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The price of ALL assets have skyrocketed this year, including collectibles like this. I collect comics and the prices in 2021 have gone bananas. I can't afford

The price of ALL assets have skyrocketed this year, including collectibles like this. I collect comics and the prices in 2021 have gone bananas. I can't afford to collect anymore. Blame the Fed for creating asset price inflation including stocks, housing, collectibles, etc. This is why income inequality has exploded, because everyone with assets like stocks have seen a huge increase in their wealth, and people without any assets which are the lower income people get left behind.

kilbuz 5y ago
Can confirm that mechanical wristwatches have experienced the same. Some MSRP $20k watches can resell for over $100k currently. Pokemon cards, watches, comics, video games, NFTs, houses, yachts, all are very hard to buy right now, even for the wealthy (because of bidding wars and limited supply). Lots of money sloshing around.
- pjbk 5y ago
  Same for guitars in those money brackets.
- PragmaticPulp 5y ago
  I don't know many people into trading collectibles, but the few I've talked to have no illusions that this trend will continue forever. They're gambling that they can cash in on short-term market euphoria and hope that they can get out before it all collapses. Who knows what will actually happen. It's interesting to see collectible companies cashing in by manufacturing more "rare" collectibles out of thin air at a rapid pace.
- ryanlol 5y ago
  > Some MSRP $20k watches can resell for over $100k currently. Which? The base model Nautilus retails for $30k and the prices only skyrocketed because it was discontinued.
- NhanH 5y ago
  Out of curiosity, can you list a few watches that sell for more than 100k starting from 20k MSRP? Even the daytona and silver snoopy are not having that big of a jump
  - hellbannedguy 5y ago
    I haven't seen that big of a jump in any watch these last few years. A few Rolex models are being sold 2x their MSRP. I believe Rolex, like Nike, are throttling down machines in order to keep the charade going? Giving middle class, and wealthy people a check, when most didn't need it didn't help much either. I heard a few guys mention, now I will get that Sub with my check. Rolex is a nonprofit entity. They stopped selling parts, or technical manuals, to Independant Watchrepair Shops. So if you ever buy a new Rolex, the minute the warranty goes, you are essentially forced to send it back to the factory at outrageous prices. I still repair Rolexes, but it takes longer because I have to hunt down parts.
  - ping_pong 5y ago
    Designer bags have gotten extremely expensive. I'm talking about the $8000-10000 bags. The thing to do is to buy an expensive bag, use it for a few years, and then sell it for a profit, so basically people are now looking at is as an investment.
    - ryanlol 5y ago
      It’s funny too because Birkins have been really easy to buy during the past year, I got several while touring europe during peak-COVID because nobody was picking up their orders.
  - conro1108 5y ago
    Patek nautilus 5711/1A-010 retails for around 30k and seems to be going for ~120k these days. FP Journe chronometre bleu commands a similar premium, retailing for around 20k and selling for 80k.
    - ryanlol 5y ago
- aphextron 5y ago
  >Can confirm that mechanical wristwatches have experienced the same. Yep. I'd been wanting to get a used Submariner for years now. Looked up prices the other day and they are literally double this time last year.
seibelj 5y ago
I don’t understand why interest rates are zero and we are still paying able-bodied people not to work. But hey - I work in tech startups, so keep the ridiculous easy money flowing so all the rich can get richer shrug
- oivey 5y ago
  Corollary: With the interest rates so low, I don’t understand how wages are so low that collecting unemployment is more attractive than working.
  - seibelj 5y ago
    If you can make half to 3/4 your salary doing whatever you want, or an extra 25 to 50% by working 40 hours a week, a lot of people don't feel the need to work. Also an argument against UBI. If people have their bills paid, many don't feel like working.
    - Majromax 5y ago
      You're overestimating the generosity of unemployment benefits, and you're underestimating people's work ethic when given unrestricted (strings-free) transfers. In the first instance, unemployment benefits do not typically replace "half to 3/4 of your salary," and under ordinary circumstances US benefits are greatly limited in duration. Those for whom the "half to 3/4 of salary" replacement is more correct are also those who started on the low end of the salary scale, and I daresay the working poor should not be the subject of your ire. On the second point, your assumption -- while common enough -- has not been replicated in modern-day UBI trials. On the balance, those have shown somewhere between no change and small positive changes to work intention over the existing set of social benefits, which on one hand tend to require demonstrating job-search effort but on the other hand tend to be withdrawn beginning with a low earned salary level. In particular, I have seen no modern-day research demonstrating that providing a fixed benefit creates an indolent class.
    - biggestdummy 5y ago
      We (in the US, at least) are paying able bodied people not to work, precisely in order to have them not work. The policy being that it is better for the entire society if all the laid-off service economy people (retail, hospitality, entertainment, restaurants, etc.) stay home. If we did not pay them, they would find other work, which would require them to leave home. Which would be counter to the public health policies. Staying home is the _point_ of the policy, not a side-effect.
sdorf 5y ago
Is this rate of inflation computed anywhere? I'm curious what the actual figure is and how income has been diluted over the course of ongoing events.
- ping_pong 5y ago
  No one keeps track of inflation for anything other than consumer goods. Inflation is floating around 1-2% according to the Fed. They conveniently don't track things like fuel prices or food because they are too "volatile". And things like asset inflation simply isn't considered in the equation. But the reality is that upper income people have 401ks with stocks in them and lower income people live paycheck to paycheck. Since 2008 when the Fed start QE, the stock market has gone through the room, including companies like FANG. If you're not exposed to the stock market or housing market, then you're fucked.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    > They conveniently don't track things like fuel prices or food because they are too "volatile". Factually false. Its not very hard to search for that information. Just type "CPI Food" or "CPI Fuel". US Food prices: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIFABSL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIFABSL US Fuel prices: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/motor-fuel.htm https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/motor-fuel.htm CPI is the consumer price index, which tracks a variety of prices as an estimate of inflation. The sub-categories are tracked individually, and then averaged together into the overall CPI number. Even if you distrust the Fed entirely, we can use CBOE futures (the futures market), which has historical performance on a variety of food commodities (pork bellies, orange juice) and fuel (sweet light crude oil). CBOE is literally the free market and non-government. --------- Fuel prices are down over the past decade due to the uptick in US oil production. Remember $4+ / gallon US averages? (and $6+ in high cost places like Hawaii?) COVID19 has also decimated oil prices. Other goods have gone up in price, but fuel prices are really, really low right now, pulling inflation lower.
    - ping_pong 5y ago
      What I meant is that Fed Policy is dictated by Core PCE, so they don't look at that when setting rates. So it doesn't matter if fuel prices skyrocket or drop, it's not anything that gets the headlines. The only thing you hear about is Core PCE or Core CPI. If no policy is enacted by regular CPI, then who cares. The Fed only sees no inflation regardless of the inflation we see all around us.
specialp 5y ago
Inflation is low measured by the CPI and that is because most of the things measured in that index are made by people that are NOT increasing their wealth. It is a large transfer of wealth to the more wealthy who then benefit by lower tax rates for these capital gains.
- frockington1 5y ago
  The index doesn't include housing, food, and energy either as those are considered 'too volatile'. It's no longer targeting what anybody actually consumes anymore
  - dahfizz 5y ago
    I don't know where you heard this, but it is not true. The CPI tracks rent/housing, food, energy, tuition, medical expenses, and everything else that people seem to think are excluded. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm#Question_10 https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm#Question_1...
  - ChrisLomont 5y ago
    BLS tracks many inflation values, including those for housing, food, and energy, and they have done so for over 100 years. You're confusing core CPI, which excludes them so analysts can see the difference, and the CPI values as reported generally in the media, which do include housing, food, and energy. The most reported CPI is CPI-U (and is called CPI in the press), which is the CPI for urban consumers, which includes housing, food, and energy, and most comparable to historical and inflation values from other countries. But BLS tracks many forms. If you want to learn about this read https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
  - ping_pong 5y ago
    Some comments below keep saying that CPI measures things like food and energy prices. What we really mean is that Fed policy is dictated by the Core PCE rate, which specifically excludes food and energy prices. So sure, the PCE and CPI measures energy and food prices and other volatiles prices, but *FED POLICY is dictated by the CORE rates*, which specifically exclude those volatile components. So de facto, no one (ie. the Fed) doesn't care about energy or food price inflation.
snarf21 5y ago
I really don't know how the Fed will unwind all this nonsense. It is sad that the Fed had to step in because we can't get the fiscal policy changes we need.
- pjbk 5y ago
  I think that, more often than not, they are part of the problem? Like favoring policies that promote spending and debt instead of long term investment and savings, in particular in those areas where it is really necessary.
- retrac 5y ago
  They cannot. At this point, it probably cannot be reversed or even held where it is, without jacking up taxes and spending a great deal on transfers of various kinds. (Reducing the cost of healthcare and education for the poor to both improve their lot and for long-term benefits from a healthier and more educated workforce, or funding long-term infrastructure construction projects, ideally with well-paid working class jobs, etc.) Up here in Canada we chose to pretty much just throw money at the working and middle class, especially with children, through the creation and then expansion of refundable low-income tax credits and a refundable credit for those with children. Now comes to almost $1500 per household average if I recall, and that has barely held the line on the natural rapid trend towards wealth inequality after the 2008 crash. And even then, still not equally or very well. It has probably not sucked to be in the bottom 10% of poor people in Canada this much, since before the war. The price of housing and food being most of that.
- totalZero 5y ago
  The Fed is the source of the problem. They purchase assets to prevent those assets from declining, and encourage consumer behavior that exposes citizens to economic risk. Remember Greenspan extolling the virtues of tapping into your home equity? Or more recently, Bernanke describing QE as a permanent tool? Last year, Yellen even suggested that Congress should revisit the rules around Fed purchases of equities. The Fed also encourages fiscal policy that reinforces a widening wealth gap and perpetuates moral hazards. We live in a society where the "experts" repeatedly push the notion that governments should stay out of growing sectors and inject life into collapsing sectors. Contrast this with what China does, where they back new enterprises in growing sectors while allowing deadwood firms to go under in lethargic sectors. [0] We in the USA have bailed out automakers that can't keep up with their foreign competition. We have bailed out banks that were too stupid to avoid buying billions of dollars of junk. We have even bailed out airlines during a period when business and international travel are at a deep nadir. Yet we find it difficult to spur new growth in the digital economy, whether by enabling competition against Big Tech or by investing in the infrastructure that supports semiconductor fabrication. Don't look to the Fed for a solution. [0] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-04/china-tells-inefficient-firms-to-toughen-up-or-prepare-to-fail https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-04/china-tel...
wufufufu 5y ago
I think of Bitcoin as a hail mary attempt to fix the inequality caused by central banking. I got a lot of flak for saying that I would trade the environmental damage done by bitcoin for negating central banking in another thread, but I believe that wealth inequality is the biggest humanitarian problem we face.
- teachingassist 5y ago
  I don't see that Bitcoin has any hope of solving wealth inequality. If anything, it's a mechanism to entrench it. Up to now: 1. only a fraction of a minority of the population have gained wealth from Bitcoin, and 2. those people had wealth enough to buy sufficient Bitcoin in the first place.
  - wmf 5y ago
    With 60,000x gains, you didn't need to buy much Bitcoin to become rich. Of course, winning lottery tickets have even better odds but they're not solving inequality either. An argument has been made that "elites" were "brainwashed by the system" to believe that crypto would fail and thus they never bought in. Instead, "outsiders" bought crypto and may one day eclipse the old elites. However, crypto's "outsider" early adopters were mostly middle-class techies not working-class people. So yeah, Bitcoin is still not solving anything.
    - chrisco255 5y ago
      Yeah, if you were in on the ground floor and if you had conviction not to sell once you 10x or 100x. Few people can make that claim. But meanwhile there have been several other crypto projects that have cropped up that have seen life-changing gains and are actually built on sustainable, value-adding platforms (Ethereum, Uniswap, Synthetix, Aave, etc).
    - ChainOfFools 5y ago
      > winning lottery tickets have even better odds but they're not solving inequality either. lotteries are cancer and I'm in no way a supporter of them (except to acknowledge they may be the best answer to a problem that has no good solutions), but the model does work like a vice tax, in that a substantial fraction of ticket proceeds go toward various social and investment programs. the prizes only consume 20-70% of the revenue (specific fraction depends on the game).
ljf 5y ago
I homebrew, and getting hold of corny kegs at reasonable prices has been hard this year here in the UK. 2019 is was 3 for £100 delivered, and even cheaper if you could buy direct from somewhere. This year even 2nd hand they are £65 plus, though new are still £85ish if you can find them. It's been a funny year for hobbies!
- kevinmchugh 5y ago
  Corny prices were creeping up for a while since the obsolete soda kegs got scarce a while ago. I haven't brewed in years, so idk how that's changed lately
  - ljf 5y ago
    In 2019 you could by 10 plus in the USA for 25 dollars a keg, plus shipping. Even cheaper if you were lucky. That translated into about £35 a keg here from a cheap homebrew shop, though many charged closer to £50 for the good ones. Now the prices are just higher. Not sure if supply has dried up, or the same supply and more buyers but all the homebrew shops I use have had brilliant years for profits.
jvreagan 5y ago
Baseball cards are in the same boat in terms of demand, although the prices for most are not increasing that much. At least in the last few months, and in certain areas of the country. I've gone from selling a few cards from my hall-of-famer collection per year to multiple people asking to pay for my entire collection. And people are asking whether I have football, basketball, and hockey cards. Which has literally never happened before.
- kadabra9 5y ago
  Sports cards in general have gotten to the point of absurdity. Grown men fighting each other in the aisles of Walmart trying to clear the shelves of NBA cards. The Michael Jordan PSA 10 went from $100k, to $370k to over $700k very rapidly, and has since declined back to around 300k or so. People are buying retail boxes from scalpers for like 5x, just purely on hype and FOMO. As someone whose been into cards before the covid meltdown, this has all been wild.
cbmuser 5y ago
> Blame the Fed for creating asset price inflation including stocks, housing, collectibles, etc. Isn’t the FED just following government orders and isn’t the government elected by the people?
- bcrosby95 5y ago
  No. The FED is "supposed" to be independent from the government and do what it thinks is best. But over the past 20 years it feels like they have been increasingly politicized. I'm not sure to what extent it has modified their decision making though.
- actusual 5y ago
  In theory, no. The Federal Reserve has a mandate from congress to achieve full employment and stable prices, but can do so how they see fit. Their actions need not be ratified by the executive branch. The board of governors are also appointed for 14 year terms.
markus_zhang 5y ago
A few weeks ago I checked the price of the black lotus card and OMG...
- snypher 5y ago
  Around $100k in 2018 and around $400k now if mtgprice.com is reliable.
  - markus_zhang 5y ago
    yeah that's crazy. I'm never into cards and only read about it in the excellent reddit blogger patches765. https://www.reddit.com/r/patches765/comments/5isji2/intelligent_gaming_index/ https://www.reddit.com/r/patches765/comments/5isji2/intellig... BTW his blogs are really of top quality and I can't help reading through to deep night.
freeFromGoog 5y ago
But guys Bitcoin is worthless! /s In time it will be obvious why an alternative to USD is needed. (And hopefully one of the shitcoins can find a low cost, decentralized, secure, fast way to transfer money so Bitcoin can copy it)
uses 5y ago
It would be hard to claim that quantitative easing and stimulus has "nothing" to do with asset prices but surely the biggest change in the past year has been the incredible shift in spending habits. White collar workers have had way fewer expenses (work-from-home) and way less lifestyle-based things to spend their discretionary income on. No vacations, no dining out, no new clothes etc. People have been at home and looking back into old hobbies. Money flowing into collectibles and other alternative investments has been a straightforward result of that.
- Grazester 5y ago
  Bingo. I no longer spend $150 on commuting to work a month plus buying lunch. I spent some of that now on games for a console I had as a kid but could not afford to buy a whole lot of games for. In the past 2 years some games went up some 100% or more in price. I bought a game 6 months ago for $90 I see listings for it on ebay for $150. Its pretty insane.
  - hnlmorg 5y ago
    Never take ebay listings as a guide. Always look at past sales instead. The reason is you get a lot of chancers on ebay listing items at inflated prices on Buy It Now with the hope that someone rich enough and desperate enough will happily pay the higher cost. But more often than not, the higher Buy It Now listings time out and get re-listed over and over again. The real market value of games is seen in the auctions and Facebook retro groups (literally the only reason I have a Facebook account is for collecting retro computer parts and games. If you find the right group you can get some pretty good deals).
    - Grazester 5y ago
      I stated ebay because it was where I bought the game originally. I usually use https://www.pricecharting.com/ https://www.pricecharting.com/ to check the trends and make sure I am not overpaying. The games I want aren't available on facebook. People now know their worth. You get more common games that discs aren't even worth it as coasters to me. I have mostly given up them.
f430 5y ago
this bubble will end badly
pfranz 5y ago
Is there any reporting or other insight on this? My first intuition is that services are way down because of Covid and the money for people with stable jobs is being redirecting elsewhere inflating the cost of collectibles, savings, investment, and other goods mixed with distribution and manufacturing slowdowns worldwide. Construction is inflated because the cost of materials have gone way up due to ongoing shipping reductions and factory closures due to Covid. Housing prices are inflated (in places where people want to live) because of long-term bad housing policy and NIMBYism causing slow and the wrong kind of new construction. WFH and eviction bans are likely causing a shift in housing demand. I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed has some blame. I think there's been a belated reckoning since 2008. But it's a pandemic that has lasted over a year now and there are a bunch of second-order effects out there.
- ping_pong 5y ago
  Housing prices are high because the stock market is high and interest rates are rock bottom. The higher the stock market goes and the lower interest rates go, the more house prices are juiced. Anyone without exposure to the stock market will never be able to afford a house, ever. That's where the income inequality is really stark.
  - sendbitcoins 5y ago
    >the more house prices are juiced More institutions are buying homes and competing with the homeowners, because bonds are very-low yield and the stock market overpriced in terms of P/E.
pembrook 5y ago
While Fed policy and interest rate cuts certainly gave fuel to the fire, there's also just plain old supply & demand that is causing asset prices to rise. Houses? Turns out when you force people to stay home all day they suddenly decide apartment living sucks (more demand). It also turns out, people are resistant to the idea of having strangers tour their home during a pandemic (restricted supply). Stocks? Crypto? Turns out when you give people lots of money with no strings attached and then remove their favorite options for spending it (restaurants, travel, entertainment), they will invest or gamble it instead. Collectibles? Turns out, in scary times, bored people with money will start returning to childhood comforts like trading cards and nostalgia. Etc. Etc. This idea that the Federal Reserve is some all-powerful puppet master is a little overblown. Interest rates are insanely influential, but they pale in comparison to the forces created by the whims of the crowd.

kilbuz 5y ago

Can confirm that mechanical wristwatches have experienced the same. Some MSRP $20k watches can resell for over $100k currently. Pokemon cards, watches, comics, video games, NFTs, houses, yachts, all are very hard to buy right now, even for the wealthy (because of bidding wars and limited supply). Lots of money sloshing around.

pjbk 5y ago
Same for guitars in those money brackets.
PragmaticPulp 5y ago
I don't know many people into trading collectibles, but the few I've talked to have no illusions that this trend will continue forever. They're gambling that they can cash in on short-term market euphoria and hope that they can get out before it all collapses. Who knows what will actually happen. It's interesting to see collectible companies cashing in by manufacturing more "rare" collectibles out of thin air at a rapid pace.
ryanlol 5y ago
> Some MSRP $20k watches can resell for over $100k currently. Which? The base model Nautilus retails for $30k and the prices only skyrocketed because it was discontinued.
NhanH 5y ago
Out of curiosity, can you list a few watches that sell for more than 100k starting from 20k MSRP? Even the daytona and silver snoopy are not having that big of a jump
- hellbannedguy 5y ago
  I haven't seen that big of a jump in any watch these last few years. A few Rolex models are being sold 2x their MSRP. I believe Rolex, like Nike, are throttling down machines in order to keep the charade going? Giving middle class, and wealthy people a check, when most didn't need it didn't help much either. I heard a few guys mention, now I will get that Sub with my check. Rolex is a nonprofit entity. They stopped selling parts, or technical manuals, to Independant Watchrepair Shops. So if you ever buy a new Rolex, the minute the warranty goes, you are essentially forced to send it back to the factory at outrageous prices. I still repair Rolexes, but it takes longer because I have to hunt down parts.
- ping_pong 5y ago
  Designer bags have gotten extremely expensive. I'm talking about the $8000-10000 bags. The thing to do is to buy an expensive bag, use it for a few years, and then sell it for a profit, so basically people are now looking at is as an investment.
  - ryanlol 5y ago
    It’s funny too because Birkins have been really easy to buy during the past year, I got several while touring europe during peak-COVID because nobody was picking up their orders.
- conro1108 5y ago
  Patek nautilus 5711/1A-010 retails for around 30k and seems to be going for ~120k these days. FP Journe chronometre bleu commands a similar premium, retailing for around 20k and selling for 80k.
  - ryanlol 5y ago
aphextron 5y ago
>Can confirm that mechanical wristwatches have experienced the same. Yep. I'd been wanting to get a used Submariner for years now. Looked up prices the other day and they are literally double this time last year.

seibelj 5y ago

I don’t understand why interest rates are zero and we are still paying able-bodied people not to work. But hey - I work in tech startups, so keep the ridiculous easy money flowing so all the rich can get richer shrug

oivey 5y ago
Corollary: With the interest rates so low, I don’t understand how wages are so low that collecting unemployment is more attractive than working.
- seibelj 5y ago
  If you can make half to 3/4 your salary doing whatever you want, or an extra 25 to 50% by working 40 hours a week, a lot of people don't feel the need to work. Also an argument against UBI. If people have their bills paid, many don't feel like working.
  - Majromax 5y ago
    You're overestimating the generosity of unemployment benefits, and you're underestimating people's work ethic when given unrestricted (strings-free) transfers. In the first instance, unemployment benefits do not typically replace "half to 3/4 of your salary," and under ordinary circumstances US benefits are greatly limited in duration. Those for whom the "half to 3/4 of salary" replacement is more correct are also those who started on the low end of the salary scale, and I daresay the working poor should not be the subject of your ire. On the second point, your assumption -- while common enough -- has not been replicated in modern-day UBI trials. On the balance, those have shown somewhere between no change and small positive changes to work intention over the existing set of social benefits, which on one hand tend to require demonstrating job-search effort but on the other hand tend to be withdrawn beginning with a low earned salary level. In particular, I have seen no modern-day research demonstrating that providing a fixed benefit creates an indolent class.
  - biggestdummy 5y ago
    We (in the US, at least) are paying able bodied people not to work, precisely in order to have them not work. The policy being that it is better for the entire society if all the laid-off service economy people (retail, hospitality, entertainment, restaurants, etc.) stay home. If we did not pay them, they would find other work, which would require them to leave home. Which would be counter to the public health policies. Staying home is the _point_ of the policy, not a side-effect.

sdorf 5y ago

Is this rate of inflation computed anywhere? I'm curious what the actual figure is and how income has been diluted over the course of ongoing events.

ping_pong 5y ago
No one keeps track of inflation for anything other than consumer goods. Inflation is floating around 1-2% according to the Fed. They conveniently don't track things like fuel prices or food because they are too "volatile". And things like asset inflation simply isn't considered in the equation. But the reality is that upper income people have 401ks with stocks in them and lower income people live paycheck to paycheck. Since 2008 when the Fed start QE, the stock market has gone through the room, including companies like FANG. If you're not exposed to the stock market or housing market, then you're fucked.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  > They conveniently don't track things like fuel prices or food because they are too "volatile". Factually false. Its not very hard to search for that information. Just type "CPI Food" or "CPI Fuel". US Food prices: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIFABSL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIFABSL US Fuel prices: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/motor-fuel.htm https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/motor-fuel.htm CPI is the consumer price index, which tracks a variety of prices as an estimate of inflation. The sub-categories are tracked individually, and then averaged together into the overall CPI number. Even if you distrust the Fed entirely, we can use CBOE futures (the futures market), which has historical performance on a variety of food commodities (pork bellies, orange juice) and fuel (sweet light crude oil). CBOE is literally the free market and non-government. --------- Fuel prices are down over the past decade due to the uptick in US oil production. Remember $4+ / gallon US averages? (and $6+ in high cost places like Hawaii?) COVID19 has also decimated oil prices. Other goods have gone up in price, but fuel prices are really, really low right now, pulling inflation lower.
  - ping_pong 5y ago
    What I meant is that Fed Policy is dictated by Core PCE, so they don't look at that when setting rates. So it doesn't matter if fuel prices skyrocket or drop, it's not anything that gets the headlines. The only thing you hear about is Core PCE or Core CPI. If no policy is enacted by regular CPI, then who cares. The Fed only sees no inflation regardless of the inflation we see all around us.

specialp 5y ago

Inflation is low measured by the CPI and that is because most of the things measured in that index are made by people that are NOT increasing their wealth. It is a large transfer of wealth to the more wealthy who then benefit by lower tax rates for these capital gains.

frockington1 5y ago
The index doesn't include housing, food, and energy either as those are considered 'too volatile'. It's no longer targeting what anybody actually consumes anymore
- dahfizz 5y ago
  I don't know where you heard this, but it is not true. The CPI tracks rent/housing, food, energy, tuition, medical expenses, and everything else that people seem to think are excluded. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm#Question_10 https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm#Question_1...
- ChrisLomont 5y ago
  BLS tracks many inflation values, including those for housing, food, and energy, and they have done so for over 100 years. You're confusing core CPI, which excludes them so analysts can see the difference, and the CPI values as reported generally in the media, which do include housing, food, and energy. The most reported CPI is CPI-U (and is called CPI in the press), which is the CPI for urban consumers, which includes housing, food, and energy, and most comparable to historical and inflation values from other countries. But BLS tracks many forms. If you want to learn about this read https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
- ping_pong 5y ago
  Some comments below keep saying that CPI measures things like food and energy prices. What we really mean is that Fed policy is dictated by the Core PCE rate, which specifically excludes food and energy prices. So sure, the PCE and CPI measures energy and food prices and other volatiles prices, but *FED POLICY is dictated by the CORE rates*, which specifically exclude those volatile components. So de facto, no one (ie. the Fed) doesn't care about energy or food price inflation.

snarf21 5y ago

I really don't know how the Fed will unwind all this nonsense. It is sad that the Fed had to step in because we can't get the fiscal policy changes we need.

pjbk 5y ago
I think that, more often than not, they are part of the problem? Like favoring policies that promote spending and debt instead of long term investment and savings, in particular in those areas where it is really necessary.
retrac 5y ago
They cannot. At this point, it probably cannot be reversed or even held where it is, without jacking up taxes and spending a great deal on transfers of various kinds. (Reducing the cost of healthcare and education for the poor to both improve their lot and for long-term benefits from a healthier and more educated workforce, or funding long-term infrastructure construction projects, ideally with well-paid working class jobs, etc.) Up here in Canada we chose to pretty much just throw money at the working and middle class, especially with children, through the creation and then expansion of refundable low-income tax credits and a refundable credit for those with children. Now comes to almost $1500 per household average if I recall, and that has barely held the line on the natural rapid trend towards wealth inequality after the 2008 crash. And even then, still not equally or very well. It has probably not sucked to be in the bottom 10% of poor people in Canada this much, since before the war. The price of housing and food being most of that.
totalZero 5y ago
The Fed is the source of the problem. They purchase assets to prevent those assets from declining, and encourage consumer behavior that exposes citizens to economic risk. Remember Greenspan extolling the virtues of tapping into your home equity? Or more recently, Bernanke describing QE as a permanent tool? Last year, Yellen even suggested that Congress should revisit the rules around Fed purchases of equities. The Fed also encourages fiscal policy that reinforces a widening wealth gap and perpetuates moral hazards. We live in a society where the "experts" repeatedly push the notion that governments should stay out of growing sectors and inject life into collapsing sectors. Contrast this with what China does, where they back new enterprises in growing sectors while allowing deadwood firms to go under in lethargic sectors. [0] We in the USA have bailed out automakers that can't keep up with their foreign competition. We have bailed out banks that were too stupid to avoid buying billions of dollars of junk. We have even bailed out airlines during a period when business and international travel are at a deep nadir. Yet we find it difficult to spur new growth in the digital economy, whether by enabling competition against Big Tech or by investing in the infrastructure that supports semiconductor fabrication. Don't look to the Fed for a solution. [0] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-04/china-tells-inefficient-firms-to-toughen-up-or-prepare-to-fail https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-04/china-tel...

wufufufu 5y ago

I think of Bitcoin as a hail mary attempt to fix the inequality caused by central banking. I got a lot of flak for saying that I would trade the environmental damage done by bitcoin for negating central banking in another thread, but I believe that wealth inequality is the biggest humanitarian problem we face.

teachingassist 5y ago
I don't see that Bitcoin has any hope of solving wealth inequality. If anything, it's a mechanism to entrench it. Up to now: 1. only a fraction of a minority of the population have gained wealth from Bitcoin, and 2. those people had wealth enough to buy sufficient Bitcoin in the first place.
- wmf 5y ago
  With 60,000x gains, you didn't need to buy much Bitcoin to become rich. Of course, winning lottery tickets have even better odds but they're not solving inequality either. An argument has been made that "elites" were "brainwashed by the system" to believe that crypto would fail and thus they never bought in. Instead, "outsiders" bought crypto and may one day eclipse the old elites. However, crypto's "outsider" early adopters were mostly middle-class techies not working-class people. So yeah, Bitcoin is still not solving anything.
  - chrisco255 5y ago
    Yeah, if you were in on the ground floor and if you had conviction not to sell once you 10x or 100x. Few people can make that claim. But meanwhile there have been several other crypto projects that have cropped up that have seen life-changing gains and are actually built on sustainable, value-adding platforms (Ethereum, Uniswap, Synthetix, Aave, etc).
  - ChainOfFools 5y ago
    > winning lottery tickets have even better odds but they're not solving inequality either. lotteries are cancer and I'm in no way a supporter of them (except to acknowledge they may be the best answer to a problem that has no good solutions), but the model does work like a vice tax, in that a substantial fraction of ticket proceeds go toward various social and investment programs. the prizes only consume 20-70% of the revenue (specific fraction depends on the game).

ljf 5y ago

I homebrew, and getting hold of corny kegs at reasonable prices has been hard this year here in the UK. 2019 is was 3 for £100 delivered, and even cheaper if you could buy direct from somewhere. This year even 2nd hand they are £65 plus, though new are still £85ish if you can find them. It's been a funny year for hobbies!

kevinmchugh 5y ago
Corny prices were creeping up for a while since the obsolete soda kegs got scarce a while ago. I haven't brewed in years, so idk how that's changed lately
- ljf 5y ago
  In 2019 you could by 10 plus in the USA for 25 dollars a keg, plus shipping. Even cheaper if you were lucky. That translated into about £35 a keg here from a cheap homebrew shop, though many charged closer to £50 for the good ones. Now the prices are just higher. Not sure if supply has dried up, or the same supply and more buyers but all the homebrew shops I use have had brilliant years for profits.

jvreagan 5y ago

Baseball cards are in the same boat in terms of demand, although the prices for most are not increasing that much. At least in the last few months, and in certain areas of the country. I've gone from selling a few cards from my hall-of-famer collection per year to multiple people asking to pay for my entire collection. And people are asking whether I have football, basketball, and hockey cards. Which has literally never happened before.

kadabra9 5y ago
Sports cards in general have gotten to the point of absurdity. Grown men fighting each other in the aisles of Walmart trying to clear the shelves of NBA cards. The Michael Jordan PSA 10 went from $100k, to $370k to over $700k very rapidly, and has since declined back to around 300k or so. People are buying retail boxes from scalpers for like 5x, just purely on hype and FOMO. As someone whose been into cards before the covid meltdown, this has all been wild.

cbmuser 5y ago

> Blame the Fed for creating asset price inflation including stocks, housing, collectibles, etc. Isn’t the FED just following government orders and isn’t the government elected by the people?

bcrosby95 5y ago
No. The FED is "supposed" to be independent from the government and do what it thinks is best. But over the past 20 years it feels like they have been increasingly politicized. I'm not sure to what extent it has modified their decision making though.
actusual 5y ago
In theory, no. The Federal Reserve has a mandate from congress to achieve full employment and stable prices, but can do so how they see fit. Their actions need not be ratified by the executive branch. The board of governors are also appointed for 14 year terms.

markus_zhang 5y ago

A few weeks ago I checked the price of the black lotus card and OMG...

snypher 5y ago
Around $100k in 2018 and around $400k now if mtgprice.com is reliable.
- markus_zhang 5y ago
  yeah that's crazy. I'm never into cards and only read about it in the excellent reddit blogger patches765. https://www.reddit.com/r/patches765/comments/5isji2/intelligent_gaming_index/ https://www.reddit.com/r/patches765/comments/5isji2/intellig... BTW his blogs are really of top quality and I can't help reading through to deep night.

freeFromGoog 5y ago

But guys Bitcoin is worthless! /s In time it will be obvious why an alternative to USD is needed. (And hopefully one of the shitcoins can find a low cost, decentralized, secure, fast way to transfer money so Bitcoin can copy it)

uses 5y ago

It would be hard to claim that quantitative easing and stimulus has "nothing" to do with asset prices but surely the biggest change in the past year has been the incredible shift in spending habits. White collar workers have had way fewer expenses (work-from-home) and way less lifestyle-based things to spend their discretionary income on. No vacations, no dining out, no new clothes etc. People have been at home and looking back into old hobbies. Money flowing into collectibles and other alternative investments has been a straightforward result of that.

Grazester 5y ago
Bingo. I no longer spend $150 on commuting to work a month plus buying lunch. I spent some of that now on games for a console I had as a kid but could not afford to buy a whole lot of games for. In the past 2 years some games went up some 100% or more in price. I bought a game 6 months ago for $90 I see listings for it on ebay for $150. Its pretty insane.
- hnlmorg 5y ago
  Never take ebay listings as a guide. Always look at past sales instead. The reason is you get a lot of chancers on ebay listing items at inflated prices on Buy It Now with the hope that someone rich enough and desperate enough will happily pay the higher cost. But more often than not, the higher Buy It Now listings time out and get re-listed over and over again. The real market value of games is seen in the auctions and Facebook retro groups (literally the only reason I have a Facebook account is for collecting retro computer parts and games. If you find the right group you can get some pretty good deals).
  - Grazester 5y ago
    I stated ebay because it was where I bought the game originally. I usually use https://www.pricecharting.com/ https://www.pricecharting.com/ to check the trends and make sure I am not overpaying. The games I want aren't available on facebook. People now know their worth. You get more common games that discs aren't even worth it as coasters to me. I have mostly given up them.

f430 5y ago

this bubble will end badly

pfranz 5y ago

Is there any reporting or other insight on this? My first intuition is that services are way down because of Covid and the money for people with stable jobs is being redirecting elsewhere inflating the cost of collectibles, savings, investment, and other goods mixed with distribution and manufacturing slowdowns worldwide. Construction is inflated because the cost of materials have gone way up due to ongoing shipping reductions and factory closures due to Covid. Housing prices are inflated (in places where people want to live) because of long-term bad housing policy and NIMBYism causing slow and the wrong kind of new construction. WFH and eviction bans are likely causing a shift in housing demand. I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed has some blame. I think there's been a belated reckoning since 2008. But it's a pandemic that has lasted over a year now and there are a bunch of second-order effects out there.

ping_pong 5y ago
Housing prices are high because the stock market is high and interest rates are rock bottom. The higher the stock market goes and the lower interest rates go, the more house prices are juiced. Anyone without exposure to the stock market will never be able to afford a house, ever. That's where the income inequality is really stark.
- sendbitcoins 5y ago
  >the more house prices are juiced More institutions are buying homes and competing with the homeowners, because bonds are very-low yield and the stock market overpriced in terms of P/E.

pembrook 5y ago

While Fed policy and interest rate cuts certainly gave fuel to the fire, there's also just plain old supply & demand that is causing asset prices to rise. Houses? Turns out when you force people to stay home all day they suddenly decide apartment living sucks (more demand). It also turns out, people are resistant to the idea of having strangers tour their home during a pandemic (restricted supply). Stocks? Crypto? Turns out when you give people lots of money with no strings attached and then remove their favorite options for spending it (restaurants, travel, entertainment), they will invest or gamble it instead. Collectibles? Turns out, in scary times, bored people with money will start returning to childhood comforts like trading cards and nostalgia. Etc. Etc. This idea that the Federal Reserve is some all-powerful puppet master is a little overblown. Interest rates are insanely influential, but they pale in comparison to the forces created by the whims of the crowd.