Of course. But if we have reason to expect _many_, then betting that we're the first is a terrible bet. If we conclude for some reason that we are the first, w

Of course. But if we have reason to expect _many_, then betting that we're the first is a terrible bet. If we conclude for some reason that we are the first, with enough evidence, sure, like you say someone has to be first. But with so little data, the priors for "are we first or are we just missing the others" just have to be tilted heavily away from "we're first".