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From the article, a section called "Prediction of the potential for long term protection" at the bottom of the Results: > The estimated neutralization level fo
by mikem170 5y ago
From the article, a section called "Prediction of the potential for long term protection" at the bottom of the Results:
> The estimated neutralization level for protection from severe infection is approximately sixfold lower than the level required to protect from any symptomatic infection. Thus, a higher level of protection against severe infection is expected for any given level of vaccine efficacy against mild SARS-CoV-2 infection. Assuming that this relationship remains constant over time, it appears probable that immunity to severe infection may be much more durable than overall immunity to any infection. Long-term studies of antibody responses to vaccinia, measles, mumps or rubella suggest that these responses generally stabilize with half-lives of >10 years. We therefore projected beyond the reported decay of SARS-CoV-2 responses (out to 8 months after infection5), assuming that after 8 months following the infection the decay rate will slow down. We modeled the decay rate of the neutralization titer, assuming that it slowed linearly to a 10-year half-life over 1, 1.5 or 2 years (details in Methods). This analysis predicts that even without immune boosting, a significant proportion of individuals may maintain long-term protection from severe infection by an antigenically similar strain, even though they may become susceptible to mild infection (Fig. 3b,c).
Sounds like good news. This study appears to be saying that the vaccines do a 6x better job of preventing severe covid infection than the known 94% efficacy preventing even mild symptoms from appearing, and that long term immunity [0] might be expected to last decades, similar to other vaccines.
[0], EDIT: "long term protection against severe sickness", as opposed to "immunity", as pointed out by PeterHolzwarth in comment below
- PeterHolzwarth 5y agoI believe the paper indicates otherwise, in regards to immunity. To help make sense of the paper, I read this Science Daily article that reviews it, and contains some comments from the paper's authors. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/05/210517105727.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/05/210517105727.h... Here, one of the people associated with the paper mentions: "Vaccination works very well to prevent both symptoms and severe disease in the short to medium term, but efficacy is predicted to decline over the first few months for most of these vaccines," "However, it is very important to understand the difference between immunity against infection and protection from developing severe disease. Our study found that a 6-fold lower level of antibodies is required to protect against severe disease. So even though our analysis predicts that we will start losing immunity to mild infection in the first year after vaccination, protection from severe infection should be longer lived," says Dr Khoury. Key is that distinction between immunity and protection against severe sickness.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- mikem170 5y agoI added a clarifying edit to my comment above.
- christkv 5y agoSo it will become endemic and be one of the common colds ?
- ed_balls 5y agopretty much. This what happened with 7 cold viruses and 2* flu viruses. I don't think it's realistic to destroy the virus reservoirs. *not sure if these are the exact number I remember from the lecture.
- gizmo686 5y agoThere are 4 types of influenza, but only types A and B cause seasonal epidemics every year; and are what is targeted by the flu vaccine. Type C can infect humans but is typically mild and has not yet caused a serious epidemic. Type D is not known to infect humans at all.
- belltaco 5y agoNot if a significant fraction refuses to get vaccinated.
- raarts 5y agoI'm one of those people. I (like many) have already had Covid-19, and there is enough research suggesting that naturally acquired immunity protects as least as good (and likely better) than getting one of the vaccines. Now the virus has become endemic, there is much less reason to get vaccinated. For the low-risk and healthy.
- PeterHolzwarth 5y ago