4 ms·

A big tangent but I remember a podcast with Sir David King, UK chief scientific advisor - So, Sir David, what's worries you most? - The Greenland Ice Sheet.

A big tangent but I remember a podcast with Sir David King, UK chief scientific advisor - So, Sir David, what's worries you most? - The Greenland Ice Sheet. If it melts human civilisation is finished. - oh. And err is it melting? - Yes, and accelerating. - Oh.

samatman 5y ago
Estimates of total Greenland contributions to sea-level rise by 2100 range from a low of 2.1cm to a high of 5cm. I'm going to choose to worry about other things. https://www.carbonbrief.org/new-climate-models-suggest-faster-melting-of-the-greenland-ice-sheet https://www.carbonbrief.org/new-climate-models-suggest-faste... Those of you downvoting me to banish your anxiety should find a healthier outlet for your issues.
- bregma 5y ago
  Yes, but up to 7 m over the next 200,000 years. You might want to short boardwalk futures.
  - ninju 5y ago
    The article does not mention 200,000 years. It calls out concerns by the end of the 21 century...which is only 80 yrs away
  - uncoder0 5y ago
    My investment horizon doesn't stretch out 200k years as I don't have dynastic wealth so I'll pass on that advice.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- ska 5y ago
  I'm not sure where you got those. IPCC 2019 report estimated the Greenland contributions in the 10-30cm range, and the link you gave is mostly about newer models suggesting a bit higher than 2019 IPCC, so suggest at the higher end (or above) of that range. The only related thing I could find in your linked report was to estimate contributions up by 2.6cm/2.8 cm/5cm (different scenarios) from CMIP5 to CMIP6, not in total. Maybe I missed something?
- cjsplat 5y ago
  Thank you for sourcing your data! That carbonbrief article links to the underlying paper at : https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8 The paper reports on an update of previous studies, and the results are reported mainly as changes from the previous material to reflect the impact that changes in the modelling decisions. I can't tell where the 2.1 cm to 5 cm numbers come from (searching the paper for "2.1" is interesting). Here is a table from the paper reported as total sea level impact estimates and 1 stddev range, rather than deltas : https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8/tables/1 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8/tables/1 It reports the expected 2100 see level rise from Greenland ice melt of 6 different scenarios, in two methodologies. The low, low stddev at 3.7 cm, and the high, high stddev at 25.6 cm. And of course sea level may also be rising from other sources, that just isn't covered in the paper you mention. You get to pick your personal items to worry about based on your individual assumptions and interests, but if your opinion is based in part on that specific paper you might want to reread it.
jl6 5y ago
Did he explain why?
pmastela 5y ago
Could you elaborate as what about the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet was concerning to Sir David King? Is it the mercury that is released or the rising sea levels it will cause or something else?
- gspr 5y ago
  7 meter rise. If that happens, we're toast. Yes, an Antarctic melt would be worse, but it's far less likely.
  - barbacoa 5y ago
    Humans have experienced 120m sea level rise since the last ice age. We can only hope this last 7m wont finish us off.
    - SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
      While that's true, we didn't have as many major centers with permanent buildings set up. I'm looking for data, but I imagine that places like New York would be underwater, would they not?
      - barbacoa 5y ago
        Sea level rise is measured at 3.5mm/yr[1] as of 2016 so at current rate it will take 2000 years to hit 7m. NYC may be underwater but it would in all likelihood be as irrelevant to the future as Tyre or Carthage is today. [1]https://ocean.si.edu/through-time/ancient-seas/sea-level-rise https://ocean.si.edu/through-time/ancient-seas/sea-level-ris...
        ninju 5y ago
        The concern is the acceleration of the sea level rise "Whether it takes another 200 or 2000 years largely depends on how quickly the ice sheets melt. Even if global warming were to stop today, sea level would continue to rise." -- from the same article (2 sentences later)
wiremine 5y ago
I couldn't find the original source, but here's a link that mentions the comment. Anybody have the original source? https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/pt.5.020563/full/ https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/pt.5.020563/fu...

samatman 5y ago

Estimates of total Greenland contributions to sea-level rise by 2100 range from a low of 2.1cm to a high of 5cm. I'm going to choose to worry about other things. https://www.carbonbrief.org/new-climate-models-suggest-faster-melting-of-the-greenland-ice-sheet https://www.carbonbrief.org/new-climate-models-suggest-faste... Those of you downvoting me to banish your anxiety should find a healthier outlet for your issues.

bregma 5y ago
Yes, but up to 7 m over the next 200,000 years. You might want to short boardwalk futures.
- ninju 5y ago
  The article does not mention 200,000 years. It calls out concerns by the end of the 21 century...which is only 80 yrs away
- uncoder0 5y ago
  My investment horizon doesn't stretch out 200k years as I don't have dynastic wealth so I'll pass on that advice.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
ska 5y ago
I'm not sure where you got those. IPCC 2019 report estimated the Greenland contributions in the 10-30cm range, and the link you gave is mostly about newer models suggesting a bit higher than 2019 IPCC, so suggest at the higher end (or above) of that range. The only related thing I could find in your linked report was to estimate contributions up by 2.6cm/2.8 cm/5cm (different scenarios) from CMIP5 to CMIP6, not in total. Maybe I missed something?
cjsplat 5y ago
Thank you for sourcing your data! That carbonbrief article links to the underlying paper at : https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8 The paper reports on an update of previous studies, and the results are reported mainly as changes from the previous material to reflect the impact that changes in the modelling decisions. I can't tell where the 2.1 cm to 5 cm numbers come from (searching the paper for "2.1" is interesting). Here is a table from the paper reported as total sea level impact estimates and 1 stddev range, rather than deltas : https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8/tables/1 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8/tables/1 It reports the expected 2100 see level rise from Greenland ice melt of 6 different scenarios, in two methodologies. The low, low stddev at 3.7 cm, and the high, high stddev at 25.6 cm. And of course sea level may also be rising from other sources, that just isn't covered in the paper you mention. You get to pick your personal items to worry about based on your individual assumptions and interests, but if your opinion is based in part on that specific paper you might want to reread it.

jl6 5y ago

Did he explain why?

pmastela 5y ago

Could you elaborate as what about the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet was concerning to Sir David King? Is it the mercury that is released or the rising sea levels it will cause or something else?

gspr 5y ago
7 meter rise. If that happens, we're toast. Yes, an Antarctic melt would be worse, but it's far less likely.
- barbacoa 5y ago
  Humans have experienced 120m sea level rise since the last ice age. We can only hope this last 7m wont finish us off.
  - SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
    While that's true, we didn't have as many major centers with permanent buildings set up. I'm looking for data, but I imagine that places like New York would be underwater, would they not?
    - barbacoa 5y ago
      Sea level rise is measured at 3.5mm/yr[1] as of 2016 so at current rate it will take 2000 years to hit 7m. NYC may be underwater but it would in all likelihood be as irrelevant to the future as Tyre or Carthage is today. [1]https://ocean.si.edu/through-time/ancient-seas/sea-level-rise https://ocean.si.edu/through-time/ancient-seas/sea-level-ris...
      - ninju 5y ago
        The concern is the acceleration of the sea level rise "Whether it takes another 200 or 2000 years largely depends on how quickly the ice sheets melt. Even if global warming were to stop today, sea level would continue to rise." -- from the same article (2 sentences later)

wiremine 5y ago

I couldn't find the original source, but here's a link that mentions the comment. Anybody have the original source? https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/pt.5.020563/full/ https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/pt.5.020563/fu...