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- Drop the drones from a larger aircraft (e.g. Xi'an Y-20). - Computer vision is incredibly cheap and small in 2021 (particularly "hit this giant thing that lo
by Someone1234 5y ago
- Drop the drones from a larger aircraft (e.g. Xi'an Y-20).
- Computer vision is incredibly cheap and small in 2021 (particularly "hit this giant thing that looks like a warship").
Western military thinking is obsessed with ever advancing technological solutions (with high associated costs/limited numbers). But "massing," be it small boats or small aircraft/drones defeats it consistently. Good enough is often good enough.
No matter how good your technological advantage is, it can never be in two/four/six places at once and that $1M smart defensive missile can only shoot down so many incoming targets.
That's why the US's nuclear defense was ultimately MAD, because Russia simply built tons of dumb/cheap nukes that overwhelmed anything the US could shoot down even assuming the perfect defensive platform. If the defense is 10x or 100x the cost/space/complexity, you'll win the mass war every time.
We need more Embraer Super Tucanos and less F-35s, because an F-35 can never be in eight places at once no matter how advanced it is, same logic with cheap & small Vs. expensive & large warships. Warships need more computer controlled guns that shoot big bullets and less smart missiles that take up 100x the space, 100x the cost, and thus you get 100x less supply.
A drone is an Embraer Super Tucano on steroids, because now you've reduced the pilot cost/limitation. The fact that the US doesn't already have offensive/defensive drone swarms means they're asleep at the wheel.
- adriancr 5y agolarger aircraft would be downed before it would get in range
- f38zf5vdt 5y agoOr, you could just shoot lots of autonomous supersonic missiles at the ship from the aircraft. Drones seem to have a lot of disadvantages to previous generations of rocket technology.
- captainredbeard 5y agoDude we don’t need Tucanos, we need stuff like F15X
- Someone1234 5y agoMaybe both, depends on the theater. Over water, I agree the F15X is the better option.
- lumost 5y agoNaval guns are awful compared to missiles. Even with computer control a big long range gun will often run out of bullets before sinking an opposing ship as accuracy decreases quadratically with range. Any modern air defenses/fighters will both outrange and destroy aircraft such as the Super Tucano which won't be able to mount sufficient radar to observe even non-stealth F-15s. A Super Tucano retails for 11 million dollars as a base cost and 30 million dollars typical expense. The drone swarm concept only really works when you get radically below the marginal cost of AA missiles making it impractical to shoot down the adversary force. A propeller plane can typically win a dogfight against a modern jet in a guns battle.
- Someone1234 5y ago> Even with computer control a big long range gun will often run out of bullets before sinking an opposing ship as accuracy decreases quadratically with range. We're talking about defensive missiles and guns, nobody is using a defensive gun to try and sink an enemy warship. > Any modern air defenses/fighters will both outrange and destroy aircraft such as the Super Tucano which won't be able to mount sufficient radar to observe even non-stealth F-15s. Of course, that's a built-in assumption. Another built in assumption is that it is a 1:4 or 1:8 F-35:Super Tucano ratio, since it is a "mass" strategy. A lot of cheap "good enough" assets instead of fewer incredible ones. Even if the F-35 has air superiority where it is, it doesn't where it isn't, that's both obvious but also the trap the US has walked into by reducing the number and increasing the technological superiority. Drone swarms are the ultimate anti F-35, because they're cheap, mass in numbers, and "good enough." The F-35 literally doesn't have the munitions onboard to kill more than half a dozen.
- lumost 5y ago> Of course, that's a built-in assumption. Another built in assumption is that it is a 1:4 or 1:8 F-35:Super Tucano ratio, since it is a "mass" strategy. A lot of cheap "good enough" assets instead of fewer incredible ones. Considering that an F-35 currently goes 20:1 with F-15's the ratio with a Tucano could easily be 1:100 or even 1:1000. Given the speed and range differences F-35's could likely return to base, reload and return to fighting the approaching Tucanos for a 30:1+ ratio on the Tucano's for a given wave. The salient datapoint would be when it is cost ineffective to shoot A2A missiles at the Tucano/Drone and the F-35s simply wouldn't be able to reload again.
- AnimalMuppet 5y ago> The fact that the US doesn't already have offensive/defensive drone swarms means they're asleep at the wheel. How sure are you that the US doesn't have drone swarms? They haven't announced that they have them. So far as I have seen, it hasn't leaked that they have them. But I suspect that the US military has several capabilities that are not generally known.
- greedo 5y agoIf you're trying to drop these "cheap" drones from a Y-20, you need to get the Y-20 within range of the carrier. Good luck with that...