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A fear I had about winding down industry, shipping, and services for COVID-19 was that getting it all up and running harmoniously would be unmanageable. The in

A fear I had about winding down industry, shipping, and services for COVID-19 was that getting it all up and running harmoniously would be unmanageable. The incredible interconnectedness of all industry would cause problems. Say one node wants to start again, but it depends on 5 other input nodes that also want to start again. Those 5 cannot begin without their own connected nodes. And so like an apocalyptic version of trying to restart a global power grid you would have cascades of failures, rubber-banding demand and supply, and so on.

colechristensen 5y ago
Inefficiency brings up business opportunity. Some industry can’t realign quickly? Make a bet that a new business will be nimble enough to deliver faster and take their market share.
- omegaworks 5y ago
  I guess but that upstart better be willing to bet a massive amount of capital on creating that infrastructure only to potentially see its advantage evaporate as the supply lines normalize.
- macintux 5y ago
  An industry like shipping doesn’t seem a likely target for disruption. It would take a massive investment to make even the smallest dent in the problem, and it’s mostly an analog system.
  - acchow 5y ago
    Imagine Amazon couldn't restock items and it hit their top line significantly.
  - colechristensen 5y ago
    Then manufacture locally and sell what can’t get a place on a ship. The lack of shipping capacity creates business opportunities and not just for building ships or ports.
- rob74 5y ago
  Yay, that's exactly the thinking that got us into this mess - trying to squeeze every bit of efficiency out of the supply chain has spread every step of production far and wide (I already mentioned the global journey a pair of jeans is going on before being sold for next-to-nothing in a mall near you: http://competendo.net/en/A_Pair_of_Jeans http://competendo.net/en/A_Pair_of_Jeans) - which was possible until now because of cheap logistics, but the current situation reveals how fragile this really is. Maybe what we need is not more efficiency, but more common sense...
  - colechristensen 5y ago
    But there’s always some potential mess and fragility regardless of your model... robustness comes from the ability to react to failure i.e. to take advantage of an opportunity like this shipping crunch.
  - sokoloff 5y ago
    Many consumers will buy from a more efficient supply chain because the price to them (for goods in stock) is a few percent lower. They don’t have nearly as powerful incentive to overpay for years in hopes of having more stable supply after a pandemic-induced global disruption event (especially since there’s no guarantee that those excess costs would actually deliver the stability; they might just be paid as wages, profits, additional advertising, and/or business expansion).
  - devmunchies 5y ago
    > trying to squeeze every bit of efficiency out of the supply chain has spread every step of production far and wide efficiency did that? not price? why would American companies have moved manufacturing overseas if it were cheaper at home? Nothing efficient about catching fish in alaska, sending them to china for canning, and then shipping them back to a california grocery store. if expensive shipping becomes the norm, I would then expect local manufacturing to boom.
    - skrtskrt 5y ago
      I think the commenter is more referring to just-in-time supply chain management where companies run on much thinner buffers of time and physical stock.
twic 5y ago
Logistical black start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_start https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_start
- m463 5y ago
  Well that's a fascinating page. The trade-off between "might need" and "will need" is fascinating to think of (and pay for).
- tgbugs 5y ago
  And here I am worrying about how to bootstrap programming language implementations. "What would happen if maven central suddenly disappeared from the face of the earth?" seems positively quaint.
JoeAltmaier 5y ago
Just getting a petroleum cracking plant restarted takes days and careful orchestration by an experienced Engineer. How much more complicated is our global shipping network! It seems that everybody randomly turning the dials they can reach is not a good system.
- juancb 5y ago
  The invisible hand will provide.
  - vagrantJin 5y ago
    Say our economic theories, God willing.

colechristensen 5y ago

Inefficiency brings up business opportunity. Some industry can’t realign quickly? Make a bet that a new business will be nimble enough to deliver faster and take their market share.

omegaworks 5y ago
I guess but that upstart better be willing to bet a massive amount of capital on creating that infrastructure only to potentially see its advantage evaporate as the supply lines normalize.
macintux 5y ago
An industry like shipping doesn’t seem a likely target for disruption. It would take a massive investment to make even the smallest dent in the problem, and it’s mostly an analog system.
- acchow 5y ago
  Imagine Amazon couldn't restock items and it hit their top line significantly.
- colechristensen 5y ago
  Then manufacture locally and sell what can’t get a place on a ship. The lack of shipping capacity creates business opportunities and not just for building ships or ports.
rob74 5y ago
Yay, that's exactly the thinking that got us into this mess - trying to squeeze every bit of efficiency out of the supply chain has spread every step of production far and wide (I already mentioned the global journey a pair of jeans is going on before being sold for next-to-nothing in a mall near you: http://competendo.net/en/A_Pair_of_Jeans http://competendo.net/en/A_Pair_of_Jeans) - which was possible until now because of cheap logistics, but the current situation reveals how fragile this really is. Maybe what we need is not more efficiency, but more common sense...
- colechristensen 5y ago
  But there’s always some potential mess and fragility regardless of your model... robustness comes from the ability to react to failure i.e. to take advantage of an opportunity like this shipping crunch.
- sokoloff 5y ago
  Many consumers will buy from a more efficient supply chain because the price to them (for goods in stock) is a few percent lower. They don’t have nearly as powerful incentive to overpay for years in hopes of having more stable supply after a pandemic-induced global disruption event (especially since there’s no guarantee that those excess costs would actually deliver the stability; they might just be paid as wages, profits, additional advertising, and/or business expansion).
- devmunchies 5y ago
  > trying to squeeze every bit of efficiency out of the supply chain has spread every step of production far and wide efficiency did that? not price? why would American companies have moved manufacturing overseas if it were cheaper at home? Nothing efficient about catching fish in alaska, sending them to china for canning, and then shipping them back to a california grocery store. if expensive shipping becomes the norm, I would then expect local manufacturing to boom.
  - skrtskrt 5y ago
    I think the commenter is more referring to just-in-time supply chain management where companies run on much thinner buffers of time and physical stock.

twic 5y ago

Logistical black start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_start https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_start

m463 5y ago
Well that's a fascinating page. The trade-off between "might need" and "will need" is fascinating to think of (and pay for).
tgbugs 5y ago
And here I am worrying about how to bootstrap programming language implementations. "What would happen if maven central suddenly disappeared from the face of the earth?" seems positively quaint.

JoeAltmaier 5y ago

Just getting a petroleum cracking plant restarted takes days and careful orchestration by an experienced Engineer. How much more complicated is our global shipping network! It seems that everybody randomly turning the dials they can reach is not a good system.

juancb 5y ago
The invisible hand will provide.
- vagrantJin 5y ago
  Say our economic theories, God willing.