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This ad reminds me of the old story about how Joe Kennedy knew it was time to get out of the market in 1929 when his shoe-shiner started giving him stock tips.

by slg 5y ago

This ad reminds me of the old story about how Joe Kennedy knew it was time to get out of the market in 1929 when his shoe-shiner started giving him stock tips. In a way, I think this ad might be evidence of the exact opposite thing it is saying.

TechBro8615 5y ago
Yeah, it’s such a well-known trope that I have to assume the ad is intentionally referencing it. But then it makes no sense!
- slg 5y ago
  I'm not sure either. They make no effort to subvert or even argue against that trope. Why reference a trope that argues the opposite of your point without putting in any effort to refute it?
  - tobyjsullivan 5y ago
    Maybe it's the same as how scam emails are intentionally obvious.[0] They want to filter out anyone smart enough to spot a scam before they waste time. In Luno's case, they might be trying to filter out anyone with any shred of investment knowledge. [0] https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/82814/secretly-smart-reason-scam-emails-are-poorly-written https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/82814/secretly-smart-rea...
  - OminousWeapons 5y ago
    They're trying to fool noobs into believing they are the smart money: "Look at this hype, if I get in now I can make a ton of money before the house of cards collapses".
- lupire 5y ago
  You are overestimating the average person's ability to distinguish a premise from its negation, and underestimating the power of word association. People are like Google search. "foo" and "not foo" both trigger an association with "foo".
- detritus 5y ago
  I think you're over/underthinking the sheer cynicism at play in the minds of the people who designed and OK'd that ad going out. I found it laughable when I first saw it months back, on the side of a bus. Like, "What?! It's the absolute worst time to buy!".
  - kebman 5y ago
    Well if you saw it in March, then you're probably right. That's when smart money had already started selling off.
- rchaud 5y ago
  It makes perfect sense. They're advertising in the subway, not the Financial Times.
speeder 5y ago
These are kinda different. For Bitcoin this is about it gaining mainstream recognition, in a way it still is not recognized, since some countries want to ban it, in others it is unregulated and so on. But for 1929 is about when even people that normally wouldn't be investing, think they are good investors because they are investing and getting impressive returns, it means the stock market is overheated, and more sensible investments are not giving enough returns. That said we are in a 1929 situation right now, in my opinion, not only stocks keep rising, but seeing even meme cryptos skyrocketing, a rise in employment in cassinos bigger than employment in production (according to jobs data in US), and seeing people that can't pay their own expenses properly "investing", makes me think something is seriously wrong with the economy, not just in US mind you, I am seeing in other countries a rapid proliferation of investment advice online courses and coaches, rapid gains in questionable investments, a rise in popularity of scams and pyramid schemes, basically people want to save, can't figure out how to save, and are burning money in the cheapest options (meanwhile a good choice would be buy land for example, but despite me being in the top 5% richest in my country, I can't afford any, at all! I live in a "projects" style rented apartment and despite me wanting to actually farm, all my income is going in paying the ever increasing food, medicine and rent costs! I can't afford buying property, much less electronics, toys, etc... that would move the economy beyond the bare mininum).
- nullc 5y ago
  People are exchanging their dollars for dog money: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbI31x3FpS0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbI31x3FpS0
  - mdoms 5y ago
    Jesus fucking Christ that's a stupid annoying video.
  - CrazyPyroLinux 5y ago
    I knew what this was before even clicking. Remy is the best!
- slg 5y ago
oefrha 5y ago
People were referencing exactly this in 2018 when BTC hit $20k and even taxi drivers were talking about cryptocurrency. It then crashed a bit and people felt vindicated. Little did they know at the time that it would rise again all the way to $60k, and people are fucking buying decommissioned power plants to mine… And it’s not just BTC, meme shitcoins created within an hour are apparently serious business now. Rationality is mostly out of the window, it’s hard to predict anything anymore (well, at least harder than ever).
- Retric 5y ago
  Bitcoin “crashed” again, it’s at 39k. Also, people where right at 20k, it fell down to 3k which was a much better time to buy. Really though the only numbers that matter are when you buy and when you sell. Some people got rich buying at 30$ and selling recently, others lost money buying at those same prices but selling at the wrong time.
- rchaud 5y ago
  > it’s hard to predict anything anymore Only 3 certainties in life: death, taxes, and your crypto exchange experiencing lengthy outages when people try to cash out.
- grey-area 5y ago
  This is how people get sucked into a bubble near the top - it’s hard to watch other people getting rich with no effort.
- fnord77 5y ago
  the 1929 and 1932 stock crashes weren't a straight path down.
tyre 5y ago
A fun continuation is that Joe Kennedy made a lot of money insider-trading. He then helped to create and was the first Chairman of the SEC, closing off numerous avenues for others to get wealthy how he did. You gotta respect the gusto.
- GPerson 5y ago
  Let’s not respect the gusto. Just going to quote a brilliant observation shared on hn yesterday by wolverine876. “There's a 'hot' subculture in our society that says 'if you ain't cheating, you ain't trying', that refers to lies as 'hustle', that rewards and embraces deception as just agressiveness and boldness, as a norm for life and business and even a celebration of human nature - as if the worst elements of human nature define us any more than the best, as if we don't have that choice (at least, that's how I am trying to articulate it).”
fnord77 5y ago
I believe it was J.P. Morgan https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/5273325-j-p-morgan-tells-the-story-of-how-he-would https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/5273325-j-p-morgan-tells-th...
matheusmoreira 5y ago
In 2017 a lot of people I know randomly called me to ask about bitcoin. I didn't own any at the time but I knew it was only a matter of time before it would crash. It can't be a good sign when people who never heard about it before suddenly start wanting to sell property in order to invest in it.
nly 5y ago
Saw this poster at my local station the other week, so yeah ..selling would have been a great idea then
cyanydeez 5y ago
also, this is how brexit worked

by slg 5y ago

TechBro8615 5y ago

Yeah, it’s such a well-known trope that I have to assume the ad is intentionally referencing it. But then it makes no sense!

slg 5y ago
I'm not sure either. They make no effort to subvert or even argue against that trope. Why reference a trope that argues the opposite of your point without putting in any effort to refute it?
- tobyjsullivan 5y ago
  Maybe it's the same as how scam emails are intentionally obvious.[0] They want to filter out anyone smart enough to spot a scam before they waste time. In Luno's case, they might be trying to filter out anyone with any shred of investment knowledge. [0] https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/82814/secretly-smart-reason-scam-emails-are-poorly-written https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/82814/secretly-smart-rea...
- OminousWeapons 5y ago
  They're trying to fool noobs into believing they are the smart money: "Look at this hype, if I get in now I can make a ton of money before the house of cards collapses".
lupire 5y ago
You are overestimating the average person's ability to distinguish a premise from its negation, and underestimating the power of word association. People are like Google search. "foo" and "not foo" both trigger an association with "foo".
detritus 5y ago
I think you're over/underthinking the sheer cynicism at play in the minds of the people who designed and OK'd that ad going out. I found it laughable when I first saw it months back, on the side of a bus. Like, "What?! It's the absolute worst time to buy!".
- kebman 5y ago
  Well if you saw it in March, then you're probably right. That's when smart money had already started selling off.
rchaud 5y ago
It makes perfect sense. They're advertising in the subway, not the Financial Times.

speeder 5y ago

These are kinda different. For Bitcoin this is about it gaining mainstream recognition, in a way it still is not recognized, since some countries want to ban it, in others it is unregulated and so on. But for 1929 is about when even people that normally wouldn't be investing, think they are good investors because they are investing and getting impressive returns, it means the stock market is overheated, and more sensible investments are not giving enough returns. That said we are in a 1929 situation right now, in my opinion, not only stocks keep rising, but seeing even meme cryptos skyrocketing, a rise in employment in cassinos bigger than employment in production (according to jobs data in US), and seeing people that can't pay their own expenses properly "investing", makes me think something is seriously wrong with the economy, not just in US mind you, I am seeing in other countries a rapid proliferation of investment advice online courses and coaches, rapid gains in questionable investments, a rise in popularity of scams and pyramid schemes, basically people want to save, can't figure out how to save, and are burning money in the cheapest options (meanwhile a good choice would be buy land for example, but despite me being in the top 5% richest in my country, I can't afford any, at all! I live in a "projects" style rented apartment and despite me wanting to actually farm, all my income is going in paying the ever increasing food, medicine and rent costs! I can't afford buying property, much less electronics, toys, etc... that would move the economy beyond the bare mininum).

nullc 5y ago
People are exchanging their dollars for dog money: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbI31x3FpS0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbI31x3FpS0
- mdoms 5y ago
  Jesus fucking Christ that's a stupid annoying video.
- CrazyPyroLinux 5y ago
  I knew what this was before even clicking. Remy is the best!
slg 5y ago

oefrha 5y ago

People were referencing exactly this in 2018 when BTC hit $20k and even taxi drivers were talking about cryptocurrency. It then crashed a bit and people felt vindicated. Little did they know at the time that it would rise again all the way to $60k, and people are fucking buying decommissioned power plants to mine… And it’s not just BTC, meme shitcoins created within an hour are apparently serious business now. Rationality is mostly out of the window, it’s hard to predict anything anymore (well, at least harder than ever).

Retric 5y ago
Bitcoin “crashed” again, it’s at 39k. Also, people where right at 20k, it fell down to 3k which was a much better time to buy. Really though the only numbers that matter are when you buy and when you sell. Some people got rich buying at 30$ and selling recently, others lost money buying at those same prices but selling at the wrong time.
rchaud 5y ago
> it’s hard to predict anything anymore Only 3 certainties in life: death, taxes, and your crypto exchange experiencing lengthy outages when people try to cash out.
grey-area 5y ago
This is how people get sucked into a bubble near the top - it’s hard to watch other people getting rich with no effort.
fnord77 5y ago
the 1929 and 1932 stock crashes weren't a straight path down.

tyre 5y ago

A fun continuation is that Joe Kennedy made a lot of money insider-trading. He then helped to create and was the first Chairman of the SEC, closing off numerous avenues for others to get wealthy how he did. You gotta respect the gusto.

GPerson 5y ago
Let’s not respect the gusto. Just going to quote a brilliant observation shared on hn yesterday by wolverine876. “There's a 'hot' subculture in our society that says 'if you ain't cheating, you ain't trying', that refers to lies as 'hustle', that rewards and embraces deception as just agressiveness and boldness, as a norm for life and business and even a celebration of human nature - as if the worst elements of human nature define us any more than the best, as if we don't have that choice (at least, that's how I am trying to articulate it).”

fnord77 5y ago

I believe it was J.P. Morgan https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/5273325-j-p-morgan-tells-the-story-of-how-he-would https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/5273325-j-p-morgan-tells-th...

matheusmoreira 5y ago

In 2017 a lot of people I know randomly called me to ask about bitcoin. I didn't own any at the time but I knew it was only a matter of time before it would crash. It can't be a good sign when people who never heard about it before suddenly start wanting to sell property in order to invest in it.

nly 5y ago

Saw this poster at my local station the other week, so yeah ..selling would have been a great idea then

cyanydeez 5y ago

also, this is how brexit worked