5 ms·

Self-driving cars are perennially five years away. Putting aside the question of whether the tech is there or not (and I would argue it isn’t there for commerc

Self-driving cars are perennially five years away. Putting aside the question of whether the tech is there or not (and I would argue it isn’t there for commercial consumer use), the infrastructure and the laws will take years to catch up. This isn’t an overnight problem and many of the barriers are things that tech can’t just design around.

weego 6y ago
Self-driving cars will always be x years away until purpose built and dedicated self-driving car roads are built to take out the variables that put safety at risk.
lettergram 6y ago
Not to mention there’s a huge voting block that’ll be against automation. I think the best first bet is just localized (robots in factories). I’m personally of the opinion we are 10 years away or more technically. Main issue is weather and the risk threshold people can tolerate. All the tests thus far are in environments are high sun, no rain environments. If we are already localizing to southern cities, we may as well just add fiducial markers and guide wires. In terms of risk threshold, look at COVID, risk of death under 45 is something like 0.5%. Or the black unarmed homicide count (<30). People have no way of measuring risk, just a few fatalities would have the public in a panic.
- kevin_thibedeau 6y ago
  In the snow belt the reflective top layer of the lane markings gets scraped off by plows. When it rains the markings will completely disappear at night. Machine learning optimized for the ideal case is never going to work in many parts of the country.
- nradov 6y ago
  The CDC's best estimate of COVID-19 infection fatality rate for people under 45 is more like 0.05%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#five-scenarios https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

5 ms·

Self-driving cars are perennially five years away. Putting aside the question of whether the tech is there or not (and I would argue it isn’t there for commerc

by filmgirlcw 6y ago

weego 6y ago
Self-driving cars will always be x years away until purpose built and dedicated self-driving car roads are built to take out the variables that put safety at risk.
lettergram 6y ago
Not to mention there’s a huge voting block that’ll be against automation. I think the best first bet is just localized (robots in factories). I’m personally of the opinion we are 10 years away or more technically. Main issue is weather and the risk threshold people can tolerate. All the tests thus far are in environments are high sun, no rain environments. If we are already localizing to southern cities, we may as well just add fiducial markers and guide wires. In terms of risk threshold, look at COVID, risk of death under 45 is something like 0.5%. Or the black unarmed homicide count (<30). People have no way of measuring risk, just a few fatalities would have the public in a panic.
- kevin_thibedeau 6y ago
  In the snow belt the reflective top layer of the lane markings gets scraped off by plows. When it rains the markings will completely disappear at night. Machine learning optimized for the ideal case is never going to work in many parts of the country.
- nradov 6y ago
  The CDC's best estimate of COVID-19 infection fatality rate for people under 45 is more like 0.05%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#five-scenarios https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...