to make the land we do have much more accessible. Obviously land barons will fight this tooth and nail as they do and always have – but times are changing faster and faster in many ways.
- imtringued 5y ago
  That's just rent seeking.
pengaru 5y ago
> the Fed can't print farmland The Fed can't print any kind of land, why such specificity?
- ysavir 5y ago
  In a sense we can print land--that just means building vertically. Building a 10 story building is essentially adding 9 layers of land. But that land won't have farmable topsoil.
  - dmautz 5y ago
    But what about vertical farming? It should continue to get more efficient.
    - NortySpock 5y ago
      You'd have to make it more efficient by either (a) adding IP (gengineering crops to grow more efficiently (b) driving down the cost of inputs (light/water/nutrients) (c) making production really dense to offset the cost of building a skyscraper even more than just buying cheap farmland I'm curious how much more cost efficient vertical farming can really get.
    - atatatat 5y ago
      Something's missing, there, as far as properly reproducing conditions, but I haven't figured it out yet.
    - PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
      It needs more than efficiency. It's a great way to produce flavor and nutrient-dense food, but is almost unusable for calorie-dense food. That has to change before it's more than an interesting idea.
    - imtringued 5y ago
      You are losing out on free energy from the sun. You'll have to generate it yourself.
n0mad01 5y ago
that is also what bill gates seems to be doing - bying farmland - he is the biggest private owner of farmland in the united states by now [0]. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/05/bill-gates-climate-crisis-farmland https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/05/bill-g...

by 29_29 5y ago

Seems like a lot of risk in the system but where to invest? So I'm buying a farm in Iowa. Prices haven't appreciated very much in 10 years, and the Fed can't print farmland

s3r3nity 5y ago

A relative told me something similar once when I was younger and skeptical about buying a house, because it's a depreciating asset class that didn't make sense to me why it increases in value. His advice: "Population will continue to grow - but you can't make more land."

codyb 5y ago
According to the NYTimes (although I believe the UN has been saying this for years as I've seen the charts for a long while now), we're do in for a sharp contraction on population growth with an eventual decline. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/22/world/global-population-shrinking.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/22/world/global-population-s...
- bhouston 5y ago
  This is the coming housing correction. It is likely that we will decide to just depopulate undesirable areas completely. Because if you get under a threshold of density a lot of city infrastructure doesn’t make sense. I wonder what we can learn from what is happening in Japan?
  - yellow_lead 5y ago
    There was also an article posted here a while back noting that many American cities are too dependent on population growth to fund their infrastructure projects. They are essentially borrowing against expected growth and if that growth doesn't come, some cities could be left with a huge debt.
    - tony0x02 5y ago
      Probably sourced from strongtowns
- beachwood23 5y ago
  This exact problem is why immigration is so heavily supported by liberals around the world. Europe has slowing birth rates, so they need large numbers of immigrants to find growth. The issue is a bit more acute there than in the US, but we will run into this sooner than later.
  - weasel_words 5y ago
    That's a curious take. Source?
  - kwertyoowiyop 5y ago
    Conservatives love it too. At least the millionaires and billionaires do.
    - meepmorp 5y ago
      In this case, the term could mean economic liberalism.
- delaynomore 5y ago
  Location, location, location?
runawaybottle 5y ago
America has enough land. What we don’t have is good enough infrastructure to connect these areas to make them viable parts of the commerce network. Tri-State area in the Northeast is a good example of ‘almost, but no cigar’. Sure, you can live in some parts of Connecticut/NJ/Upstate and commute to NYC, but I feel like it should be a lot better. Bullet trains would expand what’s possible. Imagine living in Philly and commuting to NY or vice versa in a reasonable amount of time. Building (no pun) our way out of this mess is one way, but not enough. We need better/faster travel, and unfortunately that initiative should have started 10 years ago. We’re too behind on that front, so I’m not optimistic about the housing market being properly saturated with houses to keep the frenzy at bay. The places where they will have to build are not viable if you need to get to an economic center daily. Edit: One thing I think the federal government can incentivize is to subsidize companies to not have a large headquarters anywhere. Find a tax break for companies to create distributed offices across at least 3-5 states. That’s a great way to let people relocate in a safe way (same company, different office), and help build new economic centers.
paxys 5y ago
It's going to be a very, very long time before there's an actual shortage of land in America. Take a flight from New York to San Francisco and look down the entire time. Just an endless expanse of...nothing. The only thing that changes within the span of a decade or even a single lifetime is desirable vs undesirable land. Purchasing property isn't as much of a "sure thing" as everyone believes. Housing prices are dictated mostly by local policy and speculation rather than physical space.
- 29_29 5y ago
  I'm using farmland to diversify my portfolio, it produces income, I don't think anyone is arguing we will run out of land. Cash and Bonds are risky now, so this is a holding that will not be debased. Its also fun! I feel like I'm living a real life Stardew Valley
ellyagg 5y ago
You can't make more land but there's actually plenty of land. Some kind of policy disruption could happen to make the land we do have much more accessible. Obviously land barons will fight this tooth and nail as they do and always have – but times are changing faster and faster in many ways.
imtringued 5y ago
That's just rent seeking.

pengaru 5y ago

> the Fed can't print farmland The Fed can't print any kind of land, why such specificity?

ysavir 5y ago
In a sense we can print land--that just means building vertically. Building a 10 story building is essentially adding 9 layers of land. But that land won't have farmable topsoil.
- dmautz 5y ago
  But what about vertical farming? It should continue to get more efficient.
  - NortySpock 5y ago
    You'd have to make it more efficient by either (a) adding IP (gengineering crops to grow more efficiently (b) driving down the cost of inputs (light/water/nutrients) (c) making production really dense to offset the cost of building a skyscraper even more than just buying cheap farmland I'm curious how much more cost efficient vertical farming can really get.
  - atatatat 5y ago
    Something's missing, there, as far as properly reproducing conditions, but I haven't figured it out yet.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
    It needs more than efficiency. It's a great way to produce flavor and nutrient-dense food, but is almost unusable for calorie-dense food. That has to change before it's more than an interesting idea.
  - imtringued 5y ago
    You are losing out on free energy from the sun. You'll have to generate it yourself.

n0mad01 5y ago

that is also what bill gates seems to be doing - bying farmland - he is the biggest private owner of farmland in the united states by now [0]. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/05/bill-gates-climate-crisis-farmland https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/05/bill-g...