3 ms·

This sounds apocryphal. Second infections are incredibly rare, let alone three in twelve months. Like clockwork, every discussion of this matter on a discussio

by timr 5y ago

This sounds apocryphal. Second infections are incredibly rare, let alone three in twelve months. Like clockwork, every discussion of this matter on a discussion board brings out at least one person claiming to know people who have been re-infected, yet the number of confirmed examples is measured in the low hundreds, worldwide.

dboreham 5y ago
Confirmed examples perhaps, but if the reinvention rate is 1 in 1000 as stated elsewhere here then the true number worldwide is orders of magnitude higher than a few hundred.
- timr 5y ago
  It isn't 1 in 1000, or we'd be confirming far more than a few hundred examples. The lack of examples isn't for lack of trying to find them -- immunity escape is currently the #1 pre-occupation of every national health service around the globe. The immune system works, and the failure cases here are truly exceptional, whereas the likelihood of rumor is high. Most of these "{my friend} got Covid twice" stories are either hearsay, or people imagining that their allergy symptoms were Covid, while never getting tested properly.
true_religion 5y ago
I think it’s low because in the beginning no one could get tested for COVID. I had an illness back in March 2020 that knocked me out for 2 weeks. Could have been COVID but my state had 0 available test kits so no one can confirm it. February 2021, I’m I’ll again for 2 week. This time it’s confirmed COVID. If we expect immunity to only last about 12 months, then it could have been reinfection especially considering by 2021 there were 4 more strains to get.
- timr 5y ago
  1) You're illustrating my point - you didn't have a first test, and are assuming it was Covid. It probably wasn't. 2) We don't "expect immunity to only last about 12 months". It's been about 12 months since the first cases were confirmed, so that's as far as we can say.

by timr 5y ago

dboreham 5y ago

Confirmed examples perhaps, but if the reinvention rate is 1 in 1000 as stated elsewhere here then the true number worldwide is orders of magnitude higher than a few hundred.

timr 5y ago
It isn't 1 in 1000, or we'd be confirming far more than a few hundred examples. The lack of examples isn't for lack of trying to find them -- immunity escape is currently the #1 pre-occupation of every national health service around the globe. The immune system works, and the failure cases here are truly exceptional, whereas the likelihood of rumor is high. Most of these "{my friend} got Covid twice" stories are either hearsay, or people imagining that their allergy symptoms were Covid, while never getting tested properly.

true_religion 5y ago

I think it’s low because in the beginning no one could get tested for COVID. I had an illness back in March 2020 that knocked me out for 2 weeks. Could have been COVID but my state had 0 available test kits so no one can confirm it. February 2021, I’m I’ll again for 2 week. This time it’s confirmed COVID. If we expect immunity to only last about 12 months, then it could have been reinfection especially considering by 2021 there were 4 more strains to get.

timr 5y ago
1) You're illustrating my point - you didn't have a first test, and are assuming it was Covid. It probably wasn't. 2) We don't "expect immunity to only last about 12 months". It's been about 12 months since the first cases were confirmed, so that's as far as we can say.