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The US hasn't even committed to defending Taiwan. I doubt the US would militarily intervene. The risk of escalation is too high. If China is committed to taking

The US hasn't even committed to defending Taiwan. I doubt the US would militarily intervene. The risk of escalation is too high. If China is committed to taking it, they will get it. The response would be economic, and I'm not confident enough of the world cares, or isn't already beholden to China for it to matter. >Ford class aircraft carriers Isn't there only one Ford class carrier? And it is still not fully ready, and it is in the Atlantic, so at this point is not ready to play a part in any South China Sea conflict.

threeseed 5y ago
At this point there is very little economic sanctions US could impose on China that Trump didn't already either try or talk about. And anything with teeth will never work whilst US companies build everything in China. So for me a short military dispute is more likely. No one is expecting war this year. There will be 3 Ford Class carriers by 2030 and 5 by 2040. As well as the Nimitz class which are still better than what China has today.
- redis_mlc 5y ago
  >At this point there is very little economic sanctions US could impose on China that Trump didn't already either try or talk about. This is incorrect. Trump/Pompeo would have instituted US capital market controls (and pension fund disinvestment) had they been re-elected. That destroyed the USSR, and would have shattered China in a matter of 24 months. At a high level, BRI/etc. rely on a few trillion USD from New York. What Biden needs to do is re-enforce the Trump actions that were rolled back, and continue the capital controls. However, the Biden family is involved in CCP corruption, and Biden's Chief of Staff is a CCP lobbyist. In addition, CCP assets can be seized globally for the Wuhan corona - I think $10 million per death plus $100,000 each for the remainder of the globe would work.
  - redis_mlc 5y ago
    What I wrote above has been reported on NTD Media, including interviews with former State Department officials. This is well-known information for anybody current on CCP issues. Is there some confusion that I can clarify? Am I so ahead of HN that nobody else understands this?
- AnthonyMouse 5y ago
  > At this point there is very little economic sanctions US could impose on China that Trump didn't already either try or talk about. And anything with teeth will never work whilst US companies build everything in China. This is a contradiction. It leaves open the possibility of sanctions sufficient to induce US companies to stop building everything in China. In the long term the cost of this is negligible or produces a net benefit. Maybe some things cost more if it would have been cheaper to make them in China, but that isn't necessarily true outside of China's cross-subsidies which you're then still paying for, and even if they do you get the countervailing economic benefit of repatriating some of the production. (It's also plausible that sanctions on China would move production to places like Mexico and Brazil which are still cheaper than the US, but then you're back to no significant long-term cost increase and a benefit from diversifying production.) The main cost is in the short term, because things would cost more. But they would cost more by the amount of the tariffs. Which go to the government, which it can then give back to the domestic population in various ways. Which could produce a domestic benefit, if China ends up paying any of the tariffs. If there is a $1 import tariff which pays for a $1 tax reduction for the middle class, but the tariff is paid $0.75 by the domestic buyer and $0.25 by the foreign manufacturer, you just transferred $0.25 to the domestic population. The only way you even get a short-term domestic cost is if manufacturing actually does start moving out of China. Because then you have a $1 tariff which causes people to be willing to pay $0.25 more for a product made in Ohio or Mexico. Which costs you the $0.25 and then you don't get the $1 to offset domestic taxes. But it costs China $5, i.e. the full value of the sale and not just the amount of the tariff or the marginal cost of manufacturing it elsewhere. It costs them more than it costs the US. Which gives the US more negotiating leverage to get whatever concessions they want.
- RhodoGSA 5y ago
  China has too much USD denominated debt to last against a protracted trade war.
  - chii 5y ago
    That's not really true - china uses the USD they own to peg the RMB to enhance their export. In times of war, this USD debt is going to be a liability for china, since the US can just refuse to repay it (and after all, what else is china going to do about? Declare war again?).
    - RhodoGSA 5y ago
      https://www.lynalden.com/global-dollar-short-squeeze/ https://www.lynalden.com/global-dollar-short-squeeze/ Kind of explains the problems with China having too much USD debt. Even without times of war.
nobodyandproud 5y ago
Make Taiwan the 52nd state of the US. Make Geopolitics interesting again.

threeseed 5y ago

At this point there is very little economic sanctions US could impose on China that Trump didn't already either try or talk about. And anything with teeth will never work whilst US companies build everything in China. So for me a short military dispute is more likely. No one is expecting war this year. There will be 3 Ford Class carriers by 2030 and 5 by 2040. As well as the Nimitz class which are still better than what China has today.

redis_mlc 5y ago
>At this point there is very little economic sanctions US could impose on China that Trump didn't already either try or talk about. This is incorrect. Trump/Pompeo would have instituted US capital market controls (and pension fund disinvestment) had they been re-elected. That destroyed the USSR, and would have shattered China in a matter of 24 months. At a high level, BRI/etc. rely on a few trillion USD from New York. What Biden needs to do is re-enforce the Trump actions that were rolled back, and continue the capital controls. However, the Biden family is involved in CCP corruption, and Biden's Chief of Staff is a CCP lobbyist. In addition, CCP assets can be seized globally for the Wuhan corona - I think $10 million per death plus $100,000 each for the remainder of the globe would work.
- redis_mlc 5y ago
  What I wrote above has been reported on NTD Media, including interviews with former State Department officials. This is well-known information for anybody current on CCP issues. Is there some confusion that I can clarify? Am I so ahead of HN that nobody else understands this?
AnthonyMouse 5y ago
> At this point there is very little economic sanctions US could impose on China that Trump didn't already either try or talk about. And anything with teeth will never work whilst US companies build everything in China. This is a contradiction. It leaves open the possibility of sanctions sufficient to induce US companies to stop building everything in China. In the long term the cost of this is negligible or produces a net benefit. Maybe some things cost more if it would have been cheaper to make them in China, but that isn't necessarily true outside of China's cross-subsidies which you're then still paying for, and even if they do you get the countervailing economic benefit of repatriating some of the production. (It's also plausible that sanctions on China would move production to places like Mexico and Brazil which are still cheaper than the US, but then you're back to no significant long-term cost increase and a benefit from diversifying production.) The main cost is in the short term, because things would cost more. But they would cost more by the amount of the tariffs. Which go to the government, which it can then give back to the domestic population in various ways. Which could produce a domestic benefit, if China ends up paying any of the tariffs. If there is a $1 import tariff which pays for a $1 tax reduction for the middle class, but the tariff is paid $0.75 by the domestic buyer and $0.25 by the foreign manufacturer, you just transferred $0.25 to the domestic population. The only way you even get a short-term domestic cost is if manufacturing actually does start moving out of China. Because then you have a $1 tariff which causes people to be willing to pay $0.25 more for a product made in Ohio or Mexico. Which costs you the $0.25 and then you don't get the $1 to offset domestic taxes. But it costs China $5, i.e. the full value of the sale and not just the amount of the tariff or the marginal cost of manufacturing it elsewhere. It costs them more than it costs the US. Which gives the US more negotiating leverage to get whatever concessions they want.
RhodoGSA 5y ago
China has too much USD denominated debt to last against a protracted trade war.
- chii 5y ago
  That's not really true - china uses the USD they own to peg the RMB to enhance their export. In times of war, this USD debt is going to be a liability for china, since the US can just refuse to repay it (and after all, what else is china going to do about? Declare war again?).
  - RhodoGSA 5y ago
    https://www.lynalden.com/global-dollar-short-squeeze/ https://www.lynalden.com/global-dollar-short-squeeze/ Kind of explains the problems with China having too much USD debt. Even without times of war.

nobodyandproud 5y ago

Make Taiwan the 52nd state of the US. Make Geopolitics interesting again.