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Well, I can relate to that. Most of 2020 we were focused on fighting the aftermath of the crisis. Now that things slowly are getting back to normal, at least i

Well, I can relate to that. Most of 2020 we were focused on fighting the aftermath of the crisis. Now that things slowly are getting back to normal, at least in some Western countries, our focus shifts to the origins. I was also very skeptical in the beginning about the escape theory tbh. But after reading a couple of pieces I’m opening up to the possibility.

unanswered 5y ago
And how does this justify moral superiority to those of us who understood from the beginning that the lab hypothesis was the most likely? Or was that not true until you decided it was true?
- roenxi 5y ago
  People aren't interested in whether you were right or not, what matters is the probability you will be right in the future. A body wandering around saying "I was right" is likely to get ignored, because people assume they were unreasonable and lucky, and therefore unlikely to be a good source of information in the future. Besides, it doesn't really matter. Lab accidents were going to happen and are going to happen regardless of where COVID came from. China as a nation isn't exactly responsible and whatever people do next will be more about geopolitics than about details like the virus' genesis. And a natural origin can't be ruled out either.
  - yonaguska 5y ago
    > Lab accidents were going to happen and are going to happen regardless of where COVID came from. China as a nation isn't exactly responsible and whatever people do next will be more about geopolitics than about details like the virus' genesis. The Wuhan lab where this supposedly originated from was a BSL-4 lab. These aren't accidents, this is negligence. The lab had safety problems and wasn't meeting BSL-4 requirements. Chinese researchers at the lab raised concerns about lack of qualified technicians, and lack of resources. This is negligence. If the Wuhan BSL-4 lab was the source of Covid-19, this is absolutely the fault of China. No one is blaming Chinese people or Chinese citizens for this, but China as a government is responsible. Furthermore, it does matter. Finding the source matters. If nothing changes, and root causes aren't fixed, it will happen again. Just dismissing this as an inevitability is a dangerous attitude.
    - roenxi 5y ago
      Pandemics are inevitable, we have a near miss every decade or so. Some of them will be near hits whether or not COVID came from a lab. COVID doesn't even seem to be that bad vs. some of the ones that occurred naturally - look at AIDS. I dunno, what do you think someone outside China can do if it turns out to be a lab leak? If anyone had any ability to influence China's policy, stopping COVID is meaningless compared to efforts promoting peace in the South China Sea which is a much bigger threat. The next big war will be devastating in a way that makes COVID look like the good old days.
  - jcims 5y ago
    >People aren't interested in whether you were right or not, what matters is the probability you will be right in the future. All of this is speculative re: COVID right now, but in the general case how would (royal) you know the probability of someone being right in the future if you don't investigate why they were right in the first place? Or, maybe more importantly why you were wrong? For example, if Fox News and Alex Jones come out in 4 hours after the first outbreak screaming "IT ESCAPED FROM A LAB IN WUHAN!!!", does that in any way influence what the scientific and medical communities are likely to explore? If you're directing resources for the WHO and you're 50/50 thinking of sending investigators to the lab or the wet markets, does this bias your decision at all? My guess is yes.
- moralestapia 5y ago
  I remember a year ago you couldn't even MENTION the possibility of COVID having an artificial origin without being labelled a crazy conspiracy theorist. Funny how "smart and educated" people can be so dumb and close-minded in reality.
- dang 5y ago
  Please don't post in the flamewar style to HN. This is a noticeable step in the wrong direction. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

unanswered 5y ago

And how does this justify moral superiority to those of us who understood from the beginning that the lab hypothesis was the most likely? Or was that not true until you decided it was true?

roenxi 5y ago
People aren't interested in whether you were right or not, what matters is the probability you will be right in the future. A body wandering around saying "I was right" is likely to get ignored, because people assume they were unreasonable and lucky, and therefore unlikely to be a good source of information in the future. Besides, it doesn't really matter. Lab accidents were going to happen and are going to happen regardless of where COVID came from. China as a nation isn't exactly responsible and whatever people do next will be more about geopolitics than about details like the virus' genesis. And a natural origin can't be ruled out either.
- yonaguska 5y ago
  > Lab accidents were going to happen and are going to happen regardless of where COVID came from. China as a nation isn't exactly responsible and whatever people do next will be more about geopolitics than about details like the virus' genesis. The Wuhan lab where this supposedly originated from was a BSL-4 lab. These aren't accidents, this is negligence. The lab had safety problems and wasn't meeting BSL-4 requirements. Chinese researchers at the lab raised concerns about lack of qualified technicians, and lack of resources. This is negligence. If the Wuhan BSL-4 lab was the source of Covid-19, this is absolutely the fault of China. No one is blaming Chinese people or Chinese citizens for this, but China as a government is responsible. Furthermore, it does matter. Finding the source matters. If nothing changes, and root causes aren't fixed, it will happen again. Just dismissing this as an inevitability is a dangerous attitude.
  - roenxi 5y ago
    Pandemics are inevitable, we have a near miss every decade or so. Some of them will be near hits whether or not COVID came from a lab. COVID doesn't even seem to be that bad vs. some of the ones that occurred naturally - look at AIDS. I dunno, what do you think someone outside China can do if it turns out to be a lab leak? If anyone had any ability to influence China's policy, stopping COVID is meaningless compared to efforts promoting peace in the South China Sea which is a much bigger threat. The next big war will be devastating in a way that makes COVID look like the good old days.
- jcims 5y ago
  >People aren't interested in whether you were right or not, what matters is the probability you will be right in the future. All of this is speculative re: COVID right now, but in the general case how would (royal) you know the probability of someone being right in the future if you don't investigate why they were right in the first place? Or, maybe more importantly why you were wrong? For example, if Fox News and Alex Jones come out in 4 hours after the first outbreak screaming "IT ESCAPED FROM A LAB IN WUHAN!!!", does that in any way influence what the scientific and medical communities are likely to explore? If you're directing resources for the WHO and you're 50/50 thinking of sending investigators to the lab or the wet markets, does this bias your decision at all? My guess is yes.
moralestapia 5y ago
I remember a year ago you couldn't even MENTION the possibility of COVID having an artificial origin without being labelled a crazy conspiracy theorist. Funny how "smart and educated" people can be so dumb and close-minded in reality.
dang 5y ago
Please don't post in the flamewar style to HN. This is a noticeable step in the wrong direction. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html