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> Among the people there are non-Japanese I find it quaint the idea that where will be a concept of "Japanese" and "non-Japanese" in 1300 years from now. If y
by bmmayer1 5y ago
> Among the people there are non-Japanese
I find it quaint the idea that where will be a concept of "Japanese" and "non-Japanese" in 1300 years from now.
If you assume the rate of progress is fixed (which it isn't, as we know, it accelerates), you can get some sense of how farfetched this idea is. 1300 years ago was the year 721 CE. There was no unified Japan then[1] (nor likely even a concept of "Japanese" identity as most imperial practices were modeled from China), nor was there a "Europe," a "Mexico," or a "South Africa." There certainly wasn't the notion of national identity in the modern sense, as such concepts would have been alien to village-dwellers living under feudal lords.
After many cycles of political consolidation and fracturing, it is unlikely in 1300 years there will be a unified Japan; but, more likely, the entire pan-Asian sphere will have been unified (probably under China), if not under the purview of a world government. Sino-Japanese languages will probably mix Australasian language groups, borrowing heavily from English, creating a dialect that would sound as alien to us as Chaucer does now[2].
In 1300 years, global warming will render a good portion of the planet uninhabitable without artificial climate controls, and new parts of the planet never before populated will experience a flourishing of new development. Major cities will develop in hitherto uninhabited land in Siberia, Canada and elsewhere, probably creating new power centers we can't even begin to contemplate. New nations will rise and challenge dominant superpowers for position. There will be at least one more major global war in the next millennium, which could result in a complete shift of power, or nuclear winter or annihilation of a good % of humanity.
And they think some stones are going to survive.
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nara_period https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nara_period
[2]https://mypoeticside.com/poets/geoffrey-chaucer-poems https://mypoeticside.com/poets/geoffrey-chaucer-poems
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- jacquesm 5y agoOh, the stones will survive. It's just that nobody will care about those particular stones. And your observation about the long term effects of our actions (which themselves are accelerating in frequency and impact) on climate, the world in general and human structures and concepts is spot on, it is a special kind of delusional that declaring a couple of stones special will have a long term effect on those particular stones. At the same time, it did lead to some interesting insights so in a way the value has already been delivered, even if the stones are lost tomorrow.
- ansible 5y ago> In 1300 years, global warming will render a good portion of the planet uninhabitable without artificial climate controls... The way things are going, that is looking like less than 100 years. The increasing pollution and degradation of the biosphere, rising sea levels and more will drastically change civilization. And even if those things don't take us out, the robot uprising / Singularity / whatever is highly likely to completely destroy civilization, and in the best-case scenario, replace it with something better.
- majormajor 5y ago> If you assume the rate of progress is fixed (which it isn't, as we know, it accelerates), you can get some sense of how farfetched this idea is. 1300 years ago was the year 721 CE. There was no unified Japan then[1] (nor likely even a concept of "Japanese" identity as most imperial practices were modeled from China), nor was there a "Europe," a "Mexico," or a "South Africa." There certainly wasn't the notion of national identity in the modern sense, as such concepts would have been alien to village-dwellers living under feudal lords. The rate of progress can decrease, and even go negative! Consider the concepts of empire and identity from 700 years before your year 721 CE that were entirely replaced by smaller, less-advanced ones. Though I would also be surprised if anything like Japan, China, the US, or Europe as we know them today are recognizable in 1300 years, whether because of advance or collapse (or both!). But some traditions I expect to survive. They'd just be identified as part of whatever the new resulting cultures are that inherited them.
- qsort 5y agoI mean, it's fun to speculate, but anyone who claims to have any idea of what's going to happen literally more than a thousand years from now is just full of crap. Even predicting 20 years ahead is almost impossible. 1300 is just fiction.
- JJMcJ 5y ago> a "Europe" Closest was probably the concept of Christendom, the part of the world unified by the Christian religion. Remember both the Catholic/Orthodox and Catholic/Protestant splits were well in the future.
- d_silin 5y agoUnder exponential model assumptions, in 1300 years humanity will spread into neighbouring star systems, with Earth most likely to be depopulated and left as a nature preserve.
- marcosdumay 5y ago> In 1300 years, global warming will render a good portion of the planet uninhabitable without artificial climate controls The idea of predicting the effects of global warming 1000 years in the future is really absurd. You are understating your point here, at our current rate of consumption, our fossil fuels will last for 200 years at (a highly inflated) maximum. Global warming as we know it is meaningless after that time period. Odds are there will be some crisis about too much consumption of atmospheric CO2 before that.
- smiley1437 5y ago> And they think some stones are going to survive. Perhaps the point is to foster long-term thinking, a bit like the ideas of "The Long Now" foundation https://longnow.org/ https://longnow.org/