20 ms·

The vaccines are still quite effective after the first dose, and, I'm saying this without being a researcher in this area, should be enough to flatten the curve

• aledalgrande 5y ago
  Wow that's impressive, I thought it was ~50% after the first dose. I guess it's like ML, to get the last percentage points you need exponential effort?
  • mikelward 5y ago
    It's 50% if you start counting immediately, before the first dose has had time to work.
  • williamstein 5y ago
    You might be thinking of this paper about very extensive data from Israel: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765 One conclusion a friend of mine wrote about this is "One other surprising thing which is not obvious, but is made very clear from the results, is that it really takes real time for this vaccine to get effective. It only starts becoming truly useful after 2 weeks, but even then keeps getting better with time. This effect is one reason why there was a very real lag between when Israel got vaccinated at a very high percentage of population and when the cases started freefalling (2-3 weeks+). "
  • marcosdumay 5y ago
    > I guess it's like ML It's very like simulated annealing.