5 ms·

I don't really get how trends like this one (and IMO that's just the tip of the ice berg – this is companies preparing for the inevitable legislation that will

by nothis 5y ago

I don't really get how trends like this one (and IMO that's just the tip of the ice berg – this is companies preparing for the inevitable legislation that will make most forms of tracking illegal within the next 10 years) don't affect facebook or google stock. This IMO makes two scenarios likely: 1) The market is currently just dragging along, hoping this will all go away and we're really in a major ad-bubble that's about to pop. 2) Tracking... isn't that profitable after all. All the personalized tracking shit can be replaced with a simple "users who clicked on canon printer also clicked on cheap ink refill kits" type of model that gets the same results or better. Which also puts into question a lot of what FB and Google are actually doing.

bserge 5y ago
> All the personalized tracking shit can be replaced with a simple "users who clicked on canon printer also clicked on cheap ink refill kits" type of model That was how it was done for a long time. Advanced tracking was just a way to try and keep increasing revenue. Whether it worked or not, only the higher ups at these companies can tell... probably.
- laurent92 5y ago
  And as an advertiser, I confirm losing a lot of money trying to advertise, not seeing revenue. Choosing to advertise 25-34 males (in addition to being the definition of sexism/ageism) who type “Jira time tracking” (because “Jira” keyword is reserved anyway) is useless. I want to put an ad on websites that talk about Jira. And that requires no tracking at all.
  - coldcode 5y ago
    It's only a big issue if you try to advertise a specific item on a generic platform; but if you can target websites that cater to your specific business, you really don't need anything more. Of course it means ad networks lose out since they can't just target specific people, they have to only target specific websites or apps. Personally in the old days of newspaper ad's, I always wondered what the point was of anything smaller than a whole page; what is the point of a 1x1 inch ad in the midst of 200 others. Even today I ignore 99% of what's on the page other than the content.
    - jamiek88 5y ago
      Point of those ads generally is that people were looking intentionally at them for a plumber, sparkie, piano tuner, gramophone polisher, used tap shoes or what ever else newspapers used to advertise. In fact many people only bought the paper on ad day. Whole different kettle of fish.
Iv 5y ago
I wonder if we are not overestimating the value of tracking and underestimating the value that Google brings by forcing some "quality advertisement" from their clients.
- tracerbulletx 5y ago
  Google still has search intent to provide most of the value without tracking anything and it's by far the most effective thing anyways. FB still has their internal profile data.
woeirua 5y ago
Why would it affect Google's stock? Google has Android, and is pretty upfront about the fact that they're collecting literally everything you do on your phone. Android still has the largest installed user base, and is still feeding tons of info to FB. FB's stock prices hasn't changed because we haven't seen if this really impacts revenue to FB. We know that banner ads are extremely ineffective. So if FB ads are still more effective than that, they will continue to capture the lion's share of ad revenue.
- zibzab 5y ago
  Not a huge fan of Google, but have to defend them here. They have a pretty huge privacy section in android settings where you can see exactly what data they have on you and how to opt out and/or delete existing data. When you set up android, it ask you if your want in or out. You can even set up a new android device without a Gmail account and disable all Google services including Gmail and search. I don't belive you can do this with iOS.
  - sralbert 5y ago
    You can set up an iPhone without an Apple account.
    - zibzab 5y ago
      That is mainly used to rescue a device, you can't really use it as your daily phone that way. (Yes, I know there are some hacks to get around that )
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
    - Wowfunhappy 5y ago
      Although, since you won't be able to install any software or use much of the preinstalled software, I don't think it would have much utility...
  - 5y ago
dillondoyle 5y ago
'users who clicked on also clicked on' is at the core of a lot of the tracking Apple is banning in many cases. This is why Google is pushing FLOC and 'anonymous' cohorts in Chrome. This happens on every single HN thread on this topic. I'm not a total expert but there is a lot of arm chairing that's wrong. Tracking is profitable and more so than contextual for a lot of direct response in a lot of industries. Not in all cases, e.g. usually not for brand advertising. But it works. For my clients is the direct data I have - and we have extensively tried every single other option. FB is the only platform that delivers strong ROI and we use the targeting iOS blocks. And yes - it's always retorted - I know 100% the donations come from the ads, it's incredibly simple to track even as simple as making a new page or individual product only linked from that ad. So far this change is definitely effecting our ads and FB seems pretty buggy with the new ads manager changes. But they 'always find a way.' But so far it's not as bad as I originally thought it would be. Plus you can still upload offline conversion data. most purchases have full contact info. We'll see if Apple comes after that, but they would then have to go after the entire ecosystem including Visa.
ankmathur96 5y ago
Because while FB definitely doesn't like that this is happening, it will certainly cement their position. 3rd party ad services that are less tech/ML-forward are way way more reliant on the ID tracking than Facebook is, and this actually will probably cement them as the only game in town. This is a very complicated situation.

by nothis 5y ago

bserge 5y ago

> All the personalized tracking shit can be replaced with a simple "users who clicked on canon printer also clicked on cheap ink refill kits" type of model That was how it was done for a long time. Advanced tracking was just a way to try and keep increasing revenue. Whether it worked or not, only the higher ups at these companies can tell... probably.

laurent92 5y ago
And as an advertiser, I confirm losing a lot of money trying to advertise, not seeing revenue. Choosing to advertise 25-34 males (in addition to being the definition of sexism/ageism) who type “Jira time tracking” (because “Jira” keyword is reserved anyway) is useless. I want to put an ad on websites that talk about Jira. And that requires no tracking at all.
- coldcode 5y ago
  It's only a big issue if you try to advertise a specific item on a generic platform; but if you can target websites that cater to your specific business, you really don't need anything more. Of course it means ad networks lose out since they can't just target specific people, they have to only target specific websites or apps. Personally in the old days of newspaper ad's, I always wondered what the point was of anything smaller than a whole page; what is the point of a 1x1 inch ad in the midst of 200 others. Even today I ignore 99% of what's on the page other than the content.
  - jamiek88 5y ago
    Point of those ads generally is that people were looking intentionally at them for a plumber, sparkie, piano tuner, gramophone polisher, used tap shoes or what ever else newspapers used to advertise. In fact many people only bought the paper on ad day. Whole different kettle of fish.

Iv 5y ago

I wonder if we are not overestimating the value of tracking and underestimating the value that Google brings by forcing some "quality advertisement" from their clients.

tracerbulletx 5y ago
Google still has search intent to provide most of the value without tracking anything and it's by far the most effective thing anyways. FB still has their internal profile data.

woeirua 5y ago

Why would it affect Google's stock? Google has Android, and is pretty upfront about the fact that they're collecting literally everything you do on your phone. Android still has the largest installed user base, and is still feeding tons of info to FB. FB's stock prices hasn't changed because we haven't seen if this really impacts revenue to FB. We know that banner ads are extremely ineffective. So if FB ads are still more effective than that, they will continue to capture the lion's share of ad revenue.

zibzab 5y ago
Not a huge fan of Google, but have to defend them here. They have a pretty huge privacy section in android settings where you can see exactly what data they have on you and how to opt out and/or delete existing data. When you set up android, it ask you if your want in or out. You can even set up a new android device without a Gmail account and disable all Google services including Gmail and search. I don't belive you can do this with iOS.
- sralbert 5y ago
  You can set up an iPhone without an Apple account.
  - zibzab 5y ago
    That is mainly used to rescue a device, you can't really use it as your daily phone that way. (Yes, I know there are some hacks to get around that )
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - Wowfunhappy 5y ago
    Although, since you won't be able to install any software or use much of the preinstalled software, I don't think it would have much utility...
- 5y ago

dillondoyle 5y ago

'users who clicked on also clicked on' is at the core of a lot of the tracking Apple is banning in many cases. This is why Google is pushing FLOC and 'anonymous' cohorts in Chrome. This happens on every single HN thread on this topic. I'm not a total expert but there is a lot of arm chairing that's wrong. Tracking is profitable and more so than contextual for a lot of direct response in a lot of industries. Not in all cases, e.g. usually not for brand advertising. But it works. For my clients is the direct data I have - and we have extensively tried every single other option. FB is the only platform that delivers strong ROI and we use the targeting iOS blocks. And yes - it's always retorted - I know 100% the donations come from the ads, it's incredibly simple to track even as simple as making a new page or individual product only linked from that ad. So far this change is definitely effecting our ads and FB seems pretty buggy with the new ads manager changes. But they 'always find a way.' But so far it's not as bad as I originally thought it would be. Plus you can still upload offline conversion data. most purchases have full contact info. We'll see if Apple comes after that, but they would then have to go after the entire ecosystem including Visa.

ankmathur96 5y ago

Because while FB definitely doesn't like that this is happening, it will certainly cement their position. 3rd party ad services that are less tech/ML-forward are way way more reliant on the ID tracking than Facebook is, and this actually will probably cement them as the only game in town. This is a very complicated situation.