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Is there any realistic estimate for how much cheaper SpaceX will be, compared to bringing cargo up on traditional rockets? I've seen Musk claim something ridicu

Is there any realistic estimate for how much cheaper SpaceX will be, compared to bringing cargo up on traditional rockets? I've seen Musk claim something ridiculous like it's 1% of the cost of legacy systems but guess that should be taken with a grain of salt.

bodhiandphysics 5y ago
Let’s compare how much cheaper spacex is. For a 5 ton geo bird, spacex is about 2/3 the price of its competition. This however is price not cost. The best estimate for starlink is that SpaceX’s cost per satellite is about 500 thousand. This compares to oneweb’s 2 million per sat, for says that weigh half as much. Starship could have a cost (not a price) that is very low indeed.
Veedrac 5y ago
Falcon 9 is about half the price of competitors right now, though the internal cost is under half that again; a lack of competition has prevented SpaceX from needing to lower prices further. Starship doesn't have an unambiguous cost because it's dependent so heavily on factors like market size, whether the Mars thing happens, and reliability. A marginal cost of a few million dollars is an explicit goal, but a more short-term rough goal is about Falcon 9 prices, or $50m/launch. That's both a very reasonable number, and also still more than 10x better than the competition. https://youtu.be/GomoD0rYhJ8?t=1285 https://youtu.be/GomoD0rYhJ8?t=1285
- imglorp 5y ago
  > whether the Mars thing happens Plus $2.9B for the moon contract doesn't hurt either. It will go back into developing more starship features.
  - Veedrac 5y ago
    There's a good chance for a lot more than that to come their way. Congress has spent almost $50B on SLS+Orion for Artemis, which Moonship would make totally redundant.
solarkraft 5y ago
Thunderf00t, in one of his critical videos, puts break-even at 3 launches, IIRC.
- nickik 5y ago
  Thunderf00t is pretty much a hack and about the least reliable source for anything.
  - solarkraft 5y ago
    Because he does everything in his power to make Elon Musk look bad it seems like a good plastic “worst case” value to work with.
spfzero 5y ago
IIRC he was talking about the cash outlay for fuel. That’s the marginal cost to launch not counting the amortization of the rocket itself plus launch facilities etc.

bodhiandphysics 5y ago

Let’s compare how much cheaper spacex is. For a 5 ton geo bird, spacex is about 2/3 the price of its competition. This however is price not cost. The best estimate for starlink is that SpaceX’s cost per satellite is about 500 thousand. This compares to oneweb’s 2 million per sat, for says that weigh half as much. Starship could have a cost (not a price) that is very low indeed.

Veedrac 5y ago

Falcon 9 is about half the price of competitors right now, though the internal cost is under half that again; a lack of competition has prevented SpaceX from needing to lower prices further. Starship doesn't have an unambiguous cost because it's dependent so heavily on factors like market size, whether the Mars thing happens, and reliability. A marginal cost of a few million dollars is an explicit goal, but a more short-term rough goal is about Falcon 9 prices, or $50m/launch. That's both a very reasonable number, and also still more than 10x better than the competition. https://youtu.be/GomoD0rYhJ8?t=1285 https://youtu.be/GomoD0rYhJ8?t=1285

imglorp 5y ago
> whether the Mars thing happens Plus $2.9B for the moon contract doesn't hurt either. It will go back into developing more starship features.
- Veedrac 5y ago
  There's a good chance for a lot more than that to come their way. Congress has spent almost $50B on SLS+Orion for Artemis, which Moonship would make totally redundant.

solarkraft 5y ago

Thunderf00t, in one of his critical videos, puts break-even at 3 launches, IIRC.

nickik 5y ago
Thunderf00t is pretty much a hack and about the least reliable source for anything.
- solarkraft 5y ago
  Because he does everything in his power to make Elon Musk look bad it seems like a good plastic “worst case” value to work with.

spfzero 5y ago

IIRC he was talking about the cash outlay for fuel. That’s the marginal cost to launch not counting the amortization of the rocket itself plus launch facilities etc.