4 ms·

What happened in Manaus/Brazil(high re-infection rate even after the city reached herd immunity) shows that's not that simple and they clearly state it "though

What happened in Manaus/Brazil(high re-infection rate even after the city reached herd immunity) shows that's not that simple and they clearly state it "though viral variants could dampen some of the protection they offer"

baybal2 5y ago
Very much it. Getting influenza antibodies once only protects you for that season, until a new strain emerges few months down the line.
- drno123 5y ago
  But influenza virus mutates much more quickly than Sars-cov-2.
  - swiley 5y ago
    "mutates" is probably the wrong word. My understanding is that it combines different genes. That's why the names for different flue viruses always contain numbers: to indicate which forms of the different proteins the genes are expressing.
- toolz 5y ago
  influenza mutates much faster than the covid family [1] - looking at the other coronavirus family there is plenty of reason to have expectations that this will become an endemic mild seasonal cold. The most similar coronaviruses provide life long immunity (please don't mistake immunity as being unable to experience symptoms, just means bad clinical outcomes will likely plummet due to immune system recognition) [2] [1] https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/06/10/sars-cov-2-dna-suggests-single-vaccine-will-be-effective/ https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/06/10/sars-cov-2-dna-suggests-singl... [2]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.17.423313v1.full https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.17.423313v1....
shoto_io 5y ago
Listening to the Prof. Drosten Podcast (German only), he highly doubts that they actually had reached herd immunity before their second deadly wave. He rather assumes something like 40% and then the mutated variant raged on (not badly affecting but infecting the 40% partially, and thus driving the infections).
TMWNN 5y ago
As of today, there are only 84 confirmed cases of reinfection worldwide, with three deaths. https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-t...
- yread 5y ago
  You've linked to an article from August 2020 when it was still very much hoped that reinfections are just a fluke - virus particles not cleaned from the system or something like that. We have better data now, that comes from different methods and agrees quite well: "Protection against repeat infection was 80·5% (95% CI 75·4–84·5).... among those aged 65 years and older, observed protection against repeat infection was 47·1% (95% CI 24·7–62·8)" https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00575-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... "A study of blood donors in the city of Manaus has found that 1 in 6 of those infected with the coronavirus were reinfected with the P.1 variant." https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1353 https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1353 "A previous history of SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with an 84% lower risk of infection," https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00675-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
  - TMWNN 5y ago
    >You've linked to an article from August 2020 That's when the article was first published. As it states, it is updated twice a week. Look at the most recent entries.
    - yread 5y ago
      I see. I didn't study it much after checking that my mom (hospitalized twice 4 months apart) and our music teacher at school (3 months apart) were not listed there. They use a pretty strict measure for "confirmed" - a case study being published. Care to comment on the studies I've linked?
marcosdumay 5y ago
It's not clear at all how many people got COVID in Manaus. Testing was pretty bad at the time, and as a consequence the number of people that actually tested positive was far form enough to make an impact. There was some gossip about an study that indicated a high level of immunity at one time, but when it was released, it actually didn't say that.

baybal2 5y ago

Very much it. Getting influenza antibodies once only protects you for that season, until a new strain emerges few months down the line.

drno123 5y ago
But influenza virus mutates much more quickly than Sars-cov-2.
- swiley 5y ago
  "mutates" is probably the wrong word. My understanding is that it combines different genes. That's why the names for different flue viruses always contain numbers: to indicate which forms of the different proteins the genes are expressing.
toolz 5y ago
influenza mutates much faster than the covid family [1] - looking at the other coronavirus family there is plenty of reason to have expectations that this will become an endemic mild seasonal cold. The most similar coronaviruses provide life long immunity (please don't mistake immunity as being unable to experience symptoms, just means bad clinical outcomes will likely plummet due to immune system recognition) [2] [1] https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/06/10/sars-cov-2-dna-suggests-single-vaccine-will-be-effective/ https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/06/10/sars-cov-2-dna-suggests-singl... [2]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.17.423313v1.full https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.17.423313v1....

shoto_io 5y ago

Listening to the Prof. Drosten Podcast (German only), he highly doubts that they actually had reached herd immunity before their second deadly wave. He rather assumes something like 40% and then the mutated variant raged on (not badly affecting but infecting the 40% partially, and thus driving the infections).

TMWNN 5y ago

As of today, there are only 84 confirmed cases of reinfection worldwide, with three deaths. https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-t...

yread 5y ago
You've linked to an article from August 2020 when it was still very much hoped that reinfections are just a fluke - virus particles not cleaned from the system or something like that. We have better data now, that comes from different methods and agrees quite well: "Protection against repeat infection was 80·5% (95% CI 75·4–84·5).... among those aged 65 years and older, observed protection against repeat infection was 47·1% (95% CI 24·7–62·8)" https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00575-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... "A study of blood donors in the city of Manaus has found that 1 in 6 of those infected with the coronavirus were reinfected with the P.1 variant." https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1353 https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1353 "A previous history of SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with an 84% lower risk of infection," https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00675-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
- TMWNN 5y ago
  >You've linked to an article from August 2020 That's when the article was first published. As it states, it is updated twice a week. Look at the most recent entries.
  - yread 5y ago
    I see. I didn't study it much after checking that my mom (hospitalized twice 4 months apart) and our music teacher at school (3 months apart) were not listed there. They use a pretty strict measure for "confirmed" - a case study being published. Care to comment on the studies I've linked?

marcosdumay 5y ago

It's not clear at all how many people got COVID in Manaus. Testing was pretty bad at the time, and as a consequence the number of people that actually tested positive was far form enough to make an impact. There was some gossip about an study that indicated a high level of immunity at one time, but when it was released, it actually didn't say that.