8 ms·

I've been thinking about what would happen if there's an actual military crisis between China and Taiwan. I wonder if the United States would allow (and aid wit

by xenihn 5y ago

I've been thinking about what would happen if there's an actual military crisis between China and Taiwan. I wonder if the United States would allow (and aid with) unlimited immigration from Taiwan for educated specialists, in an attempt to capture/retain as much skills and knowledge as possible.

greatgoat420 5y ago
It has been done in the past, Taiwan is a special topic for the US, I don't know that they would let it get to that point without intervening either diplomatically or militarily.
- xenihn 5y ago
  Right, I'm just thinking that long-term military intervention to prevent capture/annexation of Taiwan is completely impossible, but short-term intervention meant to extract as many Taiwanese as possible prior to inevitable capitulation is very much an option.
  - greatgoat420 5y ago
    > I'm just thinking that long-term military intervention to prevent capture/annexation of Taiwan is completely impossible. You mean by China? I would certainly agree. Even with most countries not acknowledging Taiwan nationhood I would expect a strong international reaction to any military action by China due to Taiwan's special place in international technology exports.
  - dillondoyle 5y ago
    Why do you think this? I disagree, but am of the personal opinion that our advantage shrinks each year we don't seriously confront CCP.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Long term military intervention to prevent capture is completely possible if we're willing to pay the price. Weather and geography alone would make an amphibious invasion quite difficult. But China could easily wreck Taiwan's infrastructure and industry without invading.
    - edrxty 5y ago
      This^ Not only is it entirely possible to prevent Chinese capture but it's arguably possible for Taiwan to achieve this on their own with minimal to no US intervention. This will likely change in the future, but for the next decade their sovereignty is relatively assured. To say amphibious invasions are difficult is itself a massive understatement. Taiwan is armed to the teeth and and has incredibly hostile terrain all along its coasts effectively making any attempt on the area a guaranteed bloodbath.
echelon 5y ago
The US should invite Taiwan to become the 50-nth state. Perhaps several states, to give them more Senate votes. Numerous polls of the Taiwanese show that they would want to join the US if given the choice between independent statehood, joining the mainland, and joining the US. Plus, the US gets a nice permanent military base and gets to monitor all future Chinese submarine activity. If China attacks a US state, it would be like Yamamoto's "sleeping giant" moment. The US is trying to force China's hand while there is power asymmetry, and I can't think of a better checkmate move.
- ryanmarsh 5y ago
  I’ve never heard of this idea of granting Taiwan statehood. Is this actually a concept which has been seriously considered by public officials, ever?
  - anon84598 5y ago
    This is not an actual consideration in Taiwan -- the three options are "independence", "becoming a part of China" and "status quo". I think the mentioned preference for joining the US is more likely to come from a question like: "If Taiwan had to join a country, would you rather become a part of China or a part of the US?"
  - snskzbs 5y ago
    It isn't a thing, because its nuts outside of a “manifest destiny” wet dream Its the kinda nutty dream likely to start a war just by mentioning it.
- sircastor 5y ago
  I suspect we will never see additional states added to the USA. It’s a very politically divisive topic. I could see Taiwan becoming a US territory, but I doubt as a nation they would really like that. Either of these options woii I led probably be viewed by China as an act of war...
  - why_only_15 5y ago
refenestrator 5y ago
The TSMC chip bottleneck makes it a red line for the US and China knows that. They're patient, no need to do it in a time period when it guarantees maximum blowback.
- kragen 5y ago
  On the other hand, the US has been aggressively escalating the TSMC conflict with targeted attacks on the PRC's nuclear and supercomputing capabilities: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/04/us-adds-chinese-supercomputing-companies-to-export-blacklist/ https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/04/us-adds-chinese-... and semiconductor fabrication has been a key technology for several five-year plans. So the PRC's patience may run out sooner than you think.
  - refenestrator 5y ago
    Way better ROI to invest in more capabilities than engage in a zero-sum conflict which will inevitably trash the fabs in Taiwan anyways. Those trade restrictions just galvanize the Chinese to develop the capabilities themselves. And their system doesn't create a need for a big splashy foreign conflict to sell to the hogs for votes. They're more capable of making the smart play than we are.
    - kragen 5y ago
      Chinese reunification seems unlikely to trash the fabs in Taiwan.
jumelles 5y ago
In the event of a full-blown war the United States could just take possession and control of all foreign-owned fabs in the US.
- KirillPanov 5y ago
  In this age of cloud there is no way they will operate after losing contact with the mothership. TSMC will not allow them to be built any other way.
- kragen 5y ago
  The PRC is a nuclear power. In the event of a full-blown war there will be no fabs in the US, foreign-owned or otherwise.
  - giardini 5y ago
    Do you really believe China has enough nukes to take out most of the USA's infrastructure? Fab facilities would be waaaay down the list of targets. China's goal has been to maintain a nuclear deterrent (make it not worthwhile to strike China) rather than an offensive capability. if nukes flew then China would likely fragment into many separate countries: its centralized command structure would be destroyed and local politics would be the rule. Look at China's history to see its future after a nuclear war: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=china+how+many++kingdoms https://duckduckgo.com/?q=china+how+many++kingdoms
    - kragen 5y ago
      The PRC is estimated to have some 350 warheads, enough to land one or two on every US city of 100k population or more, killing about a third of the population. That's not nearly enough to prevent a retaliatory strike, but it seems like a fairly effective deterrent, and Intel's and TI's US fabs would definitely be out of commission, even if they weren't targets, until after the Mexican Army or whoever moved in to mop up the leftovers. It's hard to tell what you intend by your DDG link, but perhaps you are suggesting that, in the case of nuclear war, China will effectively revert to the Warring States Period of 2500 years ago. Is that really your intention? What would the US look like if it were returned to 2500 years ago, before the rise of the Anasazi and the Mound Builders, before the Olmec invented writing? A much more likely outcome than this sort of quasi time travel is that either a post-nuclear US or a post-nuclear China would look like nothing ever seen before in human history, more closely resembling the world in the immediate aftermath of the Chicxulub impact.
dillondoyle 5y ago
Legitimate question, is the UK actually allowing and if so is there significant migration out of Hong Kong? They said they would but reality is probably different. I would sure hope so with Taiwan we allow that, but I personally believe if we get to that point we've already lost and the world will look very very different. Unless we're talking about precautionary evacuations and even still doesn't send a lot of confidence. Seems like TSMC is a great first target too, unless MAD stands. When will China have enough internal capacity and knowledge? Before the US? I know the US has large old fabs like one in MN I think that are secure for government needs so minimally we have that + Intel. I'm a big China hawk though and strongly believe in more direction pressure now, let alone squirming away from our bluster & protection commitments if China becomes even more aggressive.
- helsinkiandrew 5y ago
  Thousands have applied and been granted the visa. But I don’t think there’s been a significant migration out of Hong Kong yet - presumably most people are holding it as a last resort/escape route if things deteriorate.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
magicsmoke 5y ago
That would honestly be the best option for the Taiwanese (other than magically fighting off an invasion with minimal civilian casualties of course). Taiwan only exists because the US stepped in front of Communist China in the 1950s. It wasn't even democratic at the time, but became democratic with US support. But the US essentially birthed a democratic nation on land disputed by a massive neighbor for its own geopolitical goals. In an alternate universe without the US intervention, would the Taiwanese people of that universe even have a distinct identity to agonize over? If the US raised generations of democracy supporters in harms way, doesn't it have a responsibility to take them out of harms way if it cannot defend Taiwan in the future? The Taiwanese may not have their island, but they'll still have their democracy and lives in the country that is arguably singlehandedly responsible for their existence.

by xenihn 5y ago

greatgoat420 5y ago

It has been done in the past, Taiwan is a special topic for the US, I don't know that they would let it get to that point without intervening either diplomatically or militarily.

xenihn 5y ago
Right, I'm just thinking that long-term military intervention to prevent capture/annexation of Taiwan is completely impossible, but short-term intervention meant to extract as many Taiwanese as possible prior to inevitable capitulation is very much an option.
- greatgoat420 5y ago
  > I'm just thinking that long-term military intervention to prevent capture/annexation of Taiwan is completely impossible. You mean by China? I would certainly agree. Even with most countries not acknowledging Taiwan nationhood I would expect a strong international reaction to any military action by China due to Taiwan's special place in international technology exports.
- dillondoyle 5y ago
  Why do you think this? I disagree, but am of the personal opinion that our advantage shrinks each year we don't seriously confront CCP.
- nradov 5y ago
  Long term military intervention to prevent capture is completely possible if we're willing to pay the price. Weather and geography alone would make an amphibious invasion quite difficult. But China could easily wreck Taiwan's infrastructure and industry without invading.
  - edrxty 5y ago
    This^ Not only is it entirely possible to prevent Chinese capture but it's arguably possible for Taiwan to achieve this on their own with minimal to no US intervention. This will likely change in the future, but for the next decade their sovereignty is relatively assured. To say amphibious invasions are difficult is itself a massive understatement. Taiwan is armed to the teeth and and has incredibly hostile terrain all along its coasts effectively making any attempt on the area a guaranteed bloodbath.

echelon 5y ago

The US should invite Taiwan to become the 50-nth state. Perhaps several states, to give them more Senate votes. Numerous polls of the Taiwanese show that they would want to join the US if given the choice between independent statehood, joining the mainland, and joining the US. Plus, the US gets a nice permanent military base and gets to monitor all future Chinese submarine activity. If China attacks a US state, it would be like Yamamoto's "sleeping giant" moment. The US is trying to force China's hand while there is power asymmetry, and I can't think of a better checkmate move.

ryanmarsh 5y ago
I’ve never heard of this idea of granting Taiwan statehood. Is this actually a concept which has been seriously considered by public officials, ever?
- anon84598 5y ago
  This is not an actual consideration in Taiwan -- the three options are "independence", "becoming a part of China" and "status quo". I think the mentioned preference for joining the US is more likely to come from a question like: "If Taiwan had to join a country, would you rather become a part of China or a part of the US?"
- snskzbs 5y ago
  It isn't a thing, because its nuts outside of a “manifest destiny” wet dream Its the kinda nutty dream likely to start a war just by mentioning it.
sircastor 5y ago
I suspect we will never see additional states added to the USA. It’s a very politically divisive topic. I could see Taiwan becoming a US territory, but I doubt as a nation they would really like that. Either of these options woii I led probably be viewed by China as an act of war...
- why_only_15 5y ago

refenestrator 5y ago

The TSMC chip bottleneck makes it a red line for the US and China knows that. They're patient, no need to do it in a time period when it guarantees maximum blowback.

kragen 5y ago
On the other hand, the US has been aggressively escalating the TSMC conflict with targeted attacks on the PRC's nuclear and supercomputing capabilities: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/04/us-adds-chinese-supercomputing-companies-to-export-blacklist/ https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/04/us-adds-chinese-... and semiconductor fabrication has been a key technology for several five-year plans. So the PRC's patience may run out sooner than you think.
- refenestrator 5y ago
  Way better ROI to invest in more capabilities than engage in a zero-sum conflict which will inevitably trash the fabs in Taiwan anyways. Those trade restrictions just galvanize the Chinese to develop the capabilities themselves. And their system doesn't create a need for a big splashy foreign conflict to sell to the hogs for votes. They're more capable of making the smart play than we are.
  - kragen 5y ago
    Chinese reunification seems unlikely to trash the fabs in Taiwan.

jumelles 5y ago

In the event of a full-blown war the United States could just take possession and control of all foreign-owned fabs in the US.

KirillPanov 5y ago
In this age of cloud there is no way they will operate after losing contact with the mothership. TSMC will not allow them to be built any other way.
kragen 5y ago
The PRC is a nuclear power. In the event of a full-blown war there will be no fabs in the US, foreign-owned or otherwise.
- giardini 5y ago
  Do you really believe China has enough nukes to take out most of the USA's infrastructure? Fab facilities would be waaaay down the list of targets. China's goal has been to maintain a nuclear deterrent (make it not worthwhile to strike China) rather than an offensive capability. if nukes flew then China would likely fragment into many separate countries: its centralized command structure would be destroyed and local politics would be the rule. Look at China's history to see its future after a nuclear war: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=china+how+many++kingdoms https://duckduckgo.com/?q=china+how+many++kingdoms
  - kragen 5y ago
    The PRC is estimated to have some 350 warheads, enough to land one or two on every US city of 100k population or more, killing about a third of the population. That's not nearly enough to prevent a retaliatory strike, but it seems like a fairly effective deterrent, and Intel's and TI's US fabs would definitely be out of commission, even if they weren't targets, until after the Mexican Army or whoever moved in to mop up the leftovers. It's hard to tell what you intend by your DDG link, but perhaps you are suggesting that, in the case of nuclear war, China will effectively revert to the Warring States Period of 2500 years ago. Is that really your intention? What would the US look like if it were returned to 2500 years ago, before the rise of the Anasazi and the Mound Builders, before the Olmec invented writing? A much more likely outcome than this sort of quasi time travel is that either a post-nuclear US or a post-nuclear China would look like nothing ever seen before in human history, more closely resembling the world in the immediate aftermath of the Chicxulub impact.

dillondoyle 5y ago

Legitimate question, is the UK actually allowing and if so is there significant migration out of Hong Kong? They said they would but reality is probably different. I would sure hope so with Taiwan we allow that, but I personally believe if we get to that point we've already lost and the world will look very very different. Unless we're talking about precautionary evacuations and even still doesn't send a lot of confidence. Seems like TSMC is a great first target too, unless MAD stands. When will China have enough internal capacity and knowledge? Before the US? I know the US has large old fabs like one in MN I think that are secure for government needs so minimally we have that + Intel. I'm a big China hawk though and strongly believe in more direction pressure now, let alone squirming away from our bluster & protection commitments if China becomes even more aggressive.

helsinkiandrew 5y ago
Thousands have applied and been granted the visa. But I don’t think there’s been a significant migration out of Hong Kong yet - presumably most people are holding it as a last resort/escape route if things deteriorate.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

magicsmoke 5y ago

That would honestly be the best option for the Taiwanese (other than magically fighting off an invasion with minimal civilian casualties of course). Taiwan only exists because the US stepped in front of Communist China in the 1950s. It wasn't even democratic at the time, but became democratic with US support. But the US essentially birthed a democratic nation on land disputed by a massive neighbor for its own geopolitical goals. In an alternate universe without the US intervention, would the Taiwanese people of that universe even have a distinct identity to agonize over? If the US raised generations of democracy supporters in harms way, doesn't it have a responsibility to take them out of harms way if it cannot defend Taiwan in the future? The Taiwanese may not have their island, but they'll still have their democracy and lives in the country that is arguably singlehandedly responsible for their existence.