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If we're the first, that also requires just about as much explanation really. There are how many galaxies, and how many systems per galaxy, and how many planets
by kadoban 5y ago
If we're the first, that also requires just about as much explanation really. There are how many galaxies, and how many systems per galaxy, and how many planets per galaxy? If the chance of life per planet is anything more than on the order of 1/trillion, laws of big numbers suggest we just _can't_ be the first or only.
None of this is any kind of _hard_ proof of course, it's just attempting to reason through what we expect without having enough data to prove either way.
- tsimionescu 5y agoAgain, some civilization will be the first, that is a certainty. Now, you may ask 'why did civilization only arise X billion years in the universe' s history' perhaps, but not 'why are we the first and not someone else' (assuming we were, which I have no opinion on).
- kadoban 5y agoOf course. But if we have reason to expect _many_, then betting that we're the first is a terrible bet. If we conclude for some reason that we are the first, with enough evidence, sure, like you say someone has to be first. But with so little data, the priors for "are we first or are we just missing the others" just have to be tilted heavily away from "we're first".