4 ms·

> There are lots of other plausible alternative hypotheses. I would be curious which ones that would be.

• timr 6y ago
  Sure, here's a much better treatment of the same subject: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-excess-mortality https://ourworldindata.org/covid-excess-mortality
  • newacct583 6y ago
    Which is an excellent article. I just fail to see how you think it's inconsistent with the numbers in the IHME story above or their methodology. Lots of these confounding factors are expressly enumerated. I mean, do experts like the authors of that OWiD article find the same fault with IHME that you do? Can you cite some making similar criticisms? Again, I get the distinct feeling that you're arguing with methodology here not because there's anything particularly suspicious with IHME at all, but because the conclusion (that the US is approaching 1M covid deaths, something that should surprise no one) is politically inconvenient.
    • timr 6y ago
      > I mean, do experts like the authors of that OWiD article find the same fault with IHME that you do? Can you cite some making similar criticisms? I don't know. I don't cross-check my thoughts with every "expert" in the world before I express them. I have expertise in this field; I can think for myself. > Again, I get the distinct feeling that you're arguing with methodology here not because there's anything particularly suspicious with IHME at all, but because the conclusion (that the US is approaching 1M covid deaths, something that should surprise no one) is politically inconvenient. You have no idea what my politics are. I am saying that this model reflects the assumptions used to create it. Nothing more, nothing less. It is not a validation of the assumptions -- it is a regurgitation of the assumptions.