12 ms·

The problem is that there's no real evidence that being tough on crime is a very effective way of solving the problem. You look at jurisdictions that are "soft

The problem is that there's no real evidence that being tough on crime is a very effective way of solving the problem. You look at jurisdictions that are "soft" on crime - Scandinavia, New Zealand etc. and invariably all of them have figured out non-punitive methods of crime reduction that are far more effective than jail. This is reflected in crime statistics. (and before you mention Singapore, it's worth pointing out that they have many, many policies in place to alleviate poverty and social unrest - government housing, world class education, a strong economy, national service etc. in addition to their strict laws. I'm not arguing that the laws do nothing, but you can't just beat an uneducated, poor, fatherless person with a stick and expect them to be a productive member of society.)

samatman 5y ago
What's interesting is we have a sort of 'natural experiment' in the US, where a significant fraction of the population in Minnesota, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and the Dakotas, are descended from Scandinavians. They have a very low crime rate, several times lower than the white average. There was a study on this, and Swedish-Americans and Norwegian-Americans commit crime at about the same rate as Swedes and Norwegians, which is to say, not often.
- Judgmentality 5y ago
  I would really love a link to that paper. A quick google search didn't turn up what I was looking for.
  - samatman 5y ago
    I'm quite sure I'll never see it again. I save papers relevant to my profession and hobbies, and US crime statistics are neither. I did manage to dredge this link up, which says that in 1973, Minnesota had the lowest high school drop-out rate in the nation, and the third-lowest crime after Iowa and Maine. http://news.minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2003/08/12_cunninghamg_timemag/ http://news.minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2003/08/12_cu... Which is no smoking gun, but is suggestive. I'm sure someone could do a deep dive on academic literature in criminology and turn it up, but it won't be me I'm afraid.
- batguano 5y ago
  This is one of the most boldly racist statements I have ever seen on Hacker News.
  - outlace 5y ago
    I can see how it could be interpreted that way. My first reaction was (if the claim is true) that must be cultural memes as the cause, as a genetic cause automatically was implausible to me.
    - RcouF1uZ4gsC 5y ago
      > as a genetic cause automatically was implausible to me. I agree. Given that Scandinavia was the homeland of the Vikings, I think arguing that they have a genetic predisposition away from crime would seem rather absurd.
      - qwytw 5y ago
        Significant amounts of Vikings left Scandinavia to settle other places in Europe, so maybe the ones left behind were less predisposed to commit crimes /s
        renewiltord 5y ago
        This is sort of a variant of the voluntary settlement hypothesis which I always found entertaining.
      - nec4b 5y ago
        Why is it absurd? The most violent ones left Scandinavia and died fighting or settled elsewhere.
    - haram_masala 5y ago
      Why would a genetic cause be implausible? Genetics guide human behavior. It seems very unlikely that behavior doesn’t vary among ethnic groups, but many other phenotypic factors do.
- hakfoo 5y ago
  I've often theorized that what we call "American exceptionalism" (and similarly Canadian, Australian, and New Zealandese) is made up of the fact these countries are very heavily populated with early-generation, by-choice immigrants. The population was effectively self-selected for those ambitious enough to emigrate, and in many areas, tame a new frontier and/or start businesses. They were then dumped in an environment highly supportive to it (cheap land and natural resources, rapid technical advancement providing huge vistas of economic opportunity) That probably has a significant ripple effect for a few generations. (The "Grandpa had to swim across the Atlantic and learn English and sweep floors to get started, so he's going to ride his kids to make sure they get the most of their education" pattern) On the other hand, I suspect there's some toxic counterfactors in that; the celebration of bootstrap-pullers tends to encourage "I've got mine" attitudes and may end up underserving parts of the community that would benefit from more social support and community services.
  - Animats 5y ago
    Not Australia. That was a penal colony.
    - hakfoo 5y ago
      I suspect there was a point where the immigrant mix turned by-choice though.
      - AussieWog93 5y ago
        Not a historian, but I believe this wouldn't have been until either the good rush of post-war migration boom. Either way, several generations after the convicts first arrived.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
aemreunal 5y ago
I suspect a bit of causation-correlation mixup whenever this topic comes up. I have the feeling that the reason why they don't need much punitive measures is because they have so many social safety nets that erase the need to commit crimes in the first place or help people get back in to society after committing a crime. If anyone has any data about whether this is indeed the case or not, I'd love to read about it.
- paulddraper 5y ago
  Same with violence and gun policies. Which is the cause and which is effect? Or even COVID deaths and lockdowns. Policy can be as much as outcome as a cause.
akomtu 5y ago
In Scandinavia and New Zealand people are different.
- AussieWog93 5y ago
  In terms of realised outcome, maybe. In terms of potential, though, the only difference between a Kiwi baby and an American baby is the fact v that the American baby is expected to fend for itself.
  - noofen 5y ago
    Sorry to break this to you, but there are real genetic differences in behavior and impulse control. I know it's not popular to notice now, but in 100 years it will be common knowledge, just like it was 100 years ago.
    - yladiz 5y ago
      Citation needed, especially in context with the comment talking about American vs Kiwi people.
      - noofen 5y ago
        Racial differences in homicide rates are poorly explained by economics [1]. [1]: https://randomcriticalanalysis.com/2015/11/16/racial-differences-in-homicide-rates-are-poorly-explained-by-economics/ https://randomcriticalanalysis.com/2015/11/16/racial-differe...
        maroonblazer 5y ago
        They're also poorly explained by genetics, as evidenced by the blog you cited.
        noofen 5y ago
        The blog I cited found single-motherhood to be the most predictive. > At any given income level, black communities tend towards substantially higher average rates of single-motherhood (which, incidentally, contributes significantly differences in poverty rates as this data is reported). These "large differences in family structure" could be explained by r/K selection theory [1]. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R/K_selection_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R/K_selection_theory
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
slibhb 5y ago
You're making so many assumptions. First, that crime rate is linked to policy. Further, it's bizarre to me that you think comparing San Francisco to Scandinavia makes sense but comparing past San Francisco to present San Francisco doesn't. Neither experiment is particularly good but the latter is better. Leaving that aside for a moment, if there was "evidence" that not punishing murderers was the "best thing for society" (in terms of rehabilitation, crime rate, etc) would you support that policy? For most people, a society that doesn't punish criminals is simply uncivilized. I tend to agree.
- wongarsu 5y ago
  > For most people, a society that doesn't punish criminals is simply uncivilized. I tend to agree. Punishment is one thing, and it certainly is good for a feeling of justice. But the real problem San Francisco is experiencing is lack of deterrent. That's related, but not quite the same. If there is a way to keep up the deterrent, but sacrifice some punishment to get more rehabilitation then that's worth discussing. That's what Scandinavia is trying to do (in addition to other policies that affect crime rate). A prison turns out to be a good deterrent even if you don't get raped there. In comparison, just not prosecuting theft at all is removing not just the punishment, it's also removing the deterrent, and I don't see how it's going to rehabilitate anyone. Obviously punishing the theft as a misdemeanor was supposed to be the deterrent, but without enforcement all that's left is a total failure.
  - Red_Leaves_Flyy 5y ago
    No amount of deterrent is going to remove the motivation of petty thieves. Give them better means to live a dignified existence without resorting to crime and the problem disappears. Such solutions implicitly demand rethinking housing policy, social welfare and jobs programs. A couple other equally effective, on paper, solutions would be imprisonment and slavery of petty thieves, or murdering them (capital punishment, near genocide, crime against humanity). It's important to consider the privilege, assets, and what people stand to gain or lose when considering solutions. I've got no dog in the fight over problems in California. What's clear is that these problems are systemic and demand a federal solution. The people responsible to enact a federal solution are beholden to the people who stand to lose the most if these systemic issues of housing, healthcare, income, and the like are solved. Tech workers have more in common with the homeless people they step over to get to work than the f500 CEOs telling paying Congress to stall and distract. Bridging this class divide and building solidarity with people we've been taught to think ourselves better than is a foundational step in building the grassroots needed to force change.
diogenescynic 5y ago
There’s been a noticeable decline in rule of law and quality of life since prop 47 and prop 57 passed. I disagree. Many of these people are prolific criminals but there is no cash bail either so they are arrested, released, and then not put on trial for 6-9 months all the while committing more crimes and for the most part the DAs don’t even bother to prosecute.
smsm42 5y ago
Except in SF there's no "non-punitive methods of crime reduction". They just declared that it's OK to rob grocery stores or pharmacies, as long as you take less than a grand. At least that's what it looks on the ground - whatever the initial design was, both the criminals know they can steal with impunity, and the cops know it's no longer their business to catch the thieves. And so the thievery thrives, and the stores are collapsing under this assault. We may talk about Scandinavia all day but I don't think that's what is happening there. Whatever nice theory they had about it when proposing it, it is clear from the result that it is a complete failure if reducing crime were any of their goals.
exporectomy 5y ago
You can't compare the US to those countries because they don't have blacks who contribute a vastly disproportionate amount to crime in the US. In absolute numbers, blacks commit more "murder and nonnegligent manslaughter" and more robbery than whites [1] despite being a much smaller proportion of the population. [1] https://www.ojjdp.gov/ojstatbb/crime/ucr.asp?table_in=2 https://www.ojjdp.gov/ojstatbb/crime/ucr.asp?table_in=2
wfhbata 5y ago
Is there any evidence that being soft on crime has been effective at reducing crime or improving quality of life in San Francisco? Our DAs promised “restorative justice” but in practice criminals get caught in released without consequences or rehabilitation. Is there evidence that this approach hasn’t emboldened organized criminals and contributed to the rise in property crime in recent years?
- gnopgnip 5y ago
  Is there any research that being tough on crime in San Francisco reduces crime or improves the quality of life?
  - wfhbata 5y ago
    The soft-on-crime approach taken over the last decade under Gascon and now Boudin coincided with San Francisco having highest property crime rate of any major US city. Maybe that’s coincidence, but the onus is on those who brought us to this point: Where are the results that were promised? Where is the evidence that we should continue down this path, when by all metrics, it appears to be a disaster?
    - gnopgnip 5y ago
      https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/grants/250872.pdf https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/grants/250872.pdf
darth_avocado 5y ago
> You look at jurisdictions that are "soft" on crime - Scandinavia, New Zealand etc. and invariably all of them have figured out non-punitive methods of crime reduction that are far more effective than jail. You're assuming what works for X works for Y as well, without accounting for an insanely large difference between the culture in the United States and those countries. People are very different here, the education level, the moralities of the society, the concept of "I, me and myself first", the economic conditions, the violence, the mental health issues and many more things. There is a reason why despite having liberal gun laws in Switzerland, there are way less mass shootings than the United States. But what works there won't work here.
- Leherenn 5y ago
  Switzerland doesn't really have liberal gun laws. Ex-conscripts can keep their service weapon at home, but it's tightly regulated (ammos are sealed and aren't to be open except in case of need). You can't buy a gun in a supermarket the way you can in a Walmart in the US, or open/conceal carry a gun. Gun ownership is high due to more or less half the population serving in the army, and the laws are probably more liberal than in neighbouring European countries, but you can't compare it in any way to the US.
DevKoala 5y ago
> The problem is that there's no real evidence that being tough on crime is a very effective way of solving the problem. But this article was just arguing against your point. The crime enforcement laws were relaxed and the crime rose. It is obvious that allowing law enforcers to enforce the law reduces crime. Some people in SF are losing their jobs when the stores close you know? These crimes are not victimless.
- Guvante 5y ago
  > The crime enforcement laws were relaxed and the crime rose. A police officer claimed that technically. I don't know that police officers are the best at making such correlations.
  - mike_d 5y ago
    Management says stop wasting time on testing, just write code and ship it no matter what. Tons of bugs start coming in for things that should have been caught by just trying to run the program. But can you really trust the engineer who is telling you there is a correlation? What are her motives?
asabjorn 5y ago
I come from Norway in Scandinavia and I think you are confusing helping people rehabilitate with being soft on crime. Norway is actually tough on shoplifting. It is not tolerated, and its mitigated by arrest and the police spend resources tracking down sales on online platforms etc. The government also track down the source of money/income that look suspicious, and have the means to do so due to widespread government oversight of all aspects of society. Police will actually help shops or shopping centers remove non-rehabilitated people that have committed thefts in the past.
- mushbino 5y ago
  This is the main difference. We have relatively poor social safety nets in the US and no real regard for rehabilitation. We keep trying to put bandaids on a broken system and it just compounds the suffering.
  - asabjorn 5y ago
    It does, but the Norwegian system is not perfect. It does not work as a mitigation against Eastern European “theft tourists” that come to Norway to steal. This is because Norwegian jails pay inmates per day in addition to being setup for rehabilitation, so they are not a disincentive for “theft tourists” from very poor countries. The Eastern European mafias take advantage of this and ship busses of thieves to Norway. Basically, Norway system of rehabilitation assume strong borders so that you can limit how many you need to help and Schengens free flow of people from some poor Eastern European countries violate this assumption.
    - mushbino 5y ago
      That makes sense. The tough part is that the real solution is uplifting Eastern European countries, but that's a huge challenge. In the short-term, is the cost of property theft worth creating a more draconian society? That's the absolute worst possible solution, imo.
      - asabjorn 5y ago
systemvoltage 5y ago
For that matter, UAE is doing equally well and have low crime rates with a policy that’s completely opposite of Scandinavia. UAE has one of the lowest crime rates in the world.
- namdnay 5y ago
  Hmmm then again, what proportion of crime against domestic staff goes unreported in the UAE would you say? 99%? I have difficulty believing that a mais being taped by her employer in Dubai will ever go and make a police report
ed_balls 5y ago
> "soft" on crime - Scandinavia, Whats does it mean soft? Sweden has no parole you go straight to jail.
aksss 5y ago
You remind me of the infamous NYT headline, the the effect of “incarceration levels still high despite low crime”. facepalm
- josephcsible 5y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fox_Butterfield#Criticism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fox_Butterfield#Criticism
JI00912 5y ago
> invariably all of them have figured out non-punitive methods of crime reduction that are far more effective than jail Well.. large segments of our populations commit very little crime. But when crime is committed, the police and the justice system are useless. Convicted for the 350th burglary? They'll be let out again and maybe be back tomorrow, if the prosecutor even bothers prosecuting them since it's pointless. So DO look at us for crime prevention but NOT for managing crime when it happens.
- berryjerry 5y ago
  Personally I think there should be escalating punishments for crimes to avoid the "350th burglary" and I thought often history was taken into account but I don't know California or San Francisco's laws. So, first time caught shoplifting should be a fine, second should be community service, third some jail, fourth could be more jail, etc. That doesn't really address the danger involved in actually catching a shoplifter. You really just need more police or a way to recognize shoplifters (facial recognition?) at that point so that regular individuals don't have to become enforcers of the laws. It seems most of the tools that could be most effective are being banned or defunded in certain areas of the US. There should be ways to account for false positives, such as confirming a facial recognition software's results, that the person actually was in the area etc.
wesapien 5y ago
It's not the same because the culture is different.

samatman 5y ago

What's interesting is we have a sort of 'natural experiment' in the US, where a significant fraction of the population in Minnesota, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and the Dakotas, are descended from Scandinavians. They have a very low crime rate, several times lower than the white average. There was a study on this, and Swedish-Americans and Norwegian-Americans commit crime at about the same rate as Swedes and Norwegians, which is to say, not often.

Judgmentality 5y ago
I would really love a link to that paper. A quick google search didn't turn up what I was looking for.
- samatman 5y ago
  I'm quite sure I'll never see it again. I save papers relevant to my profession and hobbies, and US crime statistics are neither. I did manage to dredge this link up, which says that in 1973, Minnesota had the lowest high school drop-out rate in the nation, and the third-lowest crime after Iowa and Maine. http://news.minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2003/08/12_cunninghamg_timemag/ http://news.minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2003/08/12_cu... Which is no smoking gun, but is suggestive. I'm sure someone could do a deep dive on academic literature in criminology and turn it up, but it won't be me I'm afraid.
batguano 5y ago
This is one of the most boldly racist statements I have ever seen on Hacker News.
- outlace 5y ago
  I can see how it could be interpreted that way. My first reaction was (if the claim is true) that must be cultural memes as the cause, as a genetic cause automatically was implausible to me.
  - RcouF1uZ4gsC 5y ago
    > as a genetic cause automatically was implausible to me. I agree. Given that Scandinavia was the homeland of the Vikings, I think arguing that they have a genetic predisposition away from crime would seem rather absurd.
    - qwytw 5y ago
      Significant amounts of Vikings left Scandinavia to settle other places in Europe, so maybe the ones left behind were less predisposed to commit crimes /s
      - renewiltord 5y ago
        This is sort of a variant of the voluntary settlement hypothesis which I always found entertaining.
    - nec4b 5y ago
      Why is it absurd? The most violent ones left Scandinavia and died fighting or settled elsewhere.
  - haram_masala 5y ago
    Why would a genetic cause be implausible? Genetics guide human behavior. It seems very unlikely that behavior doesn’t vary among ethnic groups, but many other phenotypic factors do.
hakfoo 5y ago
I've often theorized that what we call "American exceptionalism" (and similarly Canadian, Australian, and New Zealandese) is made up of the fact these countries are very heavily populated with early-generation, by-choice immigrants. The population was effectively self-selected for those ambitious enough to emigrate, and in many areas, tame a new frontier and/or start businesses. They were then dumped in an environment highly supportive to it (cheap land and natural resources, rapid technical advancement providing huge vistas of economic opportunity) That probably has a significant ripple effect for a few generations. (The "Grandpa had to swim across the Atlantic and learn English and sweep floors to get started, so he's going to ride his kids to make sure they get the most of their education" pattern) On the other hand, I suspect there's some toxic counterfactors in that; the celebration of bootstrap-pullers tends to encourage "I've got mine" attitudes and may end up underserving parts of the community that would benefit from more social support and community services.
- Animats 5y ago
  Not Australia. That was a penal colony.
  - hakfoo 5y ago
    I suspect there was a point where the immigrant mix turned by-choice though.
    - AussieWog93 5y ago
      Not a historian, but I believe this wouldn't have been until either the good rush of post-war migration boom. Either way, several generations after the convicts first arrived.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

aemreunal 5y ago

I suspect a bit of causation-correlation mixup whenever this topic comes up. I have the feeling that the reason why they don't need much punitive measures is because they have so many social safety nets that erase the need to commit crimes in the first place or help people get back in to society after committing a crime. If anyone has any data about whether this is indeed the case or not, I'd love to read about it.

paulddraper 5y ago
Same with violence and gun policies. Which is the cause and which is effect? Or even COVID deaths and lockdowns. Policy can be as much as outcome as a cause.

akomtu 5y ago

In Scandinavia and New Zealand people are different.

AussieWog93 5y ago
In terms of realised outcome, maybe. In terms of potential, though, the only difference between a Kiwi baby and an American baby is the fact v that the American baby is expected to fend for itself.
- noofen 5y ago
  Sorry to break this to you, but there are real genetic differences in behavior and impulse control. I know it's not popular to notice now, but in 100 years it will be common knowledge, just like it was 100 years ago.
  - yladiz 5y ago
    Citation needed, especially in context with the comment talking about American vs Kiwi people.
    - noofen 5y ago
      Racial differences in homicide rates are poorly explained by economics [1]. [1]: https://randomcriticalanalysis.com/2015/11/16/racial-differences-in-homicide-rates-are-poorly-explained-by-economics/ https://randomcriticalanalysis.com/2015/11/16/racial-differe...
      - maroonblazer 5y ago
        They're also poorly explained by genetics, as evidenced by the blog you cited.
        noofen 5y ago
        The blog I cited found single-motherhood to be the most predictive. > At any given income level, black communities tend towards substantially higher average rates of single-motherhood (which, incidentally, contributes significantly differences in poverty rates as this data is reported). These "large differences in family structure" could be explained by r/K selection theory [1]. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R/K_selection_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R/K_selection_theory

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

slibhb 5y ago

You're making so many assumptions. First, that crime rate is linked to policy. Further, it's bizarre to me that you think comparing San Francisco to Scandinavia makes sense but comparing past San Francisco to present San Francisco doesn't. Neither experiment is particularly good but the latter is better. Leaving that aside for a moment, if there was "evidence" that not punishing murderers was the "best thing for society" (in terms of rehabilitation, crime rate, etc) would you support that policy? For most people, a society that doesn't punish criminals is simply uncivilized. I tend to agree.

wongarsu 5y ago
> For most people, a society that doesn't punish criminals is simply uncivilized. I tend to agree. Punishment is one thing, and it certainly is good for a feeling of justice. But the real problem San Francisco is experiencing is lack of deterrent. That's related, but not quite the same. If there is a way to keep up the deterrent, but sacrifice some punishment to get more rehabilitation then that's worth discussing. That's what Scandinavia is trying to do (in addition to other policies that affect crime rate). A prison turns out to be a good deterrent even if you don't get raped there. In comparison, just not prosecuting theft at all is removing not just the punishment, it's also removing the deterrent, and I don't see how it's going to rehabilitate anyone. Obviously punishing the theft as a misdemeanor was supposed to be the deterrent, but without enforcement all that's left is a total failure.
- Red_Leaves_Flyy 5y ago
  No amount of deterrent is going to remove the motivation of petty thieves. Give them better means to live a dignified existence without resorting to crime and the problem disappears. Such solutions implicitly demand rethinking housing policy, social welfare and jobs programs. A couple other equally effective, on paper, solutions would be imprisonment and slavery of petty thieves, or murdering them (capital punishment, near genocide, crime against humanity). It's important to consider the privilege, assets, and what people stand to gain or lose when considering solutions. I've got no dog in the fight over problems in California. What's clear is that these problems are systemic and demand a federal solution. The people responsible to enact a federal solution are beholden to the people who stand to lose the most if these systemic issues of housing, healthcare, income, and the like are solved. Tech workers have more in common with the homeless people they step over to get to work than the f500 CEOs telling paying Congress to stall and distract. Bridging this class divide and building solidarity with people we've been taught to think ourselves better than is a foundational step in building the grassroots needed to force change.

diogenescynic 5y ago

There’s been a noticeable decline in rule of law and quality of life since prop 47 and prop 57 passed. I disagree. Many of these people are prolific criminals but there is no cash bail either so they are arrested, released, and then not put on trial for 6-9 months all the while committing more crimes and for the most part the DAs don’t even bother to prosecute.

smsm42 5y ago

Except in SF there's no "non-punitive methods of crime reduction". They just declared that it's OK to rob grocery stores or pharmacies, as long as you take less than a grand. At least that's what it looks on the ground - whatever the initial design was, both the criminals know they can steal with impunity, and the cops know it's no longer their business to catch the thieves. And so the thievery thrives, and the stores are collapsing under this assault. We may talk about Scandinavia all day but I don't think that's what is happening there. Whatever nice theory they had about it when proposing it, it is clear from the result that it is a complete failure if reducing crime were any of their goals.

exporectomy 5y ago

You can't compare the US to those countries because they don't have blacks who contribute a vastly disproportionate amount to crime in the US. In absolute numbers, blacks commit more "murder and nonnegligent manslaughter" and more robbery than whites [1] despite being a much smaller proportion of the population. [1] https://www.ojjdp.gov/ojstatbb/crime/ucr.asp?table_in=2 https://www.ojjdp.gov/ojstatbb/crime/ucr.asp?table_in=2

wfhbata 5y ago

Is there any evidence that being soft on crime has been effective at reducing crime or improving quality of life in San Francisco? Our DAs promised “restorative justice” but in practice criminals get caught in released without consequences or rehabilitation. Is there evidence that this approach hasn’t emboldened organized criminals and contributed to the rise in property crime in recent years?

gnopgnip 5y ago
Is there any research that being tough on crime in San Francisco reduces crime or improves the quality of life?
- wfhbata 5y ago
  The soft-on-crime approach taken over the last decade under Gascon and now Boudin coincided with San Francisco having highest property crime rate of any major US city. Maybe that’s coincidence, but the onus is on those who brought us to this point: Where are the results that were promised? Where is the evidence that we should continue down this path, when by all metrics, it appears to be a disaster?
  - gnopgnip 5y ago
    https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/grants/250872.pdf https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/grants/250872.pdf

darth_avocado 5y ago

> You look at jurisdictions that are "soft" on crime - Scandinavia, New Zealand etc. and invariably all of them have figured out non-punitive methods of crime reduction that are far more effective than jail. You're assuming what works for X works for Y as well, without accounting for an insanely large difference between the culture in the United States and those countries. People are very different here, the education level, the moralities of the society, the concept of "I, me and myself first", the economic conditions, the violence, the mental health issues and many more things. There is a reason why despite having liberal gun laws in Switzerland, there are way less mass shootings than the United States. But what works there won't work here.

Leherenn 5y ago
Switzerland doesn't really have liberal gun laws. Ex-conscripts can keep their service weapon at home, but it's tightly regulated (ammos are sealed and aren't to be open except in case of need). You can't buy a gun in a supermarket the way you can in a Walmart in the US, or open/conceal carry a gun. Gun ownership is high due to more or less half the population serving in the army, and the laws are probably more liberal than in neighbouring European countries, but you can't compare it in any way to the US.

DevKoala 5y ago

> The problem is that there's no real evidence that being tough on crime is a very effective way of solving the problem. But this article was just arguing against your point. The crime enforcement laws were relaxed and the crime rose. It is obvious that allowing law enforcers to enforce the law reduces crime. Some people in SF are losing their jobs when the stores close you know? These crimes are not victimless.

Guvante 5y ago
> The crime enforcement laws were relaxed and the crime rose. A police officer claimed that technically. I don't know that police officers are the best at making such correlations.
- mike_d 5y ago
  Management says stop wasting time on testing, just write code and ship it no matter what. Tons of bugs start coming in for things that should have been caught by just trying to run the program. But can you really trust the engineer who is telling you there is a correlation? What are her motives?

asabjorn 5y ago

I come from Norway in Scandinavia and I think you are confusing helping people rehabilitate with being soft on crime. Norway is actually tough on shoplifting. It is not tolerated, and its mitigated by arrest and the police spend resources tracking down sales on online platforms etc. The government also track down the source of money/income that look suspicious, and have the means to do so due to widespread government oversight of all aspects of society. Police will actually help shops or shopping centers remove non-rehabilitated people that have committed thefts in the past.

mushbino 5y ago
This is the main difference. We have relatively poor social safety nets in the US and no real regard for rehabilitation. We keep trying to put bandaids on a broken system and it just compounds the suffering.
- asabjorn 5y ago
  It does, but the Norwegian system is not perfect. It does not work as a mitigation against Eastern European “theft tourists” that come to Norway to steal. This is because Norwegian jails pay inmates per day in addition to being setup for rehabilitation, so they are not a disincentive for “theft tourists” from very poor countries. The Eastern European mafias take advantage of this and ship busses of thieves to Norway. Basically, Norway system of rehabilitation assume strong borders so that you can limit how many you need to help and Schengens free flow of people from some poor Eastern European countries violate this assumption.
  - mushbino 5y ago
    That makes sense. The tough part is that the real solution is uplifting Eastern European countries, but that's a huge challenge. In the short-term, is the cost of property theft worth creating a more draconian society? That's the absolute worst possible solution, imo.
    - asabjorn 5y ago

systemvoltage 5y ago

For that matter, UAE is doing equally well and have low crime rates with a policy that’s completely opposite of Scandinavia. UAE has one of the lowest crime rates in the world.

namdnay 5y ago
Hmmm then again, what proportion of crime against domestic staff goes unreported in the UAE would you say? 99%? I have difficulty believing that a mais being taped by her employer in Dubai will ever go and make a police report

ed_balls 5y ago

> "soft" on crime - Scandinavia, Whats does it mean soft? Sweden has no parole you go straight to jail.

aksss 5y ago

You remind me of the infamous NYT headline, the the effect of “incarceration levels still high despite low crime”. facepalm

josephcsible 5y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fox_Butterfield#Criticism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fox_Butterfield#Criticism

JI00912 5y ago

> invariably all of them have figured out non-punitive methods of crime reduction that are far more effective than jail Well.. large segments of our populations commit very little crime. But when crime is committed, the police and the justice system are useless. Convicted for the 350th burglary? They'll be let out again and maybe be back tomorrow, if the prosecutor even bothers prosecuting them since it's pointless. So DO look at us for crime prevention but NOT for managing crime when it happens.

berryjerry 5y ago
Personally I think there should be escalating punishments for crimes to avoid the "350th burglary" and I thought often history was taken into account but I don't know California or San Francisco's laws. So, first time caught shoplifting should be a fine, second should be community service, third some jail, fourth could be more jail, etc. That doesn't really address the danger involved in actually catching a shoplifter. You really just need more police or a way to recognize shoplifters (facial recognition?) at that point so that regular individuals don't have to become enforcers of the laws. It seems most of the tools that could be most effective are being banned or defunded in certain areas of the US. There should be ways to account for false positives, such as confirming a facial recognition software's results, that the person actually was in the area etc.

wesapien 5y ago

It's not the same because the culture is different.