4 ms·
Why in your opinion is the lab leak so low in probability?
by neonological 5y ago
Why in your opinion is the lab leak so low in probability?
- COGlory 5y agoPrimarily Occam's razor. The total area available to coronaviruses in the wild to replicate and mutate in is orders of magnitude greater than the area available in a laboratory.
- kansface 5y agoI am not an expert in the field, but I don’t find this math convincing - I arrive at the opposite conclusion. This was not a random lab and the outbreak didn’t just start anywhere.
- raducu 5y agoBut weren't they doing that exact thing in the Wuhan laboratory -- making coronaviruses infect humanized cells(with the ACE2 receptor)? Wouldn't the fact that it started in Wuhan point the razor in the direction of lab-escape theory?
- COGlory 5y agoIt tilts the needle, yes, but there are numerous other pieces of evidence that tilt it in the other direction. Hence the 90%/10% split in my mind. But I won't fault anyone else for having a different split. I think that's reasonable.
- unanswered 5y agoThis is already answered in GP comment: a career in biology would suffer if biological research were to become more suspect to the general population, with a corresponding loss of prestige.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- COGlory 5y agoThat's my opinion?