7 ms·

> On the other hand, "observational data show that regions or facilities with a higher percentage of the population wearing masks have better control of the cor

> On the other hand, "observational data show that regions or facilities with a higher percentage of the population wearing masks have better control of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (7–9)." So how to explain these contrasting results and apparent inconsistencies? My hypothesis regarding surgical mask prevalence and how it correlates with better virus control: People who wear masks--however effective they may be--also behave in other ways to limit the spread. They minimize time spent in public indoor spaces, they keep distance from other people, they're more likely to self-quarantine if a family member is sick, etc. The mask-wearing prevalence is a proxy for how serious the wearer takes Covid as a threat.

jasonlaramburu 5y ago
It’s worth also considering the case of ski helmets. Since these have became common on the slopes head trauma has actually increased because wearers take more risks.
- swader999 5y ago
  Probably related to the uptake in snow boarding.
- lostlogin 5y ago
  I had previously read that WW1 saw an increase in head injuries when helmets were used, due to victims surviving previously fatal injuries. However on searching it doesn't seem that clear-cut.
- AuryGlenz 5y ago
  I definitely noticed a change in behavior at stores and at weddings I photographed once the mask mandate happened. Before it happened? Small backyard ceremonies with just families. In stores people straight up avoided being close to others. After? Normal, but with masks.
- function_seven 5y ago
  Yeah, or the idea that maybe helmets in gridiron football increase CTE. I see the possibility, but my own anecdotal experience with mask wearers and non-wearers jives with the other correlation: that non-wearers generally didn’t take the pandemic seriously. The people that I know who shunned masks also ignored the COVID threat in other ways: Large gatherings, vacations to another state to escape lockdown restrictions, etc. Whereas my religiously-masked friends were basically isolated last year. And because I have several such anecdotes, I now have data :)
  - ixacto 5y ago
    I wore a mask indoors. Then I got the vaccine. COVID is effectively over, unless we need booster shots this fall. But feel free to wear a mask as much as you want, at this point it is effectively a security blanket though.
    - function_seven 5y ago
      Same here. The only time I'm wearing a mask now is when the establishment asks me to. Otherwise, I'm back to normal. Pre-vaccination, I was an indoor-only wearer.
- kelnos 5y ago
  Or is it that people are taking the same amount of risks, but accidents that used to cause death are now "merely" causing head trauma? (I don't know either way, just curious to know if this angle has been investigated.)
  - astrange 5y ago
    This is probably more likely. Risk compensation (people behaving more dangerously when they have more safeguards) basically doesn't happen - it's an excuse to not use the safeguards. When seatbelts were introduced lots of people were opposed because it encouraged driving, or because they wanted the chance to just roll out of the car if it was about to crash.
- rcxdude 5y ago
  This is not clear cut: see this review which concludes that this is not the case (helmets neither increase injuries nor risky behaviour). In general the idea of risk compensation is frequently brought up in these cases, and while it may seem intuitive, it usually does not appear in the data. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3989528/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3989528/
mattm 5y ago
"Some people with swine flu travelled on a plane from New York to China, and many fellow passengers got infected. Some researchers looked at whether passengers who wore masks throughout the flight stayed healthier. The answer was very much yes. They were able to track down 9 people who got sick on the flight and 32 who didn’t. 0% of the sick passengers wore masks, compared to 47% of the healthy passengers. Another way to look at that is that 0% of mask-wearers got sick, but 35% of non-wearers did." https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-t... At the beginning of the pandemic I was skeptical about the effectiveness of masks and this article is what convinced me that there is some benefit.
- solarengineer 5y ago
  What is astounding to a lot of us in South East Asia is the reluctance of the West in learning from our lessons. How many deaths and personal trauma experiences do people in general need to go through in order to learn from others?
  - ddingus 5y ago
    There is a strong culture of individuality, and that is coupled with an extreme reluctance to just do what we're told, and what I mean by that is more about trust than Authority. Trust is low here, which is problematic for a scenario like this. Many of us did learn those lessons. For me personally when this all began, checking out what the world is doing seemed the natural thing to do. The US is also very insular, in that a smaller percentage of people travel abroad than is typical for many Western Nations. And a small percentage of people seek news produced outside the nation too. Both of those stats are better elsewhere in the West, so make of that what you will.
    - kelnos 5y ago
      I think it goes further than individuality, though. There's a pervasive selfishness that seems to run through our (American) culture. Many who do believe that COVID is a threat to others (say, to older people, or to immuno-compromised people) but do not believe that they themselves are in much danger will decide not to wear a mask because they don't think it matters to them if they do or not. This is the thing that makes me saddest. It just seems like people in the US are unwilling to endure even a minor inconvenience if it will help someone else but not do anything for themselves.
hartator 5y ago
> The mask-wearing prevalence is a proxy for how serious the wearer takes Covid as a threat. But that’s the issue. Science is about finding the truth, not to map itself to trigger some desired social behaviors.
- function_seven 5y ago
  I fully agree with you. I was just trying to resolve the apparent incongruity between the results in the controlled setting vs the observational results. There’s a (social) scientific explanation for that as well.
SpaceNinja 5y ago
"proxy for how serious the wearer takes Covid as a threat." I would suggest that this now law in some countries and that would be the reason for wearing facemasks.
jvvw 5y ago
There is also a question as to the extent to which the current rules send a signal to be careful or not. Anecdotally and highly subjectively, I felt like when schools were closed here in January, everybody started being more careful generally - as though closing schools went a strong message that it was time to be cautious again, more than just announcements about virus rates would have done.

jasonlaramburu 5y ago

It’s worth also considering the case of ski helmets. Since these have became common on the slopes head trauma has actually increased because wearers take more risks.

swader999 5y ago
Probably related to the uptake in snow boarding.
lostlogin 5y ago
I had previously read that WW1 saw an increase in head injuries when helmets were used, due to victims surviving previously fatal injuries. However on searching it doesn't seem that clear-cut.
AuryGlenz 5y ago
I definitely noticed a change in behavior at stores and at weddings I photographed once the mask mandate happened. Before it happened? Small backyard ceremonies with just families. In stores people straight up avoided being close to others. After? Normal, but with masks.
function_seven 5y ago
Yeah, or the idea that maybe helmets in gridiron football increase CTE. I see the possibility, but my own anecdotal experience with mask wearers and non-wearers jives with the other correlation: that non-wearers generally didn’t take the pandemic seriously. The people that I know who shunned masks also ignored the COVID threat in other ways: Large gatherings, vacations to another state to escape lockdown restrictions, etc. Whereas my religiously-masked friends were basically isolated last year. And because I have several such anecdotes, I now have data :)
- ixacto 5y ago
  I wore a mask indoors. Then I got the vaccine. COVID is effectively over, unless we need booster shots this fall. But feel free to wear a mask as much as you want, at this point it is effectively a security blanket though.
  - function_seven 5y ago
    Same here. The only time I'm wearing a mask now is when the establishment asks me to. Otherwise, I'm back to normal. Pre-vaccination, I was an indoor-only wearer.
kelnos 5y ago
Or is it that people are taking the same amount of risks, but accidents that used to cause death are now "merely" causing head trauma? (I don't know either way, just curious to know if this angle has been investigated.)
- astrange 5y ago
  This is probably more likely. Risk compensation (people behaving more dangerously when they have more safeguards) basically doesn't happen - it's an excuse to not use the safeguards. When seatbelts were introduced lots of people were opposed because it encouraged driving, or because they wanted the chance to just roll out of the car if it was about to crash.
rcxdude 5y ago
This is not clear cut: see this review which concludes that this is not the case (helmets neither increase injuries nor risky behaviour). In general the idea of risk compensation is frequently brought up in these cases, and while it may seem intuitive, it usually does not appear in the data. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3989528/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3989528/

mattm 5y ago

"Some people with swine flu travelled on a plane from New York to China, and many fellow passengers got infected. Some researchers looked at whether passengers who wore masks throughout the flight stayed healthier. The answer was very much yes. They were able to track down 9 people who got sick on the flight and 32 who didn’t. 0% of the sick passengers wore masks, compared to 47% of the healthy passengers. Another way to look at that is that 0% of mask-wearers got sick, but 35% of non-wearers did." https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-t... At the beginning of the pandemic I was skeptical about the effectiveness of masks and this article is what convinced me that there is some benefit.

solarengineer 5y ago
What is astounding to a lot of us in South East Asia is the reluctance of the West in learning from our lessons. How many deaths and personal trauma experiences do people in general need to go through in order to learn from others?
- ddingus 5y ago
  There is a strong culture of individuality, and that is coupled with an extreme reluctance to just do what we're told, and what I mean by that is more about trust than Authority. Trust is low here, which is problematic for a scenario like this. Many of us did learn those lessons. For me personally when this all began, checking out what the world is doing seemed the natural thing to do. The US is also very insular, in that a smaller percentage of people travel abroad than is typical for many Western Nations. And a small percentage of people seek news produced outside the nation too. Both of those stats are better elsewhere in the West, so make of that what you will.
  - kelnos 5y ago
    I think it goes further than individuality, though. There's a pervasive selfishness that seems to run through our (American) culture. Many who do believe that COVID is a threat to others (say, to older people, or to immuno-compromised people) but do not believe that they themselves are in much danger will decide not to wear a mask because they don't think it matters to them if they do or not. This is the thing that makes me saddest. It just seems like people in the US are unwilling to endure even a minor inconvenience if it will help someone else but not do anything for themselves.

hartator 5y ago

> The mask-wearing prevalence is a proxy for how serious the wearer takes Covid as a threat. But that’s the issue. Science is about finding the truth, not to map itself to trigger some desired social behaviors.

function_seven 5y ago
I fully agree with you. I was just trying to resolve the apparent incongruity between the results in the controlled setting vs the observational results. There’s a (social) scientific explanation for that as well.

SpaceNinja 5y ago

"proxy for how serious the wearer takes Covid as a threat." I would suggest that this now law in some countries and that would be the reason for wearing facemasks.

jvvw 5y ago

There is also a question as to the extent to which the current rules send a signal to be careful or not. Anecdotally and highly subjectively, I felt like when schools were closed here in January, everybody started being more careful generally - as though closing schools went a strong message that it was time to be cautious again, more than just announcements about virus rates would have done.