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My hot-take having watched the culling from an invested position follows. Disclaimer: i hold both BTC and ETH. While the market in general is down, the major l

My hot-take having watched the culling from an invested position follows. Disclaimer: i hold both BTC and ETH. While the market in general is down, the major losses in this crash were Bitcoin, Doge and Shiba. Bitcoin is an obvious result given the news. Doge and Shiba have had pretty spectacular gains over the last ~30d and seeing them lose considerable value is unsurprising if you follow crypto markets much. Seemingly new money has been racing in lately (see big rises in Eth Classic and Bitcoin Cash as well), i find these dips also unsurprising given past behavior. As a somewhat meta analysis, i feel BTC could have an interesting summer. BTC plateaued at $1.1T in market cap. Meanwhile, Ethereum has been on a steady rise from 250-500B+. Talk of "the flippening" has returned in a way i didn't anticipate, certainly not this early on. While this news impacted the whole market (the market still follows big BTC swings to some extent), i have found my personal sentiment shifting to be increasingly bearish on BTC and bullish on ETH.

osenthuortuh 5y ago
From the charts I'm looking at (market watch), it appears that other cryptos have lost more than bitcoin, by percentage. Am I incorrect?
- nwsm 5y ago
  If you're referring to their comment "the major losses in this crash were Bitcoin, Doge and Shiba", they are most likely picking that list by market cap (though I did not try to crosscheck).
- liquidise 5y ago
  Quite right. The alt-coin market is notoriously volatile even by crypto market standards, and not something i follow close enough to give a strong analysis on. Coinbase's weekly losses chart[0] captures some of what i hoped to express in my parent comment. Bitcoin is interesting because in a way, it hasn't so much lost value lately as not risen with the market the last couple of weeks. 0: https://www.coinbase.com/price/s/top-losers?resolution=week https://www.coinbase.com/price/s/top-losers?resolution=week
- SilasX 5y ago
  Yes, others have, but interestingly, Cardano (ADA) held up well. Even though it dipped, it's still up 20% over the past week and is #4 by market cap.
  - HeadsUpHigh 5y ago
    Just keep in mind that those who move to the coins that pump during a dump tend to put stop losses. So these coins end up dumping harder later on.
    - acchow 5y ago
      I think people are switching to Cardano because it has lower environmental impact (proof of stake) than others. The Tesla announcement was about the environmental cost of Bitcoin after all.
      - Slartie 5y ago
        I'd say this observation might be correct, on the basis that the Tesla announcement also sent the lesser-known NANO currency up by about 60-80%, which uses PoS as well.
  - ComputerGuru 5y ago
    Cardano is actually more subtle than that: it simultaneously tanked because of the whole BTC thing but it also got good (and clearly carefully coordinated) press as a “greener” alternative to BTC as a result of the self-same crash, which boosted its price.
bknybkny 5y ago
I thought SHIB was dead because Vitalik gave it the rugpull?
- tomca32 5y ago
  it's still roughly 3-4x higher than what it was just a week ago
- captn3m0 5y ago
  The charity he donated to is going to liquidate it over time to protect the community. It's ridiculous. https://twitter.com/CryptoRelief_/status/1392559057764962304 https://twitter.com/CryptoRelief_/status/1392559057764962304
  - paulpauper 5y ago
    this is why in finance the most obvious or intuitive prediction or outcome is often the wrong one. "omg..he sold his stock/crypto/token etc., therefore it must fall a lot!" He should have just sold thee shib, convert to $, and cut the check. Too much of charity these days feels like moving assets around and money instead of donating. That is why the UBI is so popular, because it gives the money to the people instead of middlemen, bureaucrats, admins, and money changers.
    - baq 5y ago
      Taxes!
  - Havoc 5y ago
    That protects nothing. Constant sustained selling pressure drives something down just as well as someone dumping. In a way it’s worse because it’s certain and there is no room for hope of a quick recovery like in a crash
purple_ferret 5y ago
The top never feels like the top for people buying in. That applies to both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
paulpauper 5y ago
The crypto market is so big now that it's hard to imagine enough new money to make prices go up anymore. How does anyone justify these obscure tokens and coins being worth billions.
- freshair 5y ago
  > How does anyone justify these obscure tokens and coins being worth billions. The Greater Fool Theory. This stops working when you run out of fools, but the notion of "there's another sucker born every minute" probably keeps the ball rolling for a while.
  - CamelCaseName 5y ago
    Sure, but I thought there could be no more greater fools in 2013, and again in 2017. It is shocking how many fools exist.
    - Slartie 5y ago
      Actually as to my observation it's the same fools again every time, plus some new fools, with ever-deeper pockets. This streak will break not when the maximum number of fools has been reached, but when the fools with the biggest wallets have gotten involved.
    - kirse 5y ago
      In 2017/18 the "smart" money was early into ICOs and the "fools" are just getting into those over the past year. Meanwhile the "smart" money has moved on to DeFi and all that nonsense - DeX, yield farming (ponzi scheming), flash loans, etc. The next cycle you'll see smart money move onto something else, and they'll have figured out how to repackage DeFi to the average fool, which will come with greater linkages to the inherent financial systems. What made the GFC such a massive bubble was how much the financial system was woven into Mortgages/CDOs. Crypto is not there yet, right now it could pop and you'd hear a few regretful stories and friends who lost a few hundred on the "Doge", but it wouldn't be a widespread disaster. Once you start seeing apps utilizing DeFi to enable average "fools" to purchase equities, fund home/auto/college loans etc that will signal a bubble with vicious potential. Dogecoin purchases via Robinhood is probably the easiest we have right now to getting the average fool to trade their currency for memes, but that's still a small subset of gambling.
sickygnar 5y ago
I'm the oppsite, and I'm not a btc maximalist. I'm not going to make any predicitons about the price direction of either coin, I'm mainly surprised by eth's huge rise. there's some risk with the eth2 / PoS migration, though it comes with a huge benefit. would someone mind explaining the technical risk? i'm not that well versed in it, maybe i'm overstating it (the market is obviously bullish about it). without it, smart contracts are borderline unusable. eth also has a big target on its back, a lot of the top coins are going after the smart contract space, mainly the centralized bootleg garbage called binance chain, which unfortunately does fill a market need, at least to less discerning "investors." to my detriment, i haven't touched it. in contrast to eth, i'm not surprised about btc's rise. it does one thing and it does it well. it seems to work well as a hedge against inflation. i don't think that many people care about the environmental impact. it's not immediately visible, at least not like cars and other polluters. it's out of sight and out of mind.
- chrisco255 5y ago
  The proof of stake ETH2 chain is already live for Ethereum and has been since December. That chain is parallel to the existing proof of work chain. They now need to merge the POW chain into the ETH2 validator nodes so they can conduct consensus from there on. The merge has been simulated already and is being tested. Core devs seem to be confident it will be feasible with low risk. But of course, there's always a chance something goes wrong. For more info check out this beautiful site: https://ethmerge.com/ https://ethmerge.com/
  - rawtxapp 5y ago
    It's one thing for it to be live, it's another thing for it to be stress tested in actual production/real world with people's actual money. I have a vested interest in hoping it lands successfully, but being a software engineer, I know how many bugs I've had even in simple programs, I can only imagine the kinds of bugs that will be discovered in eth2 considering just how complex it is.
    - xur17 5y ago
HeadsUpHigh 5y ago
It's fascinating watching the narratives unfold and affecting the price. Bitcoin is the bad guy today, until bitcoin holders just buy up the new liquidity and it starts going up again. Then the narrative will change again.
lmedinas 5y ago
> While the market in general is down, the major losses in this crash were Bitcoin, Doge and Shiba. Bitcoin is an obvious result given the news. Doge and Shiba have had pretty spectacular gains over the last ~30d and seeing them lose considerable value is unsurprising if you follow crypto markets much. the interesting thing is that all those 3 coin crashes were again due to Elon Musk. He has been spreading the FUD all this time. I wonder how influencing markets is legal.
- hilbertseries 5y ago
  Pump and dump schemes are illegal for the stock market. These regulations don’t apply to cryptocurrencies.
tootie 5y ago
AFAIK none of these currencies have anything resembling fundamentals. Is predicting swings done by watching chatter on reddit?
- xur17 5y ago
  This is mostly true, but a number of tokens actually do generate an income in the form of fees, inflation rewards, or a combination of the 2. For example, ETH can earn staking rewards, and post ETH2 merge, will also earn transaction fee revenue. A number of the dexes generate trading fees that get distributed to token holders (giving P/E ratios that are high, but not absolute insanity given they are "growth" stocks).
dnprock 5y ago
I have the opposite take. In bull runs, the market swings between BTC and altcoins. Dogecoin rise unintentionally benefits ETH. It weakened Bitcoin but strengthens Dogecoin and Ethereum. With this crash, people will realize that BTC is the crypto that matters. BTC runs the market. The FUD will cause people to flock to BTC. But that's just a guess. Anything can happen in crypto.

osenthuortuh 5y ago

From the charts I'm looking at (market watch), it appears that other cryptos have lost more than bitcoin, by percentage. Am I incorrect?

nwsm 5y ago
If you're referring to their comment "the major losses in this crash were Bitcoin, Doge and Shiba", they are most likely picking that list by market cap (though I did not try to crosscheck).
liquidise 5y ago
Quite right. The alt-coin market is notoriously volatile even by crypto market standards, and not something i follow close enough to give a strong analysis on. Coinbase's weekly losses chart[0] captures some of what i hoped to express in my parent comment. Bitcoin is interesting because in a way, it hasn't so much lost value lately as not risen with the market the last couple of weeks. 0: https://www.coinbase.com/price/s/top-losers?resolution=week https://www.coinbase.com/price/s/top-losers?resolution=week
SilasX 5y ago
Yes, others have, but interestingly, Cardano (ADA) held up well. Even though it dipped, it's still up 20% over the past week and is #4 by market cap.
- HeadsUpHigh 5y ago
  Just keep in mind that those who move to the coins that pump during a dump tend to put stop losses. So these coins end up dumping harder later on.
  - acchow 5y ago
    I think people are switching to Cardano because it has lower environmental impact (proof of stake) than others. The Tesla announcement was about the environmental cost of Bitcoin after all.
    - Slartie 5y ago
      I'd say this observation might be correct, on the basis that the Tesla announcement also sent the lesser-known NANO currency up by about 60-80%, which uses PoS as well.
- ComputerGuru 5y ago
  Cardano is actually more subtle than that: it simultaneously tanked because of the whole BTC thing but it also got good (and clearly carefully coordinated) press as a “greener” alternative to BTC as a result of the self-same crash, which boosted its price.

bknybkny 5y ago

I thought SHIB was dead because Vitalik gave it the rugpull?

tomca32 5y ago
it's still roughly 3-4x higher than what it was just a week ago
captn3m0 5y ago
The charity he donated to is going to liquidate it over time to protect the community. It's ridiculous. https://twitter.com/CryptoRelief_/status/1392559057764962304 https://twitter.com/CryptoRelief_/status/1392559057764962304
- paulpauper 5y ago
  this is why in finance the most obvious or intuitive prediction or outcome is often the wrong one. "omg..he sold his stock/crypto/token etc., therefore it must fall a lot!" He should have just sold thee shib, convert to $, and cut the check. Too much of charity these days feels like moving assets around and money instead of donating. That is why the UBI is so popular, because it gives the money to the people instead of middlemen, bureaucrats, admins, and money changers.
  - baq 5y ago
    Taxes!
- Havoc 5y ago
  That protects nothing. Constant sustained selling pressure drives something down just as well as someone dumping. In a way it’s worse because it’s certain and there is no room for hope of a quick recovery like in a crash

purple_ferret 5y ago

The top never feels like the top for people buying in. That applies to both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

paulpauper 5y ago

The crypto market is so big now that it's hard to imagine enough new money to make prices go up anymore. How does anyone justify these obscure tokens and coins being worth billions.

freshair 5y ago
> How does anyone justify these obscure tokens and coins being worth billions. The Greater Fool Theory. This stops working when you run out of fools, but the notion of "there's another sucker born every minute" probably keeps the ball rolling for a while.
- CamelCaseName 5y ago
  Sure, but I thought there could be no more greater fools in 2013, and again in 2017. It is shocking how many fools exist.
  - Slartie 5y ago
    Actually as to my observation it's the same fools again every time, plus some new fools, with ever-deeper pockets. This streak will break not when the maximum number of fools has been reached, but when the fools with the biggest wallets have gotten involved.
  - kirse 5y ago
    In 2017/18 the "smart" money was early into ICOs and the "fools" are just getting into those over the past year. Meanwhile the "smart" money has moved on to DeFi and all that nonsense - DeX, yield farming (ponzi scheming), flash loans, etc. The next cycle you'll see smart money move onto something else, and they'll have figured out how to repackage DeFi to the average fool, which will come with greater linkages to the inherent financial systems. What made the GFC such a massive bubble was how much the financial system was woven into Mortgages/CDOs. Crypto is not there yet, right now it could pop and you'd hear a few regretful stories and friends who lost a few hundred on the "Doge", but it wouldn't be a widespread disaster. Once you start seeing apps utilizing DeFi to enable average "fools" to purchase equities, fund home/auto/college loans etc that will signal a bubble with vicious potential. Dogecoin purchases via Robinhood is probably the easiest we have right now to getting the average fool to trade their currency for memes, but that's still a small subset of gambling.

sickygnar 5y ago

I'm the oppsite, and I'm not a btc maximalist. I'm not going to make any predicitons about the price direction of either coin, I'm mainly surprised by eth's huge rise. there's some risk with the eth2 / PoS migration, though it comes with a huge benefit. would someone mind explaining the technical risk? i'm not that well versed in it, maybe i'm overstating it (the market is obviously bullish about it). without it, smart contracts are borderline unusable. eth also has a big target on its back, a lot of the top coins are going after the smart contract space, mainly the centralized bootleg garbage called binance chain, which unfortunately does fill a market need, at least to less discerning "investors." to my detriment, i haven't touched it. in contrast to eth, i'm not surprised about btc's rise. it does one thing and it does it well. it seems to work well as a hedge against inflation. i don't think that many people care about the environmental impact. it's not immediately visible, at least not like cars and other polluters. it's out of sight and out of mind.

chrisco255 5y ago
The proof of stake ETH2 chain is already live for Ethereum and has been since December. That chain is parallel to the existing proof of work chain. They now need to merge the POW chain into the ETH2 validator nodes so they can conduct consensus from there on. The merge has been simulated already and is being tested. Core devs seem to be confident it will be feasible with low risk. But of course, there's always a chance something goes wrong. For more info check out this beautiful site: https://ethmerge.com/ https://ethmerge.com/
- rawtxapp 5y ago
  It's one thing for it to be live, it's another thing for it to be stress tested in actual production/real world with people's actual money. I have a vested interest in hoping it lands successfully, but being a software engineer, I know how many bugs I've had even in simple programs, I can only imagine the kinds of bugs that will be discovered in eth2 considering just how complex it is.
  - xur17 5y ago

HeadsUpHigh 5y ago

It's fascinating watching the narratives unfold and affecting the price. Bitcoin is the bad guy today, until bitcoin holders just buy up the new liquidity and it starts going up again. Then the narrative will change again.

lmedinas 5y ago

> While the market in general is down, the major losses in this crash were Bitcoin, Doge and Shiba. Bitcoin is an obvious result given the news. Doge and Shiba have had pretty spectacular gains over the last ~30d and seeing them lose considerable value is unsurprising if you follow crypto markets much. the interesting thing is that all those 3 coin crashes were again due to Elon Musk. He has been spreading the FUD all this time. I wonder how influencing markets is legal.

hilbertseries 5y ago
Pump and dump schemes are illegal for the stock market. These regulations don’t apply to cryptocurrencies.

tootie 5y ago

AFAIK none of these currencies have anything resembling fundamentals. Is predicting swings done by watching chatter on reddit?

xur17 5y ago
This is mostly true, but a number of tokens actually do generate an income in the form of fees, inflation rewards, or a combination of the 2. For example, ETH can earn staking rewards, and post ETH2 merge, will also earn transaction fee revenue. A number of the dexes generate trading fees that get distributed to token holders (giving P/E ratios that are high, but not absolute insanity given they are "growth" stocks).

dnprock 5y ago

I have the opposite take. In bull runs, the market swings between BTC and altcoins. Dogecoin rise unintentionally benefits ETH. It weakened Bitcoin but strengthens Dogecoin and Ethereum. With this crash, people will realize that BTC is the crypto that matters. BTC runs the market. The FUD will cause people to flock to BTC. But that's just a guess. Anything can happen in crypto.