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One aspect of markets for relatively new technologies is that there is a dynamic related to the practicality and affordability of products and social momentum f
by ilaksh 6y ago
One aspect of markets for relatively new technologies is that there is a dynamic related to the practicality and affordability of products and social momentum for new product categories. I suspect that things like patents sometimes play a role there also.
For example, e-ink displays. Personally I think the idea of having a photo or framed image on a wall that can display an effectively infinite number of different pictures, another one every day, is an extremely attractive proposition compared to the low-tech standard of leaving the same image there for years.
But it looks to me that the pricing for the display modules is holding that market back. Maybe because of a patent or something and not enough competition. But also, it COULD become a big thing at any time for a wealthy demographic, especially for the smaller ones say the size of a normal sheet of paper. But that depends on whether it becomes trendy. Which is partially about luck and what individual people do and how many friends they have.
- robinsoh 6y ago> But it looks to me that the pricing for the display modules is holding that market back. Maybe because of a patent or something and not enough competition. Nope. It is volume. In the display industry, if you're selling less than a million panels a month, then you're a niche exotic industry. E Ink is probably not even reaching 50% of that. Think about this way. E Ink in the display market is unfortunately the equivalent of a sports car in the car market. It'll only become cheap if it can defeat or be competitive with LCD/OLED displays and step up to reasonable volumes, and that's unlikely to happen just due to the physics of electrophoretics.
- ilaksh 6y agoJust consider the batting average for the mass of people who predicted over the decades that technology X or technology Y would never be affordable.
- robinsoh 6y agoTheir batting average is much better than you may think. Most technologies fail out. Remember the tonnes of people who fell prey to OLPC'S Jepsen claims about transflective being the next big thing. There's this funny thing called survivorship bias that causes people to misunderstand "batting average". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
- ilaksh 6y agoThat wasn't just about transflective, that was about OLPC. And that's the one example you can give? I know what a batting average is. Your comments are insulting in a backhanded way. Everything new from the car, airplane, computers, phones, OLED, has had people like you claiming it was never going to be economically viable.