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Whenever a topic about something that could potentially destroy humanity comes up (say, climate issues), there is always some comment that makes a reasonable ar

Whenever a topic about something that could potentially destroy humanity comes up (say, climate issues), there is always some comment that makes a reasonable argument of why things are not as bad as they seem. This never happens when prions are the topic.

medstrom 5y ago
You jinxed it, so I'll be the "some comment": prions won't spread everywhere all at once, so humanity will probably self-isolate in at least a few prion-free clusters.
piker 5y ago
Actually there is a positive anecdote often cited. The Fore people of New Guinea engaged in ritual cannibalism which lead to the propagation of prions across generations. When they stopped, the generations of disease also stopped. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuru_(disease) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuru_(disease)
- joshuaissac 5y ago
  The Fora people even developed a prion that confers resistance to kuru: > researchers [...] discovered a naturally occurring variant of a prion protein in a population from Papua New Guinea that confers strong resistance to kuru > This community [...] has developed their own biologically unique response [...] this genetic evolution has happened in a matter of decades
giantg2 5y ago
Actually, there is some good news. Many types of prions diseases do not spread from animals to humans (so far). There have been some studies around this with CWD, but also Scapie has been around for hundreds or even thousands of years and never made the jump. Even in areas with CWD, we see that herd numbers do typically rebound. It's believed that there is some genetic factor that prevents the onset of the symptoms, like the body's proteins are less likely to fold in that way, so you only accumulate what you eat, or that the body can clean up the misfolded proteins. So it's not like it would wipe out everyone. I think I remember reading that some people are also researching prion treatments with some limited sucess. I would imagine they would come up with something even more quickly if there was a epidemic type of situation, similar to how medical researchers around the world focused on covid.
- throwaway316943 5y ago
  Not to be a doomer but there are scenarios where neither genetic variation nor research would solve the problem. The correct mix of virality, incubation and lethality would do it. Pneumonic plague is terrifyingly close. I wish there was a bigger interest and investment in biology, I think it’s the only viable path forward for humanity.
  - giantg2 5y ago
    I was just discussing prions. Other pathogens do seem to present a bigger risk. I don't think anything would have 100% kill rate. Even weaponized microbes have like 99.8% or something. That still leaves about 16 million people. Plus there's all those preppers with their bunkers, some uncontacted tribes, people who live in isolated areas. Then it becomes more of a matter of how to organize, do they have the knowledge to survive in those types of conditions, etc. The species will survive, but it will be a very different world.
dcolkitt 5y ago
The simplest counterpoint to prion cataclysm fear is that it hasn't happened yet. That implies a low chance that it'll happen anytime in the near future. There's no evidence that any significant human population has ever been wiped out by prions at any point in the history of the species. Heck, we haven't even observed widespread (>10% infected) prion disease in any species. At least with something like climate change, there's the fact that post-industrial activity is doing something different than pre-industrial history. But this reasoning doesn't hold for prion cataclysm. It's more like asteroid apocalypse. Yes it could happen, but statistically it's not something we have to worry about on a civilizational timeframe. I don't see any justification for why humanity in 2021 is courting prion disaster to a greater degree than it was in 2000 BC. Animal husbandry has existed for fifteen thousand years. Maybe globalization would spread a prion outbreak faster. But the point is we've never even observed localized prion collapse. If prions were that dangerous, there should already be regional areas that have transformed into total no-go zones.
- dennis_jeeves 5y ago
  >I don't see any justification for why humanity in 2021 is courting prion disaster to a greater degree than it was in 2000 BC. Because the 'scientific' community need to keep their jobs. You know they too have mortgages to pay... So... point being there is endless stream of fear mongering (some of which ends up being true) to justify their existence.
- XorNot 5y ago
  Conversely industrialized meat production is relatively recent, and so the volume of prion's being introduced into the environment is potentially much higher then the rate at which they are degrading naturally, not to mention the degree of regional cross-mixing of sources. Prion contamination can now be shipped around the world in about 24 hours, where it can enter new populations much more easily.
  - csharptwdec19 5y ago
    > regional cross-mixing of sources. This is the part that worries me. If something happened like this even 300-400 years ago, it would probably just wipe out that village.
marcosdumay 5y ago
Well, prion diseases are very rare in humans (or at least their transmission is rare), and there is no evolutive pressure to create a super-prion that can infect more people, like happens with other pathogens. Thus, the most likely situation is that it will continue to be very rare until we are able to change it into virtually non-existent by technology. They are a really scary thing, but it's a meteor strike style of scary, nobody really expects it to happen before we can deal with it.
userulluipeste 5y ago
Prion caused disease is indeed terrifying on individual level but, from its impact over the species' survival, it isn't that menacing. The decay takes decades, which is enough for breeding the next generation. Human life expectancy may get shorter, which sucks, of course, but humans lived shorter lives for most of their history. So no, it's not that bad. Even assuming that the entire human population will get infected from young age with no way to avoid it, it won't be that bad. It would come with a bit of adjustment, like having to raise kids sooner because the luxury to postpone (for life enjoyment or other pursuits) won't be there, but things will go on.

medstrom 5y ago

You jinxed it, so I'll be the "some comment": prions won't spread everywhere all at once, so humanity will probably self-isolate in at least a few prion-free clusters.

piker 5y ago

Actually there is a positive anecdote often cited. The Fore people of New Guinea engaged in ritual cannibalism which lead to the propagation of prions across generations. When they stopped, the generations of disease also stopped. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuru_(disease) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuru_(disease)

joshuaissac 5y ago
The Fora people even developed a prion that confers resistance to kuru: > researchers [...] discovered a naturally occurring variant of a prion protein in a population from Papua New Guinea that confers strong resistance to kuru > This community [...] has developed their own biologically unique response [...] this genetic evolution has happened in a matter of decades

giantg2 5y ago

Actually, there is some good news. Many types of prions diseases do not spread from animals to humans (so far). There have been some studies around this with CWD, but also Scapie has been around for hundreds or even thousands of years and never made the jump. Even in areas with CWD, we see that herd numbers do typically rebound. It's believed that there is some genetic factor that prevents the onset of the symptoms, like the body's proteins are less likely to fold in that way, so you only accumulate what you eat, or that the body can clean up the misfolded proteins. So it's not like it would wipe out everyone. I think I remember reading that some people are also researching prion treatments with some limited sucess. I would imagine they would come up with something even more quickly if there was a epidemic type of situation, similar to how medical researchers around the world focused on covid.

throwaway316943 5y ago
Not to be a doomer but there are scenarios where neither genetic variation nor research would solve the problem. The correct mix of virality, incubation and lethality would do it. Pneumonic plague is terrifyingly close. I wish there was a bigger interest and investment in biology, I think it’s the only viable path forward for humanity.
- giantg2 5y ago
  I was just discussing prions. Other pathogens do seem to present a bigger risk. I don't think anything would have 100% kill rate. Even weaponized microbes have like 99.8% or something. That still leaves about 16 million people. Plus there's all those preppers with their bunkers, some uncontacted tribes, people who live in isolated areas. Then it becomes more of a matter of how to organize, do they have the knowledge to survive in those types of conditions, etc. The species will survive, but it will be a very different world.

dcolkitt 5y ago

The simplest counterpoint to prion cataclysm fear is that it hasn't happened yet. That implies a low chance that it'll happen anytime in the near future. There's no evidence that any significant human population has ever been wiped out by prions at any point in the history of the species. Heck, we haven't even observed widespread (>10% infected) prion disease in any species. At least with something like climate change, there's the fact that post-industrial activity is doing something different than pre-industrial history. But this reasoning doesn't hold for prion cataclysm. It's more like asteroid apocalypse. Yes it could happen, but statistically it's not something we have to worry about on a civilizational timeframe. I don't see any justification for why humanity in 2021 is courting prion disaster to a greater degree than it was in 2000 BC. Animal husbandry has existed for fifteen thousand years. Maybe globalization would spread a prion outbreak faster. But the point is we've never even observed localized prion collapse. If prions were that dangerous, there should already be regional areas that have transformed into total no-go zones.

dennis_jeeves 5y ago
>I don't see any justification for why humanity in 2021 is courting prion disaster to a greater degree than it was in 2000 BC. Because the 'scientific' community need to keep their jobs. You know they too have mortgages to pay... So... point being there is endless stream of fear mongering (some of which ends up being true) to justify their existence.
XorNot 5y ago
Conversely industrialized meat production is relatively recent, and so the volume of prion's being introduced into the environment is potentially much higher then the rate at which they are degrading naturally, not to mention the degree of regional cross-mixing of sources. Prion contamination can now be shipped around the world in about 24 hours, where it can enter new populations much more easily.
- csharptwdec19 5y ago
  > regional cross-mixing of sources. This is the part that worries me. If something happened like this even 300-400 years ago, it would probably just wipe out that village.

marcosdumay 5y ago

Well, prion diseases are very rare in humans (or at least their transmission is rare), and there is no evolutive pressure to create a super-prion that can infect more people, like happens with other pathogens. Thus, the most likely situation is that it will continue to be very rare until we are able to change it into virtually non-existent by technology. They are a really scary thing, but it's a meteor strike style of scary, nobody really expects it to happen before we can deal with it.

userulluipeste 5y ago

Prion caused disease is indeed terrifying on individual level but, from its impact over the species' survival, it isn't that menacing. The decay takes decades, which is enough for breeding the next generation. Human life expectancy may get shorter, which sucks, of course, but humans lived shorter lives for most of their history. So no, it's not that bad. Even assuming that the entire human population will get infected from young age with no way to avoid it, it won't be that bad. It would come with a bit of adjustment, like having to raise kids sooner because the luxury to postpone (for life enjoyment or other pursuits) won't be there, but things will go on.