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A Black Swan is an "unknown unknown", something you don't just lack understanding of, but don't expect or predict. The statistical interpretation of the term wa
by thisismyswamp 5y ago
A Black Swan is an "unknown unknown", something you don't just lack understanding of, but don't expect or predict. The statistical interpretation of the term was popularized by Nassim Taleb in the book of the same name: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/242472.The_Black_Swan https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/242472.The_Black_Swan
- amelius 5y agoWhat is the relevance of the term here?
- mohanmcgeek 5y agoThat it's in the title? GP is pointing out that it's being used incorrectly
- agilob 5y agoBlack Swan event is always unexpected, unpredictable, with no prior recorded history of such event, so no one could prepare for such event. It's always catastrophic as a system couldn't be possibly ready for it.
- dkarl 5y agoThis subthread is an illustration of the HN tendency to seize on whatever aspect of the article we think we can sound smart about, which, despite seemingly being an isolated comment that the scientist did not clarify or expand on at all, the journalist cleverly elevated to the headline.
- arkitaip 5y agoYou've just summarized the beauty that is n-gate.
- thisismyswamp 5y agoVery good observation
- cleansy 5y agoHowever, in this article it’s referred to as an actual black swan, not the concept in the book.
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- wernercd 5y ago"actual black swan, not the concept" 2nd paragraph of article, first sentence: "This defect is like a black swan—something special going on that isn't typical," So how is this an actual black swan - a bird with wings... and not a "black swan" - an unkown unknown (as described eslewhere)?
- yosito 5y agoAnd what is "soft matter"?
- abledon 5y agofrom article.... "Materials can be broadly classified as hard or soft matter. Hard materials, like metal alloys and ceramics, generally have a very regular and symmetric arrangement of atoms. Further, in hard matter, ordered groups of atoms arrange themselves into nanoscopic building blocks, called unit cells. Typically, these unit cells are comprised of only a few atoms and stack together to form the periodic crystal. Soft matter can also form crystals consisting of unit cells, but now the periodic pattern is not at the atomic level; it occurs at a much larger scale from assemblies of large molecules."
- jtbayly 5y agoApparently swans are. I’d guess most birds, especially geese, since their feathers make nice pillows.
- wernercd 5y agoThis has nothing to do with black swans, the birds... this has to do with unexpected results that are easy to explain in hindsight after the truth is known. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory "Taleb's "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.[2]:xxi" This discovery (unexpected behavior of matter) seems like it'll have a surprising and large magnitude.
- meepmorp 5y agoThe way they use the phrase here has nothing to do with Black swan theory or Taleb's book. It just means something very rare, and that's been the common meaning of the phrase in English for hundreds of years. It comes from Latin.
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- tmptmp123 5y agoThe term black swan as it appears on the book actually comes from a philosopher. I think it is from David Hume. Does anyone here on HN knows? Its basically the concept in science that the connection between cause and effect is an ilusion. I remember reading the thought experiment from a philosopher in that context. Since google stopped working finding these things has proven more difficult.
- meepmorp 5y agoA black swan is not "an unknown unknown." It's something very rare, possibly non-existent - the phrase has been part of the English language for centuries (from Latin), and is clearly not being used in reference to Taleb's book: > "This defect is like a black swan—something special going on that isn't typical," said Dr. Edwin Thomas, professor in the Department of Materials Science and Engineering
- devy 5y agoYep. Even though related but the phrase "black swan" is different from the "Black Swan Theory". The wikipedia entry[1] has the explanation of both. And the usage by Dr. Thomas certain refers to the phrase not the theory. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
- peheje 5y agoRather "Outside context problem"?
- SAI_Peregrinus 5y agoRelated, but that's a subset of "black swan". Not every "black swan" is a problem.
- rozab 5y agoThe meaning of the phrase changed completely once black swans were actually discovered in Australia.
- waheoo 5y agoDid it though?
- blacksmith_tb 5y agoIsn't that the point? Before English-speakers had seen one, 'black swan' was a nonsense impossibility, like water flowing uphill. After Brits saw them in Australia, the phrase changed from 'total impossibility' to 'extremely unlikely but what do you know, actually true!'
- harshbutfair 5y agoI still think it's a strange phrase. To me a black swan is a normal swan.
- robbiep 5y agoBut until Europeans had come to Australia, no Europeans had ever seen a black swan
- inopinatus 5y agoGrey geese though.
- domano 5y agoSo if i see a black swan here in germany, this means it is a a descendant of an australian swan?
- robbiep 5y agoapparently so [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_emblems_and_popular_culture#European_myth_and_metaphor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_emblems_and_popular...
- teachingassist 5y agoI'm not sure I agree with anything you have said here. "Black Swan" was in use before Taleb's book, at a similar frequency as it is today (Google Trends scores 2 vs 3, where 100 is when the book was released). "Black swan" as a phrase dates at least to Roman times, often referring to the philosophical idea that the observation of a single black swan would prove their existence. (I've heard 'black sheep' used for this as well, although that has other more popular meanings). The interesting part is that this did come to pass, for black swans: which are only native to Australia. So, in my mind, it refers to something which is conceivable, but not believed to exist and not (yet) observed.
- brobdingnagians 5y agoThe Roman writer Juvenal is the origin of the phrase [1]. Neat to see pictures of them. [2] And humbling to think it took almost two thousand years for them to find out that the proverbial phrase was wrong. [1] https://www.etymonline.com/word/black%20swan https://www.etymonline.com/word/black%20swan [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan
- gumby 5y ago> "Black Swan" was in use before Taleb's book In fact he likely used the term for his title because it's a well-known metaphor.
- booleandilemma 5y agoBlack swan is one of those terms no one can quite seem to agree on and people correct others corrections. Kind of like np-completeness.