6 ms·

At this point in time, it seems illogical to assume that Americans adversaries do not have all the detailed plans on building secret planes. In fact, I would b

At this point in time, it seems illogical to assume that Americans adversaries do not have all the detailed plans on building secret planes. In fact, I would be genuinely shocked if they didn’t know everything at this point.

nradov 6y ago
If our adversaries actually knew everything then we would see it flying today. Obviously that isn't the case. The Chinese are still struggling to successfully copy previous generation Russian designs, which are themselves a step behind the latest US and European models in terms of efficiency and reliability.
- dplavery92 6y ago
  >The Chinese are still struggling to successfully copy previous generation Russian designs This is certainly not true. If anything, the Chinese are very successfully copying current generation American designs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-20 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-20 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenyang_FC-31 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenyang_FC-31
  - nradov 6y ago
    Nonsense. Those are superficial copies of some aspects of the airframes. It's the engines and avionics inside that count. What is the efficiency in terms of thrust per unit of fuel burned? How many hours can they run between overhauls?
  - trhway 6y ago
    looks like you didn't read your own links - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenyang_FC-31#Engines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenyang_FC-31#Engines , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-20#Engines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-20#Engines Look at those round vector controlled engines. It is Russian 4th (mostly 4+ as of today) gen engines. That is the reason Russia hasn't so far been able to build an F-22 competitor - for PAK-FA, out of the 3 key component of the 5th gen, they built body, not bad of a radar, yet they haven't been able to build a 5th gen engine as of today. China has as of today almost been able to replicate that 4th+ gen engine, yet still very far from the 5th gen. Even more - Russia has actually officially given up on building the 5th gen. They decided to go straight to the 6th gen which is supposedly all about AI/networking/sensors/drones/etc. with engines playing only secondary role. Not that they have much hopes to succeed at the 6th gen game too, it is just recognition of reality that the 5th gen F-22 level engine isn't happening in the near future and thus they need a plan B. In some sense that leaves China totally on their own when it comes to the 5th gen, and that means like at least 10 years from the current state, and by that time the air will be dominated by the AI/drones/etc. In that sense AI engineers going to work in China may be more strategically important than the Honeywell drawings :) As an example - the current drone powerhouse dominating the region - Turkey - got their drones built by a returned MIT graduate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sel%C3%A7uk_Bayraktar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sel%C3%A7uk_Bayraktar .
    - FpUser 6y ago
      >"the 5th gen F-22 level engine isn't happening in the near future and thus they need a plan B" Accordingly to online sources they are actually testing second stage 5+ gen engine for SU-57 and are hoping to deploy it sometime in 2022. Will they succeed is a different question of course.
      - trhway 6y ago
        right, and the best estimates of having a meaningful operational force is by the end of the decade: https://eurasiantimes.com/russian-su-57-fighter-soars-high-india-turkey-among-potential-buyers/ https://eurasiantimes.com/russian-su-57-fighter-soars-high-i... "The Russian military will be supplied with 76 jets by 2028, 22 of which will be operational by 2024." Even if they deliver on those estimates, i think the skies will be different in 2030-ties (imagine the thousands of Starlink like satellites managing the army of drones - each drone is easy to shoot down, yet no human carrying plane can defend itself from a large group of drones simultaneously firing beyond-visual-range missiles) Anyway, i don't believe those estimates for a lot of reasons. In particular most of the Russian new military hardware - i mean generationally new, not just modernizations - that has been shown and planned for deliveries starting in the last decade hasn't yet materialized, with the money being one of the key reasons. Another is that Russia is still not going to be able to project power anywhere beside its own vicinity, and thus will be focusing on protecting its shores which, given limited financial resources, favors as the first priority ground based advanced anti-aircraft defense and MiG-31 style approach (ie. like SU-35 with advanced radar and missiles instead of going all the way with Su-57).
        deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
    - grepfru_it 6y ago
      >That is the reason Russia hasn't so far been able to build an F-22 competitor The Su-57 would like to have some words with you. Granted it is a bit late to the party..
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- mint2 6y ago
  Having plans versus actually manufacturing something is a big step. There’s a lot of knowledge needed that’s not in plans.
  - thechao 6y ago
    Right. I have plans for a reusable Mars rocketship. It's the implementation details I'm needing some help with.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- vanattab 6y ago
  >If our adversaries actually knew everything then we would see it flying today. Well maybe they know so much about our F35 design... they choose not to build them ;)
  - 1cvmask 6y ago
    The F35 is an engineering disaster and a hangar queen. Meanwhile the Raptor and Warthog are the epitome of engineering excellence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairchild_Republic_A-10_Thunderbolt_II https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairchild_Republic_A-10_Thunde... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-22_Raptor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-22_Raptor Edit: Since I am being downvoted here are some facts on the universally acknowledged disastrous F-35: https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/320295-the-us-air-force-quietly-admits-the-f-35-is-a-failure https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/320295-the-us-air-force-... https://www.businessinsider.in/defense/hardware/how-the-f-35-turned-into-such-a-disaster/slidelist/21037186.cms https://www.businessinsider.in/defense/hardware/how-the-f-35... https://acqnotes.com/news/bigest-acquisition-disaster-history-f-35 https://acqnotes.com/news/bigest-acquisition-disaster-histor... https://eurasiantimes.com/inside-americas-trillion-dollar-disaster-how-the-us-f-35-jets-emerged-from-the-ashes/ https://eurasiantimes.com/inside-americas-trillion-dollar-di... --- and here on the excellence of the Warthog: https://www.wired.com/2014/12/a10-warthog-isis/ https://www.wired.com/2014/12/a10-warthog-isis/ and the excellence of the F-22 Raptor: https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-tactical/why-f-22-never-exported/ https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-tactical/why-f-22-neve...
    - QuercusMax 6y ago
      As a software engineer, I aspire to build software as well-engineered as the A-10.
    - inanutshellus 6y ago
      I once read an article about how the US spread misinformation about spectacularly expensive programs they were pretending to work on, hoping that the Russians would follow suit and waste govt money. Over the years as I have read about the F-35 and its, uh, challenges, I've wondered if it's a revenge project. ;)
- sudosysgen 6y ago
  China is not struggling because they don't have access. They paid for the Russian designs and it came with engineering support. What China is/was struggling with is the actual know-how of how to make the engines. But by all measures they've almost caught up already.
cptskippy 6y ago
Engines are one place the Chinese are lacking. The innovations in fly-by-wire we see in the Chinese knockoff of the Blackhawk was out of necessity because they lack an engine powerful enough to support a platform with hydraulic controls that meets operational requirements.

nradov 6y ago

If our adversaries actually knew everything then we would see it flying today. Obviously that isn't the case. The Chinese are still struggling to successfully copy previous generation Russian designs, which are themselves a step behind the latest US and European models in terms of efficiency and reliability.

dplavery92 6y ago
>The Chinese are still struggling to successfully copy previous generation Russian designs This is certainly not true. If anything, the Chinese are very successfully copying current generation American designs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-20 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-20 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenyang_FC-31 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenyang_FC-31
- nradov 6y ago
  Nonsense. Those are superficial copies of some aspects of the airframes. It's the engines and avionics inside that count. What is the efficiency in terms of thrust per unit of fuel burned? How many hours can they run between overhauls?
- trhway 6y ago
  looks like you didn't read your own links - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenyang_FC-31#Engines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenyang_FC-31#Engines , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-20#Engines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-20#Engines Look at those round vector controlled engines. It is Russian 4th (mostly 4+ as of today) gen engines. That is the reason Russia hasn't so far been able to build an F-22 competitor - for PAK-FA, out of the 3 key component of the 5th gen, they built body, not bad of a radar, yet they haven't been able to build a 5th gen engine as of today. China has as of today almost been able to replicate that 4th+ gen engine, yet still very far from the 5th gen. Even more - Russia has actually officially given up on building the 5th gen. They decided to go straight to the 6th gen which is supposedly all about AI/networking/sensors/drones/etc. with engines playing only secondary role. Not that they have much hopes to succeed at the 6th gen game too, it is just recognition of reality that the 5th gen F-22 level engine isn't happening in the near future and thus they need a plan B. In some sense that leaves China totally on their own when it comes to the 5th gen, and that means like at least 10 years from the current state, and by that time the air will be dominated by the AI/drones/etc. In that sense AI engineers going to work in China may be more strategically important than the Honeywell drawings :) As an example - the current drone powerhouse dominating the region - Turkey - got their drones built by a returned MIT graduate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sel%C3%A7uk_Bayraktar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sel%C3%A7uk_Bayraktar .
  - FpUser 6y ago
    >"the 5th gen F-22 level engine isn't happening in the near future and thus they need a plan B" Accordingly to online sources they are actually testing second stage 5+ gen engine for SU-57 and are hoping to deploy it sometime in 2022. Will they succeed is a different question of course.
    - trhway 6y ago
      right, and the best estimates of having a meaningful operational force is by the end of the decade: https://eurasiantimes.com/russian-su-57-fighter-soars-high-india-turkey-among-potential-buyers/ https://eurasiantimes.com/russian-su-57-fighter-soars-high-i... "The Russian military will be supplied with 76 jets by 2028, 22 of which will be operational by 2024." Even if they deliver on those estimates, i think the skies will be different in 2030-ties (imagine the thousands of Starlink like satellites managing the army of drones - each drone is easy to shoot down, yet no human carrying plane can defend itself from a large group of drones simultaneously firing beyond-visual-range missiles) Anyway, i don't believe those estimates for a lot of reasons. In particular most of the Russian new military hardware - i mean generationally new, not just modernizations - that has been shown and planned for deliveries starting in the last decade hasn't yet materialized, with the money being one of the key reasons. Another is that Russia is still not going to be able to project power anywhere beside its own vicinity, and thus will be focusing on protecting its shores which, given limited financial resources, favors as the first priority ground based advanced anti-aircraft defense and MiG-31 style approach (ie. like SU-35 with advanced radar and missiles instead of going all the way with Su-57).
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
  - grepfru_it 6y ago
    >That is the reason Russia hasn't so far been able to build an F-22 competitor The Su-57 would like to have some words with you. Granted it is a bit late to the party..
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
mint2 6y ago
Having plans versus actually manufacturing something is a big step. There’s a lot of knowledge needed that’s not in plans.
- thechao 6y ago
  Right. I have plans for a reusable Mars rocketship. It's the implementation details I'm needing some help with.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
vanattab 6y ago
>If our adversaries actually knew everything then we would see it flying today. Well maybe they know so much about our F35 design... they choose not to build them ;)
- 1cvmask 6y ago
  The F35 is an engineering disaster and a hangar queen. Meanwhile the Raptor and Warthog are the epitome of engineering excellence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairchild_Republic_A-10_Thunderbolt_II https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairchild_Republic_A-10_Thunde... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-22_Raptor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-22_Raptor Edit: Since I am being downvoted here are some facts on the universally acknowledged disastrous F-35: https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/320295-the-us-air-force-quietly-admits-the-f-35-is-a-failure https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/320295-the-us-air-force-... https://www.businessinsider.in/defense/hardware/how-the-f-35-turned-into-such-a-disaster/slidelist/21037186.cms https://www.businessinsider.in/defense/hardware/how-the-f-35... https://acqnotes.com/news/bigest-acquisition-disaster-history-f-35 https://acqnotes.com/news/bigest-acquisition-disaster-histor... https://eurasiantimes.com/inside-americas-trillion-dollar-disaster-how-the-us-f-35-jets-emerged-from-the-ashes/ https://eurasiantimes.com/inside-americas-trillion-dollar-di... --- and here on the excellence of the Warthog: https://www.wired.com/2014/12/a10-warthog-isis/ https://www.wired.com/2014/12/a10-warthog-isis/ and the excellence of the F-22 Raptor: https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-tactical/why-f-22-never-exported/ https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-tactical/why-f-22-neve...
  - QuercusMax 6y ago
    As a software engineer, I aspire to build software as well-engineered as the A-10.
  - inanutshellus 6y ago
    I once read an article about how the US spread misinformation about spectacularly expensive programs they were pretending to work on, hoping that the Russians would follow suit and waste govt money. Over the years as I have read about the F-35 and its, uh, challenges, I've wondered if it's a revenge project. ;)
sudosysgen 6y ago
China is not struggling because they don't have access. They paid for the Russian designs and it came with engineering support. What China is/was struggling with is the actual know-how of how to make the engines. But by all measures they've almost caught up already.

cptskippy 6y ago

Engines are one place the Chinese are lacking. The innovations in fly-by-wire we see in the Chinese knockoff of the Blackhawk was out of necessity because they lack an engine powerful enough to support a platform with hydraulic controls that meets operational requirements.