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It will probably hit them (as well as other Asian countries like South Korea) harder because they have not had the same levels of immigration to buffer the demo

by ayngg 5y ago

It will probably hit them (as well as other Asian countries like South Korea) harder because they have not had the same levels of immigration to buffer the demographic change like in the west. Overall things have just gotten increasingly uncertain and insecure throughout the developed world, retirement at 65 is probably a pipe dream for most millennials.

ido 5y ago
Isn't increasing automation supposed to fix that? Having machines do more and more of the work for us.
- n_ary 5y ago
  > Having machines do more and more of the work for us. Automation often does not reduce the requirement for labor, it only shifts the work and cost somewhere else.
  - FredPret 5y ago
    Sometimes, “somewhere else” is upward on the value chain and is thus an improvement. Former plowshare-pullers become horse-steerers become tractor drivers. Each new invention does have it’s attendant complications, but they tend to be nicer than the basic, first job. Ie, I’d rather be a tractor mechanic than a plowshare puller. I’m glossing over generations of social upheaval and re-skilling here, but that’s the pattern so far.
- ayngg 5y ago
  Maybe, but machines also don't really pay taxes or into social security as well, at least not yet.
- orangepanda 5y ago
  As automation increases, workforce transitions to more service-oriented professions that are more difficult to automate
  - kwere 5y ago
    thats not a given, especially for low skill paying jobs
    - bumby 5y ago
      I'd extend that to many high-paying jobs as well. Professions that are researched-based, like law, may be easily displaced by automation. Currently, my thought is that skilled trades are the least likely to be displaced, especially in maintenance, non-routine roles. There's currently a decent amount of research to automate the routine parts, though, like new construction.
- bluGill 5y ago
  Most people trade automation for a better lifestyle. In 600 even though between then and now we went from 95% of females needing to spend 14 hours per DAY spinning raw material into thread to machines automating all that work. In 600 95% males spent their time farming. Now we have machines to make thread and so very few females even know how to make thread and most that do it is just something for fun. We have machines to farm and so only a tiny number of people are farmers. Despite all that there is still a lot of work to do. There wouldn't have to be, most of the work being done is something we could skip if we decided to let science/society stagnate at current levels. Most people have decided they want more.
- tjpnz 5y ago
  Japan seems to have abandoned that strategy in favour of attracting migrant workers from SE Asia. At least that's the impression I got when I last visited the Tokyo Regional Immigration Bureau. Makes sense given how reliant the country still is on manual labour. They even hire people to walk you past roadworks when a physical sign alone would do just fine.

by ayngg 5y ago

ido 5y ago

Isn't increasing automation supposed to fix that? Having machines do more and more of the work for us.

n_ary 5y ago
> Having machines do more and more of the work for us. Automation often does not reduce the requirement for labor, it only shifts the work and cost somewhere else.
- FredPret 5y ago
  Sometimes, “somewhere else” is upward on the value chain and is thus an improvement. Former plowshare-pullers become horse-steerers become tractor drivers. Each new invention does have it’s attendant complications, but they tend to be nicer than the basic, first job. Ie, I’d rather be a tractor mechanic than a plowshare puller. I’m glossing over generations of social upheaval and re-skilling here, but that’s the pattern so far.
ayngg 5y ago
Maybe, but machines also don't really pay taxes or into social security as well, at least not yet.
orangepanda 5y ago
As automation increases, workforce transitions to more service-oriented professions that are more difficult to automate
- kwere 5y ago
  thats not a given, especially for low skill paying jobs
  - bumby 5y ago
    I'd extend that to many high-paying jobs as well. Professions that are researched-based, like law, may be easily displaced by automation. Currently, my thought is that skilled trades are the least likely to be displaced, especially in maintenance, non-routine roles. There's currently a decent amount of research to automate the routine parts, though, like new construction.
bluGill 5y ago
Most people trade automation for a better lifestyle. In 600 even though between then and now we went from 95% of females needing to spend 14 hours per DAY spinning raw material into thread to machines automating all that work. In 600 95% males spent their time farming. Now we have machines to make thread and so very few females even know how to make thread and most that do it is just something for fun. We have machines to farm and so only a tiny number of people are farmers. Despite all that there is still a lot of work to do. There wouldn't have to be, most of the work being done is something we could skip if we decided to let science/society stagnate at current levels. Most people have decided they want more.
tjpnz 5y ago
Japan seems to have abandoned that strategy in favour of attracting migrant workers from SE Asia. At least that's the impression I got when I last visited the Tokyo Regional Immigration Bureau. Makes sense given how reliant the country still is on manual labour. They even hire people to walk you past roadworks when a physical sign alone would do just fine.