8 ms·

I agree, the current push for full EV was too soon. Even after extraordinary efforts like Tesla + Superchargers, the range and refill experience still isn't as

I agree, the current push for full EV was too soon. Even after extraordinary efforts like Tesla + Superchargers, the range and refill experience still isn't as good as ICE (range goes down with cold weather, and Superchargers still require 30-40 minutes). The battery tech right now is the perfect fit for PHEV. The EV transition should've been like this: 1. Government requires 50 mile range (about 20kwh battery) in all new cars. PHEV quickly becomes the default for all models (cars, SUV, trucks). Battery supply is less of an issue (A single 80kwh Tesla battery can be used in 4 PHEV cars). 2. DC fast charging (250kw) infrastructure is built in all cities. A small PHEV battery (20kwh) + DC fast charging means battery can be completely charged in minutes, as fast as filling up a gas tank. Maybe DC fast charging could even be built right next to the gas pumps (fill up gas and battery at the same time) This makes PHEV work for those without charging at home. 3. PHEV works fine in all weather. Battery range drops during winter? Just use some more gas, there's no range anxiety. 4. People get used to the feeling of driving in EV mode. And they notice how nice and quiet it is compared to when the ICE warms up. Also the environmental benefits. 5. Car manufacturers and battery companies get solid state batteries ready for mass production. Now is the time for 300 miles+ full EV cars. With solid state, no cold weather problems, much faster charge rate, no fire risk, no liquid cooling system, much higher durability. This is the battery tech that can fully replace ICE.

pa7ch 5y ago
I think series EV's with a generator are great and absolutely have their place in the transition to electric. Mazda just announced one for the US. But! The charge rate on batteries is directly proportional to their capacity (given same battery tech). So a tesla 20 kwh pack would charge 10-80% about as fast as a 100 kwh battery. So I think series-evs would mostly charge at home as a result and get gas while out and about if they need range.
mschuster91 5y ago
> Even after extraordinary efforts like Tesla + Superchargers, the range and refill experience still isn't as good as ICE (range goes down with cold weather, and Superchargers still require 30-40 minutes). Actually, it is a good thing that range limits and recharge durations require breaks - it is recommended to do regular breaks, generally between 15m/2h (per http://drivingergonomics.lboro.ac.uk/faq.html http://drivingergonomics.lboro.ac.uk/faq.html) to 15m/3h (https://www.theaa.com/driving-advice/safety/tired-drivers https://www.theaa.com/driving-advice/safety/tired-drivers). I'm not sure if this is just a random correlation or actual causation, but Tesla's accident rate is way lower than generic even without Autopilot (1/1.79M miles driven vs 1/0.479M miles driven, per https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/10/28/new-tesla-autopilot-statistics-show-its-almost-as-safe-driving-with-it-as-without/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/10/28/new-te...).
- tallanvor 5y ago
  While Tesla would love to have people believe that their cars are safer than other cars, they are cherry-picking data which makes a real comparison difficult. One clear example that makes a huge difference in accident rates is the age of the driver. The average Tesla owner was 54 in 2018 vs 38 for car owners in general [1]. Teenagers are involved in 2-4 times more accidents per miles driven than drivers over the age of 30 [2], so by having a very low percentage of drivers under the age of 30 relative to other brands, you can already expect to see a significant difference in accident rates. Further, the article you quote says that Tesla's numbers "includes any activation of active restraints (airbags/pretensioners) which is crashes over 12mph.", whereas my link [2] is for any police reported crash, which would include fender-benders and other low speed accidents. I suspect that if you could correct for these factors, you'd find that Tesla's aren't statistically safer than other comparable cars. [1] https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2018/11/tesla-owner-demographics/ https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2018/11/tesla-owner-demograph... [2] https://aaafoundation.org/rates-motor-vehicle-crashes-injuries-deaths-relation-driver-age-united-states-2014-2015/ https://aaafoundation.org/rates-motor-vehicle-crashes-injuri...
light_hue_1 5y ago
This is the wrong perspective on EVs. The solution is to have chargers at home, even slow ones. Then you have zero range anxiety. Your car is always topped up. You never visit a supercharger or a gas station or anything similar. You go, unplug, drive out, drive back, plug in, and that's it. Weather, infrastructure, DC fast charging, are all irrelevant aside from when you want to take cross-country trips. > 5. Car manufacturers and battery companies get solid state batteries ready for mass production. Now is the time for 300 miles+ full EV cars. With solid state, no cold weather problems, much faster charge rate, no fire risk, no liquid cooling system, much higher durability. This is the battery tech that can fully replace ICE. EVs already have enough battery capacity for 90% of trips with a simple at home charger that you plug into your regular wall socket. We need to radically scale up production, not wait for some uncertain future. Maybe solid state batteries will match current batteries in cost in half a decade, maybe not. Until then we are ravaging the environment for no reason at all when we already have a perfectly good solution with no downsides.
- dataflow 5y ago
  > You go, unplug, drive out, drive back, plug in, and that's it. Weather, infrastructure, DC fast charging, are all irrelevant aside from when you want to take cross-country trips. A couple hundred miles is hardly "cross-country". If you're in the San Francisco, just drive to Monterey and back, and Google Maps tells me you'll log some 240mi (assuming you don't hit traffic or diversions)...
  - jussij 5y ago
    But a trip of couple of hundred miles should not be an issue. If you're driving a 240 mi round trip, at the half way point you will be taking time away from the car on whatever business brought you there in the first place. In that time your car will be sitting idle and it can be topping up ready for the return trip.
    - dataflow 5y ago
      Business? Like you mean the aquarium, assuming they have free charging spots? Does everything have to be for business? What if you're going for a hiking trail or something? Is there really no scenario where you could drive that far and not be greeted with a charging spot waiting for you at the right location? Use your imagination.

pa7ch 5y ago

I think series EV's with a generator are great and absolutely have their place in the transition to electric. Mazda just announced one for the US. But! The charge rate on batteries is directly proportional to their capacity (given same battery tech). So a tesla 20 kwh pack would charge 10-80% about as fast as a 100 kwh battery. So I think series-evs would mostly charge at home as a result and get gas while out and about if they need range.

mschuster91 5y ago

> Even after extraordinary efforts like Tesla + Superchargers, the range and refill experience still isn't as good as ICE (range goes down with cold weather, and Superchargers still require 30-40 minutes). Actually, it is a good thing that range limits and recharge durations require breaks - it is recommended to do regular breaks, generally between 15m/2h (per http://drivingergonomics.lboro.ac.uk/faq.html http://drivingergonomics.lboro.ac.uk/faq.html) to 15m/3h (https://www.theaa.com/driving-advice/safety/tired-drivers https://www.theaa.com/driving-advice/safety/tired-drivers). I'm not sure if this is just a random correlation or actual causation, but Tesla's accident rate is way lower than generic even without Autopilot (1/1.79M miles driven vs 1/0.479M miles driven, per https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/10/28/new-tesla-autopilot-statistics-show-its-almost-as-safe-driving-with-it-as-without/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/10/28/new-te...).

tallanvor 5y ago
While Tesla would love to have people believe that their cars are safer than other cars, they are cherry-picking data which makes a real comparison difficult. One clear example that makes a huge difference in accident rates is the age of the driver. The average Tesla owner was 54 in 2018 vs 38 for car owners in general [1]. Teenagers are involved in 2-4 times more accidents per miles driven than drivers over the age of 30 [2], so by having a very low percentage of drivers under the age of 30 relative to other brands, you can already expect to see a significant difference in accident rates. Further, the article you quote says that Tesla's numbers "includes any activation of active restraints (airbags/pretensioners) which is crashes over 12mph.", whereas my link [2] is for any police reported crash, which would include fender-benders and other low speed accidents. I suspect that if you could correct for these factors, you'd find that Tesla's aren't statistically safer than other comparable cars. [1] https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2018/11/tesla-owner-demographics/ https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2018/11/tesla-owner-demograph... [2] https://aaafoundation.org/rates-motor-vehicle-crashes-injuries-deaths-relation-driver-age-united-states-2014-2015/ https://aaafoundation.org/rates-motor-vehicle-crashes-injuri...

light_hue_1 5y ago

This is the wrong perspective on EVs. The solution is to have chargers at home, even slow ones. Then you have zero range anxiety. Your car is always topped up. You never visit a supercharger or a gas station or anything similar. You go, unplug, drive out, drive back, plug in, and that's it. Weather, infrastructure, DC fast charging, are all irrelevant aside from when you want to take cross-country trips. > 5. Car manufacturers and battery companies get solid state batteries ready for mass production. Now is the time for 300 miles+ full EV cars. With solid state, no cold weather problems, much faster charge rate, no fire risk, no liquid cooling system, much higher durability. This is the battery tech that can fully replace ICE. EVs already have enough battery capacity for 90% of trips with a simple at home charger that you plug into your regular wall socket. We need to radically scale up production, not wait for some uncertain future. Maybe solid state batteries will match current batteries in cost in half a decade, maybe not. Until then we are ravaging the environment for no reason at all when we already have a perfectly good solution with no downsides.

dataflow 5y ago
> You go, unplug, drive out, drive back, plug in, and that's it. Weather, infrastructure, DC fast charging, are all irrelevant aside from when you want to take cross-country trips. A couple hundred miles is hardly "cross-country". If you're in the San Francisco, just drive to Monterey and back, and Google Maps tells me you'll log some 240mi (assuming you don't hit traffic or diversions)...
- jussij 5y ago
  But a trip of couple of hundred miles should not be an issue. If you're driving a 240 mi round trip, at the half way point you will be taking time away from the car on whatever business brought you there in the first place. In that time your car will be sitting idle and it can be topping up ready for the return trip.
  - dataflow 5y ago
    Business? Like you mean the aquarium, assuming they have free charging spots? Does everything have to be for business? What if you're going for a hiking trail or something? Is there really no scenario where you could drive that far and not be greeted with a charging spot waiting for you at the right location? Use your imagination.