3 ms·

Agreed, but it would be kind of cool to have an Apollo-style program for real AGI. I would feel pretty comfortable placing a bet that with (essentially) unlimit

Agreed, but it would be kind of cool to have an Apollo-style program for real AGI. I would feel pretty comfortable placing a bet that with (essentially) unlimited funding and the resources of the US govt, a 2030 goal for real deal AGI is possible. Like, if it’s possible at all with anything remotely within our current technology set, we’ll know by 2030. Too bad we (as a country and somewhat as a species) don’t really do ‘big’ things anymore.

ineedasername 5y ago
I'm not sure that even unlimited funding would get us there anytime soon. Human mental health is a very difficult & intractable problem to solve in part because we have a very poor understanding of the closest thing we currently have to AGI-- ourselves. I wouldn't expect the human race to be capable of producing AGI that isn't batshit insane before we fill in some gaps of knowledge there first.
joe_the_user 5y ago
I like the idea but I have describe how hard I'd see being. With things like either the flight to the moon or the atomic bomb, the basic principles involved were established and the engineering process to accomplish the task needed to be worked out (which isn't to deny these were huge, difficult projects). Unlike moon shots and Manhattan Projects, large bureaucracies have poor record for automating discovery. Add to that, that nearly everyone is lost on the question of how to get to AGI (if it's not by brute-force training). And those few people who have an opinion on the subject don't necessarily agree with each other and speak in generalities that can't really be implemented. Having 1000 or 10,000 people brain storming seems as plausible as anything but the problem keeping such pure research at all motivated and directed is itself very hard. The process actually is kind of like ... a university. In fact, universities are already where creative research tends to happen. But our universities, universities across the world, have evolved to keep researchers on a shorter and shorter leash. To get this unlimited speculation, you'd have to undo this - and lots people have an interest in keeping things this way. And it's worth considering that wingnuts and crazy people are very interested in AGI along with very smart people - sometimes you get someone who's all three things, even. So managing 1000 people trying to get to AGI would a serious challenge no matter how you cut it. Plus, the results of AGI might not be what anyone but it's creator(s) want, if that. So there are some hurdles.

ineedasername 5y ago

I'm not sure that even unlimited funding would get us there anytime soon. Human mental health is a very difficult & intractable problem to solve in part because we have a very poor understanding of the closest thing we currently have to AGI-- ourselves. I wouldn't expect the human race to be capable of producing AGI that isn't batshit insane before we fill in some gaps of knowledge there first.

joe_the_user 5y ago

I like the idea but I have describe how hard I'd see being. With things like either the flight to the moon or the atomic bomb, the basic principles involved were established and the engineering process to accomplish the task needed to be worked out (which isn't to deny these were huge, difficult projects). Unlike moon shots and Manhattan Projects, large bureaucracies have poor record for automating discovery. Add to that, that nearly everyone is lost on the question of how to get to AGI (if it's not by brute-force training). And those few people who have an opinion on the subject don't necessarily agree with each other and speak in generalities that can't really be implemented. Having 1000 or 10,000 people brain storming seems as plausible as anything but the problem keeping such pure research at all motivated and directed is itself very hard. The process actually is kind of like ... a university. In fact, universities are already where creative research tends to happen. But our universities, universities across the world, have evolved to keep researchers on a shorter and shorter leash. To get this unlimited speculation, you'd have to undo this - and lots people have an interest in keeping things this way. And it's worth considering that wingnuts and crazy people are very interested in AGI along with very smart people - sometimes you get someone who's all three things, even. So managing 1000 people trying to get to AGI would a serious challenge no matter how you cut it. Plus, the results of AGI might not be what anyone but it's creator(s) want, if that. So there are some hurdles.