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So awesome to see Lyn Alden at the top of Hacker News. She is an absolute genius! If you aren't familiar with her work and thinking I think a good introduction

by anm89 6y ago

So awesome to see Lyn Alden at the top of Hacker News. She is an absolute genius! If you aren't familiar with her work and thinking I think a good introduction interview is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_JmGLMjIOk&t=35s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_JmGLMjIOk&t=35s Fun fact: She is an electrical / industrial engineer by trade, not an economist.

silexia 6y ago
I agree. I made a great bet at the beginning of the pandemic, but then the Fed hurt me with it's quick action. I didn't understand macroeconomics, but Lyn Alden has really helped me understand it better with her long form articles.
- vmception 6y ago
  I wonder if the Court of Claims would cover trading losses from the Fed’s actions I should look up the judges to get a feel for their predilections I wanted to see S&P 12,000 for a moment
  - sbelskie 6y ago
    How would the Fed fulfilling its mandate give anyone a case for recovering their trading losses?
    - vmception 6y ago
      A different part of the Federal government has a mandate of paying people harmed by the Federal Governments actions. Just make the argument and see. Google Scholar has all of that court’s cases online in plain text.
      - sbelskie 6y ago
        But if the government raises taxes you don’t get to sue for lost expected income (absent some specific extenuating circumstances), do you?
        vmception 6y ago
        What do the Court of Claims cases say? Were those cases dismissed?
        sbelskie 6y ago
        I’m not a lawyer or a scholar on these matters, so can you help point me to the Court of Claims you mean? The only one I can find no longer exists: “The Court of Claims was a federal court that heard claims against the United States government. It was established in 1855, renamed in 1948 to the United States Court of Claims (67 Stat. 226), and abolished in 1982.”
        vmception 6y ago
        The court of federal claims still exists, odd one word messed up your google-fu
        sbelskie 6y ago
        It was an honest question. It didn’t mess up any googling. I just don’t know anything about the particular legal structure/origin/whatever of the court you brought up, and so I had no way to know if the slight difference in name was meaningful or not.
        vmception 5y ago
        I could have worded that better, I still think it is odd that the search engine didn't correct you to the most likely correct source. I honestly wonder what the extent of the accepted arguments are to that court.
jbay808 6y ago
I really liked her article on understanding Japanification, which I probably found linked from HN too. I'd never heard of her before but I immediately added her to my favourites. https://www.lynalden.com/economic-japanification/ https://www.lynalden.com/economic-japanification/
dang 6y ago
Some other threads from that site: An Economic Analysis of Ethereum - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25811356 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25811356 - Jan 2021 (111 comments) The Fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25558573 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25558573 - Dec 2020 (17 comments) The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25407583 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25407583 - Dec 2020 (344 comments) Banks, QE, and Money-Printing - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24978567 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24978567 - Nov 2020 (235 comments) Why This Is Unlike the Great Depression - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22890151 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22890151 - April 2020 (2 comments) How to Win a Currency War - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22837518 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22837518 - April 2020 (60 comments) The Global Dollar Short Squeeze - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22828991 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22828991 - April 2020 (211 comments)
dnautics 5y ago
While most of the article is good, It's really sad that she apes the old refrain that inflation hurts the poor because they are in debt. Many of the poor cannot even be in debt because they have no access to the financial system. Those that do, mostly have access to payday lending. It's laughable to hold the opinion that inflation will do anything for someone who owes 10% on top by next month. For the middle class, it's one step up -- credit cards, still laughable to think that a 2% inflation will help out someone with a 15% APR revolving line of credit. The place where it starts to help is when you have large capital loans on fixed interest like home ownership. But her graphs in the next section relating inflation to wealth gap capture the 1% vs the rest, which is not necessarily a mechanistically informative figure of merit... I'd like to see it where the wealth gap when you draw the line closer to something like the low-interest loan accessibility gap.
- anm89 5y ago
  I think you are misunderstanding her argument and tbh I don't think anyone makes the claim that inflation hurts the poor because they are in debt. If anything it is the exact opposite. Inflation is a benefit to debtors because they get to pay back principal in devalued currency. That's why a cheap 30 year mortgage is an amazing deal in an inflationary environment Inflation hurts people who don't have access to debt and who are more dependent on cash and on fixed incomes. This is exactly what Lyn claims here: > There are, however, some groups in lower income brackets that do poorly in inflationary environments. If someone doesn’t have a lot of money and lives on a fixed income in retirement, they have a lot of vulnerability to inflation. Those sorts of folks should consider owning inflation hedges to protect their lifestyle, if they expect that high levels of inflation have a reasonable probability of occurring.
  - dnautics 5y ago
    Holy mistype. In GP post I meant to type "good for the poor because they are in debt", which is what Lyn uncritically forwards in OP as a (to be fair common) argument. "lower classes also have more debt which gets partially inflated away in inflationary environments, and..." Also the wealthy benefit greatly from debt-based financial instruments (corporate bonds for the companies they run, leveraged trading, forex, options) even if they aren't in debt personally.
cerved 5y ago
If she's not an economist, what is it that lends credence to her writing about economics and monetary policy?
- runeks 5y ago
  The fact that it’s possible to acquire knowledge outside of university.
  - cerved 5y ago
    Right, so what is it about this particular individual that lends credibility? If an economist was writing about computer science, everybody on HN would dismiss it.
    - hnick 5y ago
      Per her bio: I have a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering and a master’s degree in engineering management, with a focus on engineering economics and financial modeling. I oversee the finances and day-to-day operations of an engineering facility. I’ve been performing investment research for over fifteen years in various public and private capacities. So it is a mixture of education and practical experience. Whether that lends weight to her output is up to the reader.
- Cthulhu_ 5y ago
  I was waiting for the first gatekeeping comment, and there it is.
  - CRConrad 5y ago
    What's "gatekeeping" about asking for credentials? Does the fact that she's not an economist also automatically make her an authority on astronomy, medicine, and history, or how does this work...? "No no no, in order to be an authority on astronomy it doesn't help not to be an economist; you need not to be a historian!", or what?
- 5y ago

by anm89 6y ago

silexia 6y ago

I agree. I made a great bet at the beginning of the pandemic, but then the Fed hurt me with it's quick action. I didn't understand macroeconomics, but Lyn Alden has really helped me understand it better with her long form articles.

vmception 6y ago
I wonder if the Court of Claims would cover trading losses from the Fed’s actions I should look up the judges to get a feel for their predilections I wanted to see S&P 12,000 for a moment
- sbelskie 6y ago
  How would the Fed fulfilling its mandate give anyone a case for recovering their trading losses?
  - vmception 6y ago
    A different part of the Federal government has a mandate of paying people harmed by the Federal Governments actions. Just make the argument and see. Google Scholar has all of that court’s cases online in plain text.
    - sbelskie 6y ago
      But if the government raises taxes you don’t get to sue for lost expected income (absent some specific extenuating circumstances), do you?
      - vmception 6y ago
        What do the Court of Claims cases say? Were those cases dismissed?
        sbelskie 6y ago
        I’m not a lawyer or a scholar on these matters, so can you help point me to the Court of Claims you mean? The only one I can find no longer exists: “The Court of Claims was a federal court that heard claims against the United States government. It was established in 1855, renamed in 1948 to the United States Court of Claims (67 Stat. 226), and abolished in 1982.”
        vmception 6y ago
        The court of federal claims still exists, odd one word messed up your google-fu
        sbelskie 6y ago
        It was an honest question. It didn’t mess up any googling. I just don’t know anything about the particular legal structure/origin/whatever of the court you brought up, and so I had no way to know if the slight difference in name was meaningful or not.
        vmception 5y ago
        I could have worded that better, I still think it is odd that the search engine didn't correct you to the most likely correct source. I honestly wonder what the extent of the accepted arguments are to that court.

jbay808 6y ago

I really liked her article on understanding Japanification, which I probably found linked from HN too. I'd never heard of her before but I immediately added her to my favourites. https://www.lynalden.com/economic-japanification/ https://www.lynalden.com/economic-japanification/

dang 6y ago

Some other threads from that site: An Economic Analysis of Ethereum - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25811356 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25811356 - Jan 2021 (111 comments) The Fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25558573 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25558573 - Dec 2020 (17 comments) The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25407583 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25407583 - Dec 2020 (344 comments) Banks, QE, and Money-Printing - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24978567 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24978567 - Nov 2020 (235 comments) Why This Is Unlike the Great Depression - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22890151 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22890151 - April 2020 (2 comments) How to Win a Currency War - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22837518 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22837518 - April 2020 (60 comments) The Global Dollar Short Squeeze - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22828991 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22828991 - April 2020 (211 comments)

dnautics 5y ago

While most of the article is good, It's really sad that she apes the old refrain that inflation hurts the poor because they are in debt. Many of the poor cannot even be in debt because they have no access to the financial system. Those that do, mostly have access to payday lending. It's laughable to hold the opinion that inflation will do anything for someone who owes 10% on top by next month. For the middle class, it's one step up -- credit cards, still laughable to think that a 2% inflation will help out someone with a 15% APR revolving line of credit. The place where it starts to help is when you have large capital loans on fixed interest like home ownership. But her graphs in the next section relating inflation to wealth gap capture the 1% vs the rest, which is not necessarily a mechanistically informative figure of merit... I'd like to see it where the wealth gap when you draw the line closer to something like the low-interest loan accessibility gap.

anm89 5y ago
I think you are misunderstanding her argument and tbh I don't think anyone makes the claim that inflation hurts the poor because they are in debt. If anything it is the exact opposite. Inflation is a benefit to debtors because they get to pay back principal in devalued currency. That's why a cheap 30 year mortgage is an amazing deal in an inflationary environment Inflation hurts people who don't have access to debt and who are more dependent on cash and on fixed incomes. This is exactly what Lyn claims here: > There are, however, some groups in lower income brackets that do poorly in inflationary environments. If someone doesn’t have a lot of money and lives on a fixed income in retirement, they have a lot of vulnerability to inflation. Those sorts of folks should consider owning inflation hedges to protect their lifestyle, if they expect that high levels of inflation have a reasonable probability of occurring.
- dnautics 5y ago
  Holy mistype. In GP post I meant to type "good for the poor because they are in debt", which is what Lyn uncritically forwards in OP as a (to be fair common) argument. "lower classes also have more debt which gets partially inflated away in inflationary environments, and..." Also the wealthy benefit greatly from debt-based financial instruments (corporate bonds for the companies they run, leveraged trading, forex, options) even if they aren't in debt personally.

cerved 5y ago

If she's not an economist, what is it that lends credence to her writing about economics and monetary policy?

runeks 5y ago
The fact that it’s possible to acquire knowledge outside of university.
- cerved 5y ago
  Right, so what is it about this particular individual that lends credibility? If an economist was writing about computer science, everybody on HN would dismiss it.
  - hnick 5y ago
    Per her bio: I have a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering and a master’s degree in engineering management, with a focus on engineering economics and financial modeling. I oversee the finances and day-to-day operations of an engineering facility. I’ve been performing investment research for over fifteen years in various public and private capacities. So it is a mixture of education and practical experience. Whether that lends weight to her output is up to the reader.
Cthulhu_ 5y ago
I was waiting for the first gatekeeping comment, and there it is.
- CRConrad 5y ago
  What's "gatekeeping" about asking for credentials? Does the fact that she's not an economist also automatically make her an authority on astronomy, medicine, and history, or how does this work...? "No no no, in order to be an authority on astronomy it doesn't help not to be an economist; you need not to be a historian!", or what?
5y ago