6 ms·

I don’t have anything to add except that California is huge and very unevenly applied “lockdown” - there are many towns a where businesses remained open or reop

I don’t have anything to add except that California is huge and very unevenly applied “lockdown” - there are many towns a where businesses remained open or reopened frequently, but the big cities did have large shelter in place efforts. It would be interesting to compare on the municipal level if the data was that granular.

dubyah 5y ago
Low income / essential workers & overcrowded homes are a far more significant factor that often go unmentioned when people try to compare the outcomes between state & municipal public health interventions. This was observed well before the winter surge. https://calmatters.org/projects/overcrowded-housing-california-coronavirus-essential-worker/ https://calmatters.org/projects/overcrowded-housing-californ... How do you isolate when there's more members than actual rooms in the home & only one one restroom?
shoguning 5y ago
According to a study in PNAS, shelter-in-place policies in the US did not work: https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2019706118 https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2019706118 Another study in Eur J Clin Inv had similar findings comparing countries: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484 COVID went wild basically everywhere. There were a few strong exceptions: China (apparently), Australia, New Zealand and some others. What these had in common was very strict police enforcement, which led to some dramatic scenes like people getting welded into their houses in China, or houses in Australia getting broken into by police on suspicion of too many people gathering. In my _opinion_, lockdowns didn't work elsewhere because most cases are not from casual public transmission in places like stores, restaurants etc. Rather, events like kickbacks, dinner parties, and practices like in-home workers (nannies, cleaners etc) continued throughout the pandemic, or resumed shortly after the original March 2020 shockwave. While strident police enforcement of physical distancing could eliminate cases, and seemed to in a few places, the half measures used by most of the world did little-to-nothing positive while being an economic and cultural disaster. Personally, I never caught COVID and rarely socialized during the pandemic. All the cases I heard of stemmed from the kind of thing I mention above: private dinner parties, nannies and so forth, rather than casual public transmission. You, or any individual may have taken social distancing seriously but it's clear many or most did not, including people on both political "sides", up to and including governors, members of congress etc.
- nimbleal 5y ago
  The strictness of the enforcement in China has been overstated in the media. Strict, but not that strict. Source: here during the Chinese lockdown, have compared notes with those in other cities.
- greggman3 5y ago
  Here in Japan they've never really had lockdown. Restaurants have remained open the entire time, just asked to close at 8pm. I could/can walk by them at 7pm and see them full of people talking and eating without masks. I was invited by Japanese friends the entire time (didn't go) and would see them posting pictures of their restaurant dinner gatherings on Facebook. Further, as a comparison, Tokyo Metro has 38 million people, California has 38 million people. Tokyo Metro has ~6500 people per square mile, California has 240 per square mile. Tokyo Metro had and still has people commuting in very crowded trains every weekday. California mostly people drive cars. California closed restaurants. Tokyo Metro never closed restaurants. Yes, Tokyo is going through a "spike" right now but compared to California it's still tiny. Compare Tokyo Metro's current "spike" (~2k people per day) with any of California's spikes at 40k per day, 20x more. Some people will claim testing but that doesn't fit the facts either. Deaths from COVID in Tokyo Metro. California 62k death, Tokyo Metro, 2k dead. And, if you believe the attribution of death by COVID is bad then all you have to do is look at the death rate from all causes and see that Japan is doing much better than the USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat... I have no idea what Japan did right or got lucky with. Various speculations abound. Japanese don't shake hands, hug and kiss friends. Japanese may be commonly taking some medicine for unrelated things that happens to provide protection. Japanese might have more people with genetic immunity. Japanese mask compliance might be higher. Japanese aren't obese (I'm sure there's some other non-obese country they can be compared to). Japanese have a different diet (not sure what other countries have similar diets) I recognize that even with restaurants open it's possible just the various other factors are/were enough to keep R low enough.... I really have no clue. Personally I mostly stayed locked up. I live alone. Saw less than 1 person a month in person, usually an outdoor walk with masks on.
  - 5y ago
teej 5y ago
San Francisco had some of the heaviest lockdowns in the country, yet 100 miles east in Modesto the mayor actively defied the statewide lockdowns. California is a big state.
ngngngng 5y ago
The community I grew up in in California purposefully threw rallies and went out of their way to rebel against every single restriction. I keep this in mind when people say California's restrictions didn't work. Edit: This was in Orange County CA, not rural. And when I say "rallies" I'm talking thousands of people, not small gatherings.
- JPKab 5y ago
  Just in case anyone thinks this was confined to rural areas it was not. I had to go do business in LA specifically around Manhattan Beach and Inglewood, and the folks that live there were taking me to strip malls where all the businesses looked closed but we're all actually open. They just had their windows covered. I'm talking about an MMA gym next to a hair salon next to an Ethiopian restaurant.
  - labster 5y ago
    Yeah, the speakeasy gym thing was all across SoCal if not further. Probably given the low compliance we should have left gyms open officially.
- danenania 5y ago
  Still, the vast majority of cases in California have been in the metropolitan areas that have also had the strongest restrictions.
  - rualca 5y ago
    Assymptomatic carriers have been observed to carry the virus and spread it to those around them for periods that range between a few weeks up to a couple of months. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(21)00059-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7... All it takes is a single spreader moving from outside of the metro area to negate the effect of the lockdown, specially if a considerable portion of the population is quite militant in their refusal to follow even the most basic health and safety precautions.
  - 5y ago
chmod600 5y ago
The closing of schools in California (vs open in Florida since last fall) was a very distinct difference in both policy and actual behavior. It seems not to have had a dramatic effect on outcomes. At least in hindsight, the closing of schools might have been a huge mistake.
- briandear 5y ago
  It was a huge mistake in foresight as well. Many of us were highly vocal against school closings.
- auxym 5y ago
  Some canadian provinces are still closing down schools at the moment.
  - chmod600 5y ago
    Why? Sincere question. Is there science to back it up or is it just fear of making a wrong decision?
    - Spooky23 5y ago
      They have vaccine shortages. The issue is the teachers, not the kids.
      - chmod600 5y ago
        Are schools a major source of transmission for teachers and staff?
        Spooky23 5y ago
        Yes. Workplaces with lots of contact always are. In Nov-Feb, I was losing 40-60 employees a week to infection or quarantine. Mostly people in essential IT support positions My sons school was open most of the year, but shutdown for a month due to teacher quarantines.

dubyah 5y ago

Low income / essential workers & overcrowded homes are a far more significant factor that often go unmentioned when people try to compare the outcomes between state & municipal public health interventions. This was observed well before the winter surge. https://calmatters.org/projects/overcrowded-housing-california-coronavirus-essential-worker/ https://calmatters.org/projects/overcrowded-housing-californ... How do you isolate when there's more members than actual rooms in the home & only one one restroom?

shoguning 5y ago

According to a study in PNAS, shelter-in-place policies in the US did not work: https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2019706118 https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2019706118 Another study in Eur J Clin Inv had similar findings comparing countries: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484 COVID went wild basically everywhere. There were a few strong exceptions: China (apparently), Australia, New Zealand and some others. What these had in common was very strict police enforcement, which led to some dramatic scenes like people getting welded into their houses in China, or houses in Australia getting broken into by police on suspicion of too many people gathering. In my _opinion_, lockdowns didn't work elsewhere because most cases are not from casual public transmission in places like stores, restaurants etc. Rather, events like kickbacks, dinner parties, and practices like in-home workers (nannies, cleaners etc) continued throughout the pandemic, or resumed shortly after the original March 2020 shockwave. While strident police enforcement of physical distancing could eliminate cases, and seemed to in a few places, the half measures used by most of the world did little-to-nothing positive while being an economic and cultural disaster. Personally, I never caught COVID and rarely socialized during the pandemic. All the cases I heard of stemmed from the kind of thing I mention above: private dinner parties, nannies and so forth, rather than casual public transmission. You, or any individual may have taken social distancing seriously but it's clear many or most did not, including people on both political "sides", up to and including governors, members of congress etc.

nimbleal 5y ago
The strictness of the enforcement in China has been overstated in the media. Strict, but not that strict. Source: here during the Chinese lockdown, have compared notes with those in other cities.
greggman3 5y ago
Here in Japan they've never really had lockdown. Restaurants have remained open the entire time, just asked to close at 8pm. I could/can walk by them at 7pm and see them full of people talking and eating without masks. I was invited by Japanese friends the entire time (didn't go) and would see them posting pictures of their restaurant dinner gatherings on Facebook. Further, as a comparison, Tokyo Metro has 38 million people, California has 38 million people. Tokyo Metro has ~6500 people per square mile, California has 240 per square mile. Tokyo Metro had and still has people commuting in very crowded trains every weekday. California mostly people drive cars. California closed restaurants. Tokyo Metro never closed restaurants. Yes, Tokyo is going through a "spike" right now but compared to California it's still tiny. Compare Tokyo Metro's current "spike" (~2k people per day) with any of California's spikes at 40k per day, 20x more. Some people will claim testing but that doesn't fit the facts either. Deaths from COVID in Tokyo Metro. California 62k death, Tokyo Metro, 2k dead. And, if you believe the attribution of death by COVID is bad then all you have to do is look at the death rate from all causes and see that Japan is doing much better than the USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat... I have no idea what Japan did right or got lucky with. Various speculations abound. Japanese don't shake hands, hug and kiss friends. Japanese may be commonly taking some medicine for unrelated things that happens to provide protection. Japanese might have more people with genetic immunity. Japanese mask compliance might be higher. Japanese aren't obese (I'm sure there's some other non-obese country they can be compared to). Japanese have a different diet (not sure what other countries have similar diets) I recognize that even with restaurants open it's possible just the various other factors are/were enough to keep R low enough.... I really have no clue. Personally I mostly stayed locked up. I live alone. Saw less than 1 person a month in person, usually an outdoor walk with masks on.
- 5y ago

teej 5y ago

San Francisco had some of the heaviest lockdowns in the country, yet 100 miles east in Modesto the mayor actively defied the statewide lockdowns. California is a big state.

ngngngng 5y ago

The community I grew up in in California purposefully threw rallies and went out of their way to rebel against every single restriction. I keep this in mind when people say California's restrictions didn't work. Edit: This was in Orange County CA, not rural. And when I say "rallies" I'm talking thousands of people, not small gatherings.

JPKab 5y ago
Just in case anyone thinks this was confined to rural areas it was not. I had to go do business in LA specifically around Manhattan Beach and Inglewood, and the folks that live there were taking me to strip malls where all the businesses looked closed but we're all actually open. They just had their windows covered. I'm talking about an MMA gym next to a hair salon next to an Ethiopian restaurant.
- labster 5y ago
  Yeah, the speakeasy gym thing was all across SoCal if not further. Probably given the low compliance we should have left gyms open officially.
danenania 5y ago
Still, the vast majority of cases in California have been in the metropolitan areas that have also had the strongest restrictions.
- rualca 5y ago
  Assymptomatic carriers have been observed to carry the virus and spread it to those around them for periods that range between a few weeks up to a couple of months. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(21)00059-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7... All it takes is a single spreader moving from outside of the metro area to negate the effect of the lockdown, specially if a considerable portion of the population is quite militant in their refusal to follow even the most basic health and safety precautions.
- 5y ago

chmod600 5y ago

The closing of schools in California (vs open in Florida since last fall) was a very distinct difference in both policy and actual behavior. It seems not to have had a dramatic effect on outcomes. At least in hindsight, the closing of schools might have been a huge mistake.

briandear 5y ago
It was a huge mistake in foresight as well. Many of us were highly vocal against school closings.
auxym 5y ago
Some canadian provinces are still closing down schools at the moment.
- chmod600 5y ago
  Why? Sincere question. Is there science to back it up or is it just fear of making a wrong decision?
  - Spooky23 5y ago
    They have vaccine shortages. The issue is the teachers, not the kids.
    - chmod600 5y ago
      Are schools a major source of transmission for teachers and staff?
      - Spooky23 5y ago
        Yes. Workplaces with lots of contact always are. In Nov-Feb, I was losing 40-60 employees a week to infection or quarantine. Mostly people in essential IT support positions My sons school was open most of the year, but shutdown for a month due to teacher quarantines.