5 ms·

Absolutely. Considering how long it took CDC and WHO to even acknowledge airborne transmission, even though the Chinese were very clear about it from very early

Absolutely. Considering how long it took CDC and WHO to even acknowledge airborne transmission, even though the Chinese were very clear about it from very early on. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/opinion/coronavirus-airborne-transmission.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/opinion/coronavirus-airbo...

alvah 5y ago
"even though the Chinese were very clear about it from very early on" I'm not sure this adds as much credibility as you seem to think. See (for example) - propaganda videos of people dropping dead in the street in Wuhan in early 2020.
- simpleguitar 5y ago
  Not sure what you're getting at. Preprint for this paper was out in Apr 2020: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32240078/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32240078/
  - nostrebored 5y ago
    Chinese health authorities not being a credible source of information throughout the pandemic?
    - simpleguitar 5y ago
      I'm not defending what they did, but let's make the facts clear. Initially (december?) they denied there was human-human transmission, and tried to down play magnitude of the virus. And once Wuhan was locked down, they down played how harsh it was, cut out the media (with the excuse of not causing panic). But even before Wuhan locked down, they allowed the release of the virus sequence (Jan 2020), their mitigation efforts in Wuhan (the field hospitals built there, the thousands of doctors sent there, the treatment strategy the doctors used, what worked, what didn't), the air borne transmission, treatment methods, and all of that. I was following this pretty closely, and the Chinese released very relevant information very early on. But when Italy got hit, it was like they didn't even bother listening to anything the Chinese already put out. The Italians re-discovered pronation, low oxygen flow intubation, anti blood clot medication, etc. Blaming the Chinese health authorities for not being credible is fine. But simply discounting everything they said is stupid. And completely ignoring their information even with mounting other evidence because "The Chinese are not credible", is doubly stupid. It's like the world put on stupid blinders, and just wished that the Chinese were lying and Covid would just disappear magically.
      - alvah 5y ago
        I don't suggest ignoring everything the Chinese health authorities said, that would be ridiculous. "Take everything China allows to be released to the West with a pinch of salt" is a sensible starting point though - you can use it as an input, but you have to be more skeptical of information fed to you by a communist-controlled authority than you would otherwise be, and you certainly don't add credibility by pointing out "the Chinese authorities said so".
        simpleguitar 5y ago
        My point is that even the "untrustable Chinese" were saying airborne transmission at the outset. And other evidence that they were right came pouring in from other countries like Korea, Hong Kong, Italy, etc right from the start. The CDC and WHO's decision to deny airborne transmission 14 months into the pandemic is purely idiotic. So who do I trust now? Independent Scientists. Basically Twitter, ffs.
- fighterpilot 5y ago
  True, but there was many other reasons to think masks would work. Its demonstrated efficacy in other coronaviruses and the cultural evolution of dense Asian countries to use masks as a way to combat virus transmission. The WHO and CDC behaved liked total idiots, setting the burden of proof way too high for what should've been a pragmatic, common sense decision made with some uncertainty. Not atypical of bureaucrats to miss such a layup.
  - in_cahoots 5y ago
    I don’t think they were total idiots, at least not from the angle you’re pointing out. The CDC knew masks were effective, but they wanted to make sure masks were reserved for healthcare workers. Remember at the time nurses were given a single mask to use for multiple days, and many hospitals had drives to collect donated masks. The CDC lied to prevent the general public from making the situation worse. Was it worth the long-term loss of credibility? It’s easy to say no, but we’ll never know the counterfactual. For all we know some other issue would have become as politicized as masks were. To me, this was a glaring reminder that public health deals with more than cold hard science. It’s about ensuring public health first and foremost, given the realities on the ground. See harm reduction as another example. Again, I’m not sure they made the right call here. But it wasn’t due to ignorance.
    - fighterpilot 5y ago
      It's hard to attribute the same charity to the WHO. They were dragged kicking and screaming to mask recommendation and this happened many, many months into the pandemic, well after any concerns of mask shortages were alleviated. I see your point about the CDC. But they should've recommended home made masks. Other countries did that. They messed up big time. It's impossible to know the counterfactual with perfect confidence, but we can make a sound judgement given what we know.
- slver 5y ago
  Why on Earth are you calling them “propaganda” videos, when China was trying to downplay the pandemic at the time? See, this is one big reason we’re collectively dumb. Everyone and their big conspiracy theories.
  - alvah 5y ago
    There hasn't been a single case reported in the West, of anyone dying instantly in the street of COVID-19. Ergo, videos filmed within China, allowed by the authorities to be viewed outside China, purporting to show this scenario, are the very definition of propaganda.
    - slver 5y ago
      We also saw videos of sick people left to die in Chinese hospitals from their own phone recordings. Is that also propaganda? And no, a video of something that isn’t what we thought it is, is not the definition of propaganda. Propaganda has a goal. This video doesn’t match a single goal China has. If it does name it.
      - alvah 5y ago
        I will politely decline your invitation to name any way the CCP has benefited from the last 14 months of havoc in the West. Feel free to carry on shilling for them.
        dang 5y ago
        Accusing others like this is not allowed on HN, and we ban accounts that do it, so please don't. "Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comment&storyText=false&prefix=true&page=0&query=by:dang%20astroturf https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme...

alvah 5y ago

"even though the Chinese were very clear about it from very early on" I'm not sure this adds as much credibility as you seem to think. See (for example) - propaganda videos of people dropping dead in the street in Wuhan in early 2020.

simpleguitar 5y ago
Not sure what you're getting at. Preprint for this paper was out in Apr 2020: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32240078/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32240078/
- nostrebored 5y ago
  Chinese health authorities not being a credible source of information throughout the pandemic?
  - simpleguitar 5y ago
    I'm not defending what they did, but let's make the facts clear. Initially (december?) they denied there was human-human transmission, and tried to down play magnitude of the virus. And once Wuhan was locked down, they down played how harsh it was, cut out the media (with the excuse of not causing panic). But even before Wuhan locked down, they allowed the release of the virus sequence (Jan 2020), their mitigation efforts in Wuhan (the field hospitals built there, the thousands of doctors sent there, the treatment strategy the doctors used, what worked, what didn't), the air borne transmission, treatment methods, and all of that. I was following this pretty closely, and the Chinese released very relevant information very early on. But when Italy got hit, it was like they didn't even bother listening to anything the Chinese already put out. The Italians re-discovered pronation, low oxygen flow intubation, anti blood clot medication, etc. Blaming the Chinese health authorities for not being credible is fine. But simply discounting everything they said is stupid. And completely ignoring their information even with mounting other evidence because "The Chinese are not credible", is doubly stupid. It's like the world put on stupid blinders, and just wished that the Chinese were lying and Covid would just disappear magically.
    - alvah 5y ago
      I don't suggest ignoring everything the Chinese health authorities said, that would be ridiculous. "Take everything China allows to be released to the West with a pinch of salt" is a sensible starting point though - you can use it as an input, but you have to be more skeptical of information fed to you by a communist-controlled authority than you would otherwise be, and you certainly don't add credibility by pointing out "the Chinese authorities said so".
      - simpleguitar 5y ago
        My point is that even the "untrustable Chinese" were saying airborne transmission at the outset. And other evidence that they were right came pouring in from other countries like Korea, Hong Kong, Italy, etc right from the start. The CDC and WHO's decision to deny airborne transmission 14 months into the pandemic is purely idiotic. So who do I trust now? Independent Scientists. Basically Twitter, ffs.
fighterpilot 5y ago
True, but there was many other reasons to think masks would work. Its demonstrated efficacy in other coronaviruses and the cultural evolution of dense Asian countries to use masks as a way to combat virus transmission. The WHO and CDC behaved liked total idiots, setting the burden of proof way too high for what should've been a pragmatic, common sense decision made with some uncertainty. Not atypical of bureaucrats to miss such a layup.
- in_cahoots 5y ago
  I don’t think they were total idiots, at least not from the angle you’re pointing out. The CDC knew masks were effective, but they wanted to make sure masks were reserved for healthcare workers. Remember at the time nurses were given a single mask to use for multiple days, and many hospitals had drives to collect donated masks. The CDC lied to prevent the general public from making the situation worse. Was it worth the long-term loss of credibility? It’s easy to say no, but we’ll never know the counterfactual. For all we know some other issue would have become as politicized as masks were. To me, this was a glaring reminder that public health deals with more than cold hard science. It’s about ensuring public health first and foremost, given the realities on the ground. See harm reduction as another example. Again, I’m not sure they made the right call here. But it wasn’t due to ignorance.
  - fighterpilot 5y ago
    It's hard to attribute the same charity to the WHO. They were dragged kicking and screaming to mask recommendation and this happened many, many months into the pandemic, well after any concerns of mask shortages were alleviated. I see your point about the CDC. But they should've recommended home made masks. Other countries did that. They messed up big time. It's impossible to know the counterfactual with perfect confidence, but we can make a sound judgement given what we know.
slver 5y ago
Why on Earth are you calling them “propaganda” videos, when China was trying to downplay the pandemic at the time? See, this is one big reason we’re collectively dumb. Everyone and their big conspiracy theories.
- alvah 5y ago
  There hasn't been a single case reported in the West, of anyone dying instantly in the street of COVID-19. Ergo, videos filmed within China, allowed by the authorities to be viewed outside China, purporting to show this scenario, are the very definition of propaganda.
  - slver 5y ago
    We also saw videos of sick people left to die in Chinese hospitals from their own phone recordings. Is that also propaganda? And no, a video of something that isn’t what we thought it is, is not the definition of propaganda. Propaganda has a goal. This video doesn’t match a single goal China has. If it does name it.
    - alvah 5y ago
      I will politely decline your invitation to name any way the CCP has benefited from the last 14 months of havoc in the West. Feel free to carry on shilling for them.
      - dang 5y ago
        Accusing others like this is not allowed on HN, and we ban accounts that do it, so please don't. "Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comment&storyText=false&prefix=true&page=0&query=by:dang%20astroturf https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme...