11 ms·

Global electric vehicles sales grew 41% in 2020

49 points by hhs 6y ago

zeku 6y ago
That's with covid issues as well! Very encouraging.
darkwizard42 6y ago
Full article is here: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2021/trends-and-developments-in-electric-vehicle-markets#abstract https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2021/trends-an... Seems like there is a real opportunity to increase EV adoption through some level of government subsidy... which will likely pay great dividends in the future. All that being said, because it is going to be good later and not right now, I expect this policy change to never happen.
- eloff 6y ago
  There are currently a lot of government subsidies for electric vehicles in various countries, and I expect this will continue.
  - itsoktocry 6y ago
    >and I expect this will continue. I expect it to end sooner than later, for two reasons: first, where I'm from (Canada), the vast majority of fuel surcharges go towards road maintenance. That revenue disappears with EVs under current policy. Second, the vast majority of EV subsidies are going to, essentially, rich people, who in most other aspects of their lives have disproportionate carbon footprints. It's not progressive policy.
    - eloff 6y ago
      I'll argue otherwise (I'm also from Canada) because countries are getting more aggressive in their battle against climate change, including enacting carbon taxes, and even banning sales of new ICE vehicles past certain cutoff dates. > the vast majority of fuel surcharges go towards road maintenance. That revenue disappears with EVs under current policy. I don't believe that's true. All taxes go into a mixed pool and are put towards the budget as a whole. It would be weird to "color" tax revenue from certain sources and earmark it only for specific uses
- itsoktocry 6y ago
  >Seems like there is a real opportunity to increase EV adoption through some level of government subsidy. If all of the claimed benefits of EVs are real (better for the environment, simpler and cheaper to maintain), why should we subsidize them at all? Perhaps we tax ICE vehicles based on emissions, but spending tax money to encourage people to buy more vehicles seems like an odd policy. EVs are cleaner, but they aren't clean, and cars in general have externalities.
  - blandflakes 6y ago
    We could at least stop subsidizing ICE, then.
  - sp332 6y ago
    Subsidizing them will make the cost of new EV cars more competitive with used ICE cars, which is what someone is much more likely to buy now. Also, subsidizing car sales indirectly funds development of more attractive EV car tech, which will increase people's desire to buy them in the next few years instead of having to wait decades for their personal killer feature.
  - kewrkewm53 6y ago
    Taxing ICE vehicles hurts poor people who can't afford buying new EV even with subsidies, while subsidizing EV's doesn't. So I would argue it's more sustainable from a social perspective than a punitive tax. Eventually used EV's will end up being bought by poorer folks as well, as long as the wealthy buy them first. Besides, nothing you buy is exactly clean. At least vehicles provide real value by allowing people to move around, unlike your average cheap fashion item which is bought because some people just enjoy shopping, and soon forgotten after minimum use. Thus, typically purchasing a car is ethical compared to purchasing something you really don't need.
    - maherbeg 6y ago
      Tax ICE luxury cars. If you're purchasing a $50k vehicle, then you likely could afford a tax that subsidizes non-luxury EV vehicles.
    - 6y ago
- blandflakes 6y ago
  The federal tax credit in the US is nothing to sneeze at! I'd prefer investment in better infrastructure (in the form of more charging locations) to remove or at least reduce the fear people have about range.
cschneid 6y ago
For people w/ an EV, I have a question How do you do longer trips? I live in Colorado and go on multi day "camping" road trips. I'd be able to charge, but what's the time spent at a charging station along the way? How would I find a charger in the middle of nowhere Utah or Wyoming? Often even gas stations are pretty few and far between when you're not on the more main roads. It's only maybe 5% of my total miles, but it's the fun ones. In-town is a solved problem for sure, but seems less so for long distance, and often back-road travel.
- fassssst 6y ago
  Rent a gas car for those trips.
  - AnIdiotOnTheNet 6y ago
    Indeed. I would advise the same for people who consider buying a truck on the premise that every once in a while it would be handy to have for hauling something.
- base698 6y ago
  I had a Tesla Model S for about a year. Had several 6-8 hour trips which would require one or two charges and quite often day trips which required one stop. It helps to find charging stops with a Starbucks or something close by. Then you can just get a bite to eat and it's done when you get back. The charging stops more like a regular gas station I'd just walk slower and make sure to use the bathroom and browse every isle. It adds about triple the time for a stop. Not sure about non supercharger capable EVs. With a Tesla it's pretty close to same experience.
  - mprovost 6y ago
    This smells like an opportunity to build some charging stations that provide more to do than a gas station. You could build a diner, with an arcade or mini golf or some attraction to keep people busy (and take more of their money) for a few hours while their cars are charging.
roel_v 6y ago
Where are we on charging-from-underneath-the-car? I live in a city center, where I can't hook up to my own charging unit, curbside units are scarce and a pain in the ass having to plug in your car every time anyway (my neighbour's charging cable is always across the sidewalk, an accident waiting to happen, especially if more people would start doing this) The obvious (to me) future is small-ish in-ground base stations in the center of all parking spots, with 'prongs' that come out and automatically plug into a car parked on top of it, presumably with some sort of communication between car and charging plate, and some way to 'guide' the prongs so that you don't have to park exactly in the right spot. There are technical challenges wrt reliability etc, but I wouldn't think those to be unsurmountable. Still I haven't heard of any advances in this field in years. Is that still happening or is manually plugging in the way of the future?
- kaybe 6y ago
  Curbside parking in city centers should go away. So much space is given to those tons of metal blocking the sidewalk and the streets, taking freedom to move from pedestrians, cyclists and also moving cars. Underground parking and parking further away from the city center can take its place.
  - fy20 6y ago
    In my city all new apartment buildings (here that's 5-7 floors) have underground parking with at least 1 parking space for every unit. I'm not sure if that's by law, but it makes good sense. The parking spaces cost an extra €20,000 on top of the apartment price, so it makes good business sense for the developer to do this too :-) Opposite me (literally 10m from my window, across the street) there is a new development being built that used to be a dirt patch of private parking for an office. It's going to be a mixture of office, retail and residential units. For the past year it's been fun to watch them digging out the plot - around the size of a medium supermarket - to 20m or so below ground level, which will be used for parking.
- JshWright 6y ago
  The "prong based" approach is never going to happen, in my opinion. Inductive charging is already a thing for EVs (it's less efficient, and not at all widespread), and my guess is that where we'll see investment.
david422 6y ago
I'm planning on my next car being electric. Just waiting for my current car to die. Wonder how many others are in a similar situation.
- CamelCaseName 6y ago
  Personally, I will always buy what's most economical and convenient. I tried really hard to skew the numbers in favor of a Tesla back in 2017/2018 when rebates were all the range and I still couldn't swing it. Maybe it's a different story now that the used car market has tightened though.
  - gameswithgo 6y ago
    Just invent a torque utility function for yourself to make it economical now, then you are good to go =)
  - rootusrootus 6y ago
    Teslas are expensive, but the compliance EVs are quite good now and the economics are more compelling. We pay about $0.01/mile to fuel our Bolt. I had a Tesla P3D and it was a little more expensive, but still nowhere near the cost of gas, which is about $0.10/mile. Just in fuel savings alone it was an easy decision for us. We leased our Bolt, because the price was great ($6K for 3 years at 15K miles/year). When we replace it in a couple years, we will buy something similar, maybe another Bolt (GM really did a great job with this car IMO), and keep it until the wheels fall off. If something happens to my pickup anytime soon I may buy another gas-powered one, because I don't think EVs are likely to be good RV-towing machines for a number of years yet, but I don't expect to ever buy another ICEV daily driver.
    - david422 6y ago
      How do you like the Bolt? That's the car I've had my eye on - economical and has range. And I've heard the latest model (2020?) fixed some issues with the seats.
jchrisa 6y ago
It looks like the curve may be a similar shape for electric bikes and scooters. IMHO an e-bike is the fastest way to get kids across town to school, it's interesting to watch the world discover this. I found this micromobility market analysis. It'd be fun if someone who does market sizing compared it to the electric car study: https://micromobility.io/blog/2021/4/26/the-market-for-micromobility https://micromobility.io/blog/2021/4/26/the-market-for-micro...
baybal2 6y ago
What do you consider an EV? For some, surely even a electric bycicle counts Some, would not even count smaller EVs like Wuling MiniEV, classifying them as LSEVs, counting them separately from something like Tesla model S.
- milkytron 6y ago
  The report had four categories, none of which seem to include bicycles. Electric bicycle counts would be interesting though, and I hope more people start adopting them for their transportation needs (or non-electric bikes for that matter).
stevencorona 6y ago
As part of the 41% that recently swapped out their "gas guzzler" Porsche for a Tesla M3, I can confirm that they're ready for prime time. The Tesla Supercharging experience has been pretty great. The route planner calculates charging stops automatically and you only need to wait 5-10 mins to top off ~100 miles before you're back on the road. Without the Superchargers, though, the experience would be pretty terrible - how is the current charging station grid for non-Tesla EVs?
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  > how is the current charging station grid for non-Tesla EVs? Acceptable, but different. More stations, fewer chargers per station. We haven't had any difficulty, the experience is largely similar to our Tesla. We do have to swipe a card (or use Apple Pay, which is what I do) on the charger before the electrons start flowing, but aside from that it doesn't really change our road trip experience.
sharpneli 6y ago
> (including plug-in hybrids and fully electric models) This includes plugin hybrids, so it's not that 10% of cars sold in Europe are BEV's. Majority of those are actually plugin hybrids. And this already gives us like 90% of the environmental benefits. Sure BEV is more environementally friendly. But with PHEV's we can get more total amount of electrical kilometers driven on the road. And one only needs to be able to charge at home, no need to care about charging infrastructure yet. But when it improves one can use it just fine. Basically you drive your daily commute with electricity, but when you go to summer cabin then you can use gasoline as usual. This is an example of Finland, registrations for last month (march 2021): 6197 pure gasoline cars (includes non chargeable hybrids) 2121 Plugin-hybrids (gasoline) 1139 diesel 789 BEV 78 Plugin-hybrids (diesel) At this rate it won't take many years anymore until pretty much all the new cars sold here will be chargeable, even if some of em still have ICEs inside them too. I'm just about to change my winter heating socket into a charging outlet, and move into plugin hybrid. It just makes so much sense here. Because due to high gas taxes when driving with electricity it costs around 20-30% of what it costs to drive with gasoline. So it's simply a no brainer in economical sense.
- tonyedgecombe 6y ago
  Yes, all the while battery supplies are constrained spreading what available capacity we have over plugins makes a lot of sense.
maxharris 6y ago
I searched through the full report: There were six mentions of Tesla. * just two mentions of General Motors * one mention of Volkswagen, Ford, Volvo, etc. * only one mention of Hyundai about its hydrogen trucks * zero mentions of Toyota, BMW, FCA, Nissan, Subaru, Mazda It's true that I'm looking at too small a sample here to draw a conclusion just from this report alone. But given the fact that Tesla has been investing in electric vehicle development for the better part of two decades while every other automaker was resting on their laurels, I think it's fair to add it to the mountain of evidence that Tesla is well on its way to being the Apple of this decade. I know that legacy automakers will eventually produce some good EVs, and I'm glad that they are finally appearing to take this seriously. However, I think that many of them will not survive the coming wave of consolidation. In general they are far too indebted, too dependent on marketing, and lack the vertical integration required to deliver affordable EVs in volume. I think the Apple analogy is especially apt: since the iPhone was unveiled, Apple has earned the majority of the profits in the smartphone market. There are good reasons to think that this effect will be even more pronounced for Tesla, given the fact that it is developing large-scale manufacturing capacity on each continent (whereas every iPhone is only made in China). Add its massive growth in the energy storage and leadership in autonomous vehicles and the full picture becomes even clearer. (Yes, I have a large position in $TSLA. No, I'm quite certain that this post will not move the stock even a cent. My point is only that in a few years time, Tesla will dominate multiple industries, and the auto market will be just one of them.)
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  > Tesla is well on its way to being the Apple of this decade I owned a Tesla, I would not take this bet. Apple makes opinionated decisions, similar to Tesla, but they also make a quality product. Tesla struggles mightily with that. People are surprisingly loyal when it comes to car purchases, and Tesla's lack of reliability will come back to bite them in the ass. There are too many good options coming down the pipe. Heck, the Ford Mach-E all by itself is the epitome of why Tesla won't be the next Apple. It is a better Model Y than the Model Y. Ford really hit that one out of the park IMO, and that's just their opening salvo. As more of the real car companies start bringing out real cars, just powered by electricity, it's going to be great.
jsight 6y ago
I think people are going to be surprised by how quickly this transition happens once it takes hold. This growth rate really isn't new, its just that the baseline percentages are large enough now that people are starting to notice. In another year or two when 1/20 new cars are EVs, people will start to realize that the benefits often do outweigh the drawbacks. Its really hard to tell what the upper bound will be after that.

49 points by hhs 6y ago

zeku 6y ago

That's with covid issues as well! Very encouraging.

Full article is here: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2021/trends-and-developments-in-electric-vehicle-markets#abstract https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2021/trends-an... Seems like there is a real opportunity to increase EV adoption through some level of government subsidy... which will likely pay great dividends in the future. All that being said, because it is going to be good later and not right now, I expect this policy change to never happen.

eloff 6y ago
There are currently a lot of government subsidies for electric vehicles in various countries, and I expect this will continue.
- itsoktocry 6y ago
  >and I expect this will continue. I expect it to end sooner than later, for two reasons: first, where I'm from (Canada), the vast majority of fuel surcharges go towards road maintenance. That revenue disappears with EVs under current policy. Second, the vast majority of EV subsidies are going to, essentially, rich people, who in most other aspects of their lives have disproportionate carbon footprints. It's not progressive policy.
  - eloff 6y ago
    I'll argue otherwise (I'm also from Canada) because countries are getting more aggressive in their battle against climate change, including enacting carbon taxes, and even banning sales of new ICE vehicles past certain cutoff dates. > the vast majority of fuel surcharges go towards road maintenance. That revenue disappears with EVs under current policy. I don't believe that's true. All taxes go into a mixed pool and are put towards the budget as a whole. It would be weird to "color" tax revenue from certain sources and earmark it only for specific uses
itsoktocry 6y ago
>Seems like there is a real opportunity to increase EV adoption through some level of government subsidy. If all of the claimed benefits of EVs are real (better for the environment, simpler and cheaper to maintain), why should we subsidize them at all? Perhaps we tax ICE vehicles based on emissions, but spending tax money to encourage people to buy more vehicles seems like an odd policy. EVs are cleaner, but they aren't clean, and cars in general have externalities.
- blandflakes 6y ago
  We could at least stop subsidizing ICE, then.
- sp332 6y ago
  Subsidizing them will make the cost of new EV cars more competitive with used ICE cars, which is what someone is much more likely to buy now. Also, subsidizing car sales indirectly funds development of more attractive EV car tech, which will increase people's desire to buy them in the next few years instead of having to wait decades for their personal killer feature.
- kewrkewm53 6y ago
  Taxing ICE vehicles hurts poor people who can't afford buying new EV even with subsidies, while subsidizing EV's doesn't. So I would argue it's more sustainable from a social perspective than a punitive tax. Eventually used EV's will end up being bought by poorer folks as well, as long as the wealthy buy them first. Besides, nothing you buy is exactly clean. At least vehicles provide real value by allowing people to move around, unlike your average cheap fashion item which is bought because some people just enjoy shopping, and soon forgotten after minimum use. Thus, typically purchasing a car is ethical compared to purchasing something you really don't need.
  - maherbeg 6y ago
    Tax ICE luxury cars. If you're purchasing a $50k vehicle, then you likely could afford a tax that subsidizes non-luxury EV vehicles.
  - 6y ago
blandflakes 6y ago
The federal tax credit in the US is nothing to sneeze at! I'd prefer investment in better infrastructure (in the form of more charging locations) to remove or at least reduce the fear people have about range.

cschneid 6y ago

For people w/ an EV, I have a question How do you do longer trips? I live in Colorado and go on multi day "camping" road trips. I'd be able to charge, but what's the time spent at a charging station along the way? How would I find a charger in the middle of nowhere Utah or Wyoming? Often even gas stations are pretty few and far between when you're not on the more main roads. It's only maybe 5% of my total miles, but it's the fun ones. In-town is a solved problem for sure, but seems less so for long distance, and often back-road travel.

fassssst 6y ago
Rent a gas car for those trips.
- AnIdiotOnTheNet 6y ago
  Indeed. I would advise the same for people who consider buying a truck on the premise that every once in a while it would be handy to have for hauling something.
base698 6y ago
I had a Tesla Model S for about a year. Had several 6-8 hour trips which would require one or two charges and quite often day trips which required one stop. It helps to find charging stops with a Starbucks or something close by. Then you can just get a bite to eat and it's done when you get back. The charging stops more like a regular gas station I'd just walk slower and make sure to use the bathroom and browse every isle. It adds about triple the time for a stop. Not sure about non supercharger capable EVs. With a Tesla it's pretty close to same experience.
- mprovost 6y ago
  This smells like an opportunity to build some charging stations that provide more to do than a gas station. You could build a diner, with an arcade or mini golf or some attraction to keep people busy (and take more of their money) for a few hours while their cars are charging.

roel_v 6y ago

Where are we on charging-from-underneath-the-car? I live in a city center, where I can't hook up to my own charging unit, curbside units are scarce and a pain in the ass having to plug in your car every time anyway (my neighbour's charging cable is always across the sidewalk, an accident waiting to happen, especially if more people would start doing this) The obvious (to me) future is small-ish in-ground base stations in the center of all parking spots, with 'prongs' that come out and automatically plug into a car parked on top of it, presumably with some sort of communication between car and charging plate, and some way to 'guide' the prongs so that you don't have to park exactly in the right spot. There are technical challenges wrt reliability etc, but I wouldn't think those to be unsurmountable. Still I haven't heard of any advances in this field in years. Is that still happening or is manually plugging in the way of the future?

kaybe 6y ago
Curbside parking in city centers should go away. So much space is given to those tons of metal blocking the sidewalk and the streets, taking freedom to move from pedestrians, cyclists and also moving cars. Underground parking and parking further away from the city center can take its place.
- fy20 6y ago
  In my city all new apartment buildings (here that's 5-7 floors) have underground parking with at least 1 parking space for every unit. I'm not sure if that's by law, but it makes good sense. The parking spaces cost an extra €20,000 on top of the apartment price, so it makes good business sense for the developer to do this too :-) Opposite me (literally 10m from my window, across the street) there is a new development being built that used to be a dirt patch of private parking for an office. It's going to be a mixture of office, retail and residential units. For the past year it's been fun to watch them digging out the plot - around the size of a medium supermarket - to 20m or so below ground level, which will be used for parking.
JshWright 6y ago
The "prong based" approach is never going to happen, in my opinion. Inductive charging is already a thing for EVs (it's less efficient, and not at all widespread), and my guess is that where we'll see investment.

david422 6y ago

I'm planning on my next car being electric. Just waiting for my current car to die. Wonder how many others are in a similar situation.

CamelCaseName 6y ago
Personally, I will always buy what's most economical and convenient. I tried really hard to skew the numbers in favor of a Tesla back in 2017/2018 when rebates were all the range and I still couldn't swing it. Maybe it's a different story now that the used car market has tightened though.
- gameswithgo 6y ago
  Just invent a torque utility function for yourself to make it economical now, then you are good to go =)
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  Teslas are expensive, but the compliance EVs are quite good now and the economics are more compelling. We pay about $0.01/mile to fuel our Bolt. I had a Tesla P3D and it was a little more expensive, but still nowhere near the cost of gas, which is about $0.10/mile. Just in fuel savings alone it was an easy decision for us. We leased our Bolt, because the price was great ($6K for 3 years at 15K miles/year). When we replace it in a couple years, we will buy something similar, maybe another Bolt (GM really did a great job with this car IMO), and keep it until the wheels fall off. If something happens to my pickup anytime soon I may buy another gas-powered one, because I don't think EVs are likely to be good RV-towing machines for a number of years yet, but I don't expect to ever buy another ICEV daily driver.
  - david422 6y ago
    How do you like the Bolt? That's the car I've had my eye on - economical and has range. And I've heard the latest model (2020?) fixed some issues with the seats.

jchrisa 6y ago

It looks like the curve may be a similar shape for electric bikes and scooters. IMHO an e-bike is the fastest way to get kids across town to school, it's interesting to watch the world discover this. I found this micromobility market analysis. It'd be fun if someone who does market sizing compared it to the electric car study: https://micromobility.io/blog/2021/4/26/the-market-for-micromobility https://micromobility.io/blog/2021/4/26/the-market-for-micro...

baybal2 6y ago

What do you consider an EV? For some, surely even a electric bycicle counts Some, would not even count smaller EVs like Wuling MiniEV, classifying them as LSEVs, counting them separately from something like Tesla model S.

milkytron 6y ago
The report had four categories, none of which seem to include bicycles. Electric bicycle counts would be interesting though, and I hope more people start adopting them for their transportation needs (or non-electric bikes for that matter).

stevencorona 6y ago

As part of the 41% that recently swapped out their "gas guzzler" Porsche for a Tesla M3, I can confirm that they're ready for prime time. The Tesla Supercharging experience has been pretty great. The route planner calculates charging stops automatically and you only need to wait 5-10 mins to top off ~100 miles before you're back on the road. Without the Superchargers, though, the experience would be pretty terrible - how is the current charging station grid for non-Tesla EVs?

rootusrootus 6y ago
> how is the current charging station grid for non-Tesla EVs? Acceptable, but different. More stations, fewer chargers per station. We haven't had any difficulty, the experience is largely similar to our Tesla. We do have to swipe a card (or use Apple Pay, which is what I do) on the charger before the electrons start flowing, but aside from that it doesn't really change our road trip experience.

sharpneli 6y ago

> (including plug-in hybrids and fully electric models) This includes plugin hybrids, so it's not that 10% of cars sold in Europe are BEV's. Majority of those are actually plugin hybrids. And this already gives us like 90% of the environmental benefits. Sure BEV is more environementally friendly. But with PHEV's we can get more total amount of electrical kilometers driven on the road. And one only needs to be able to charge at home, no need to care about charging infrastructure yet. But when it improves one can use it just fine. Basically you drive your daily commute with electricity, but when you go to summer cabin then you can use gasoline as usual. This is an example of Finland, registrations for last month (march 2021): 6197 pure gasoline cars (includes non chargeable hybrids) 2121 Plugin-hybrids (gasoline) 1139 diesel 789 BEV 78 Plugin-hybrids (diesel) At this rate it won't take many years anymore until pretty much all the new cars sold here will be chargeable, even if some of em still have ICEs inside them too. I'm just about to change my winter heating socket into a charging outlet, and move into plugin hybrid. It just makes so much sense here. Because due to high gas taxes when driving with electricity it costs around 20-30% of what it costs to drive with gasoline. So it's simply a no brainer in economical sense.

tonyedgecombe 6y ago
Yes, all the while battery supplies are constrained spreading what available capacity we have over plugins makes a lot of sense.

maxharris 6y ago

I searched through the full report: There were six mentions of Tesla. * just two mentions of General Motors * one mention of Volkswagen, Ford, Volvo, etc. * only one mention of Hyundai about its hydrogen trucks * zero mentions of Toyota, BMW, FCA, Nissan, Subaru, Mazda It's true that I'm looking at too small a sample here to draw a conclusion just from this report alone. But given the fact that Tesla has been investing in electric vehicle development for the better part of two decades while every other automaker was resting on their laurels, I think it's fair to add it to the mountain of evidence that Tesla is well on its way to being the Apple of this decade. I know that legacy automakers will eventually produce some good EVs, and I'm glad that they are finally appearing to take this seriously. However, I think that many of them will not survive the coming wave of consolidation. In general they are far too indebted, too dependent on marketing, and lack the vertical integration required to deliver affordable EVs in volume. I think the Apple analogy is especially apt: since the iPhone was unveiled, Apple has earned the majority of the profits in the smartphone market. There are good reasons to think that this effect will be even more pronounced for Tesla, given the fact that it is developing large-scale manufacturing capacity on each continent (whereas every iPhone is only made in China). Add its massive growth in the energy storage and leadership in autonomous vehicles and the full picture becomes even clearer. (Yes, I have a large position in $TSLA. No, I'm quite certain that this post will not move the stock even a cent. My point is only that in a few years time, Tesla will dominate multiple industries, and the auto market will be just one of them.)

rootusrootus 6y ago
> Tesla is well on its way to being the Apple of this decade I owned a Tesla, I would not take this bet. Apple makes opinionated decisions, similar to Tesla, but they also make a quality product. Tesla struggles mightily with that. People are surprisingly loyal when it comes to car purchases, and Tesla's lack of reliability will come back to bite them in the ass. There are too many good options coming down the pipe. Heck, the Ford Mach-E all by itself is the epitome of why Tesla won't be the next Apple. It is a better Model Y than the Model Y. Ford really hit that one out of the park IMO, and that's just their opening salvo. As more of the real car companies start bringing out real cars, just powered by electricity, it's going to be great.

jsight 6y ago

I think people are going to be surprised by how quickly this transition happens once it takes hold. This growth rate really isn't new, its just that the baseline percentages are large enough now that people are starting to notice. In another year or two when 1/20 new cars are EVs, people will start to realize that the benefits often do outweigh the drawbacks. Its really hard to tell what the upper bound will be after that.