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I've always wondered what it would be like to suddenly lose the ability to build higher technology like computer chips. Obviously this is just a shortage and no

I've always wondered what it would be like to suddenly lose the ability to build higher technology like computer chips. Obviously this is just a shortage and not the same as manufacturing just vanishing, but the effects will be interesting to observe.

rightbyte 5y ago
Many products like water boilers, ovens or toasters can be built more robust without digital chips. I would argue we would see a overall quality improvement from having a bad chip shortage.
- jpm_sd 5y ago
  LOL nobody remembers how to design analog control systems anymore
  - ta988 5y ago
    And they are not always more robust. Calibration, noise sensitivity...
  - rightbyte 5y ago
    I mean the systems I name dropped are thermostats or timers.
- tomxor 5y ago
  I would be careful to conflate internet connected trash with enough ARM cores and LoC to make your brain melt with the likes of a well placed humble microcontroller.. the mechanical or analogue components they replaced were usually far more temperamental, bulky, expensive and bad at their job. There are exceptional environments like in nuclear power, but for most purposes integrated electronics have improved reliability when done well.
  - cfn 5y ago
    Anyone who ever tried to fix a broken washing machine mechanical timer/programmer agrees with you. I did try and failed miserably, those things were a nightmare to fix and broke quite easily.
    - betamaxthetape 5y ago
      I'd agree that mechanical mechanisms may break more easily than microprocessor equivalents, but I'm not sure about the argument that they are more difficult to repair. With microprocessor-driven systems, the solutions seems to be to replace the entire PCB, which is often completely custom to the manufacturer or even the specific model of machine. Trying to source a reasonably priced replacement is often difficult, and there's no easy way to diagnose and repair a broken PCB.
      - SilverRed 5y ago
        Right to repair should come in to fix this. My off the top of the head thoughts would be * For a device like washing machine, parts should be supplied for a time of about 10 years. * Every part should be available to purchase either on its own or as part of a replacement kit like a PCB. * The sum of the cost of all replacement parts shouldn't be above x% of the initial item price. * If an OEM physically can not get you a replacement part (Chip discontinued, etc) and your product breaks, the OEM pays you for the remaining expected lifetime. (If it was 5 years old they pay you 50% of the initial cost) So in theory you should be able to build an entirely new product from parts and it would only cost you x% more than a pre built one which stops OEMs setting insane prices on replacements. The end result would likely be that OEMs would have to slim down on their product variations and sell the same designs for longer rather than releasing a new model of printer every year since this would make it much easier to stock parts. Some companies already do this, I have noticed Brevile has sold the same kettle and coffee machine models for almost 10 years now.
    - salawat 5y ago
      Done so, still prefer analog up until things get so small or fragile they can't hold up anymore. As long as the part is still manufactured, you're good. PCB's? Forget it. E-waste central.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- huseyinkeles 5y ago
  Genuine question: how is the lack of digital chips going to make a toaster more robust?
  - logicalmonster 5y ago
    As an easy answer: the fewer parts there are, usually the less there is to potentially break down. A more classic style of toaster can be as simple as a heating element that's triggered by some kind of mechanical timer you set contained within some kind of container. There's much less that can possibly break down with age and burn out. There's no internal sensors, multiple buttons and electronics that can burn out, maybe some sort of WiFi component that might mess up, and more that can go wrong. Additionally with fewer parts, the manufacturing quality can hypothetically (but not always) be better. It seems easier to get the manufacturing right on a machine with 10 separate components versus say 60.
  - HelloNurse 5y ago
    Not internet connected, no unsafe touch screen, no chance of software glitches or reprogramming... the list is long. A humble analog toaster is normal, a digital toaster is a step backwards.
    - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
      Yeah. What I need from a toaster is that it makes toast. I don't need it to order the bread from Amazon Home Delivery. I even more don't need it to open the house door when the delivery arrives. Just make my toast. And when you're not doing that, just sit there and be a paperweight. That's all I need.
  - CRConrad 5y ago
    YouTuber Technology Connections was featured in the recent discussion on diswashing machines and detergents. He's done a video on a lovely ancient toaster, too: https://youtu.be/1OfxlSG6q5Y https://youtu.be/1OfxlSG6q5Y Fully automatic brownness selection, and hands-free insertion and pop-up -- all without any electronic chips at all.
batty_alex 5y ago
No need to wonder, it's not the first time something like this has happened: https://tedium.co/2016/11/24/1988-ram-shortage-history/ https://tedium.co/2016/11/24/1988-ram-shortage-history/ https://www.theverge.com/2012/4/19/2960606/qualcomm-snapdragon-chip-shortage-2012 https://www.theverge.com/2012/4/19/2960606/qualcomm-snapdrag...
BlueTemplar 5y ago
There's an OS for that : http://collapseos.org/ http://collapseos.org/
baybal2 5y ago
The industry has largely forgotten how to make stuff without chips. That's why I am telling people that a global chip shortage, if something happens to Taiwan, would bring the industry not back into fifties, but into the iron age. The further the tech ladder you go, the harder you fall if somebody takes out your engineering bay.
- noahtallen 5y ago
  I don’t think that would happen. Firstly, the US government and army (like it or not) has an interest in not falling behind technologically. Additionally, Intel has most of its fabs in the US already. Samsung and TSMC are currently building fabs in the US too. Finally, the US still has a strong tech culture. So I think it would not take long with an increased demand (and higher salaries) for computer engineers to attract a lot of good talent. I mean, I agree it wouldn’t be good. But back to the 50s? Or even the “Iron Age”? That seems awfully pessimistic. Like, I get that Intel is not doing great, but it’s only like a handful of years bad, not decades bad
  - baybal2 5y ago
    No Intel fab will run more than a few weeks without consumables coming from Asia. A giant lot of semi supplies are single vendor globally, and much of them are in Taiwan. It's likely that no fab in the West past the I-line era will be able to resume, and continue production with local supplies, even with immediate nation-state level effort to recreate the supply chain.
- shrimpx 5y ago
  > if something happens to Taiwan TSMC is building a megafactory in Phoenix AZ which should help distribute that risk. It will take several years to complete however.
- rajacombinator 5y ago
  What could happen to Taiwan? I’m interested.
  - 5y ago
golemiprague 5y ago
At the end of the bronze age there was a shortage of tin to create the bronze (with copper). This caused the beginning of the iron age as people were looking for alternatives to bronze and once tin was back in the market it was not valuable anymore. The whole process was coincided with falling of civilisations, disruption of trade and general reorganisation of world powers, so expect some of that.

rightbyte 5y ago

Many products like water boilers, ovens or toasters can be built more robust without digital chips. I would argue we would see a overall quality improvement from having a bad chip shortage.

jpm_sd 5y ago
LOL nobody remembers how to design analog control systems anymore
- ta988 5y ago
  And they are not always more robust. Calibration, noise sensitivity...
- rightbyte 5y ago
  I mean the systems I name dropped are thermostats or timers.
tomxor 5y ago
I would be careful to conflate internet connected trash with enough ARM cores and LoC to make your brain melt with the likes of a well placed humble microcontroller.. the mechanical or analogue components they replaced were usually far more temperamental, bulky, expensive and bad at their job. There are exceptional environments like in nuclear power, but for most purposes integrated electronics have improved reliability when done well.
- cfn 5y ago
  Anyone who ever tried to fix a broken washing machine mechanical timer/programmer agrees with you. I did try and failed miserably, those things were a nightmare to fix and broke quite easily.
  - betamaxthetape 5y ago
    I'd agree that mechanical mechanisms may break more easily than microprocessor equivalents, but I'm not sure about the argument that they are more difficult to repair. With microprocessor-driven systems, the solutions seems to be to replace the entire PCB, which is often completely custom to the manufacturer or even the specific model of machine. Trying to source a reasonably priced replacement is often difficult, and there's no easy way to diagnose and repair a broken PCB.
    - SilverRed 5y ago
      Right to repair should come in to fix this. My off the top of the head thoughts would be * For a device like washing machine, parts should be supplied for a time of about 10 years. * Every part should be available to purchase either on its own or as part of a replacement kit like a PCB. * The sum of the cost of all replacement parts shouldn't be above x% of the initial item price. * If an OEM physically can not get you a replacement part (Chip discontinued, etc) and your product breaks, the OEM pays you for the remaining expected lifetime. (If it was 5 years old they pay you 50% of the initial cost) So in theory you should be able to build an entirely new product from parts and it would only cost you x% more than a pre built one which stops OEMs setting insane prices on replacements. The end result would likely be that OEMs would have to slim down on their product variations and sell the same designs for longer rather than releasing a new model of printer every year since this would make it much easier to stock parts. Some companies already do this, I have noticed Brevile has sold the same kettle and coffee machine models for almost 10 years now.
  - salawat 5y ago
    Done so, still prefer analog up until things get so small or fragile they can't hold up anymore. As long as the part is still manufactured, you're good. PCB's? Forget it. E-waste central.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
huseyinkeles 5y ago
Genuine question: how is the lack of digital chips going to make a toaster more robust?
- logicalmonster 5y ago
  As an easy answer: the fewer parts there are, usually the less there is to potentially break down. A more classic style of toaster can be as simple as a heating element that's triggered by some kind of mechanical timer you set contained within some kind of container. There's much less that can possibly break down with age and burn out. There's no internal sensors, multiple buttons and electronics that can burn out, maybe some sort of WiFi component that might mess up, and more that can go wrong. Additionally with fewer parts, the manufacturing quality can hypothetically (but not always) be better. It seems easier to get the manufacturing right on a machine with 10 separate components versus say 60.
- HelloNurse 5y ago
  Not internet connected, no unsafe touch screen, no chance of software glitches or reprogramming... the list is long. A humble analog toaster is normal, a digital toaster is a step backwards.
  - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
    Yeah. What I need from a toaster is that it makes toast. I don't need it to order the bread from Amazon Home Delivery. I even more don't need it to open the house door when the delivery arrives. Just make my toast. And when you're not doing that, just sit there and be a paperweight. That's all I need.
- CRConrad 5y ago
  YouTuber Technology Connections was featured in the recent discussion on diswashing machines and detergents. He's done a video on a lovely ancient toaster, too: https://youtu.be/1OfxlSG6q5Y https://youtu.be/1OfxlSG6q5Y Fully automatic brownness selection, and hands-free insertion and pop-up -- all without any electronic chips at all.

batty_alex 5y ago

No need to wonder, it's not the first time something like this has happened: https://tedium.co/2016/11/24/1988-ram-shortage-history/ https://tedium.co/2016/11/24/1988-ram-shortage-history/ https://www.theverge.com/2012/4/19/2960606/qualcomm-snapdragon-chip-shortage-2012 https://www.theverge.com/2012/4/19/2960606/qualcomm-snapdrag...

BlueTemplar 5y ago

There's an OS for that : http://collapseos.org/ http://collapseos.org/

baybal2 5y ago

The industry has largely forgotten how to make stuff without chips. That's why I am telling people that a global chip shortage, if something happens to Taiwan, would bring the industry not back into fifties, but into the iron age. The further the tech ladder you go, the harder you fall if somebody takes out your engineering bay.

noahtallen 5y ago
I don’t think that would happen. Firstly, the US government and army (like it or not) has an interest in not falling behind technologically. Additionally, Intel has most of its fabs in the US already. Samsung and TSMC are currently building fabs in the US too. Finally, the US still has a strong tech culture. So I think it would not take long with an increased demand (and higher salaries) for computer engineers to attract a lot of good talent. I mean, I agree it wouldn’t be good. But back to the 50s? Or even the “Iron Age”? That seems awfully pessimistic. Like, I get that Intel is not doing great, but it’s only like a handful of years bad, not decades bad
- baybal2 5y ago
  No Intel fab will run more than a few weeks without consumables coming from Asia. A giant lot of semi supplies are single vendor globally, and much of them are in Taiwan. It's likely that no fab in the West past the I-line era will be able to resume, and continue production with local supplies, even with immediate nation-state level effort to recreate the supply chain.
shrimpx 5y ago
> if something happens to Taiwan TSMC is building a megafactory in Phoenix AZ which should help distribute that risk. It will take several years to complete however.
rajacombinator 5y ago
What could happen to Taiwan? I’m interested.
- 5y ago

golemiprague 5y ago

At the end of the bronze age there was a shortage of tin to create the bronze (with copper). This caused the beginning of the iron age as people were looking for alternatives to bronze and once tin was back in the market it was not valuable anymore. The whole process was coincided with falling of civilisations, disruption of trade and general reorganisation of world powers, so expect some of that.