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In the end this makes sense; an actual car company is much better positioned to actually profit from marginal improvements in self-driving (read: safety improve

by mNovak 5y ago

In the end this makes sense; an actual car company is much better positioned to actually profit from marginal improvements in self-driving (read: safety improvements) year over year, rather than wait for the windfall of FSD taxi service at some unknown point in the future.

throwaway0a5e 5y ago
Toyota is the last company I expect to bring something new to market well. The last time they did that it was the Prius and it was kind of a fluke IMO. Toyota's entire market is convincing people (the bulk of whom will trade in in a few years) that a Camry/4Runner/Sienna is worth substantially more than an Altima/Tahoe/Pacifica based on a bunch of promises about reliability after 150k that the statistical first owner will never see (spare us all the anecdote about your relative who trades in at 300k on the dot, I have one of those too). If robotaxi fleets become the game then Toyota is gonna lose because commercial buyers who buy us a fleet of whatever has the lowest all things included TCO over 3/5/10yr tend to buy a hell of a lot of Chrysler 200s, Nissan Sentras, Chevy Colorados, Chrysler Pacificas, Ford Transit Connects, and other not so premium vehicles. If FSD tech is viable in the next 20yr I'd be very surprised if the reality of what that will do to Toyota's business doesn't keep them from going all in enough to bring a viable version to market early enough to get a good market share at it.
- thrwyoilarticle 5y ago
  I can buy a Toyota here but not an Altima, Tahoe or a Pacifica. So Toyota's market is a little bigger than that. Regardless, there is no other car company doing anything like the Mirai.
- rhodozelia 5y ago
  Not only are Toyota’s more reliable in the long run, they have fewer defects out of the factory, fewer lemons, and because of this reputation they don’t depreciate as quickly. I am going to get a new Tacoma every 2 years because I can sell the old one for nearly the same price as the new one. No more losing 50% of the value as soon as you drive it off the lot.
  - gher-shyu3i 5y ago
    Aren't the new Tacomas made in Mexico? Do you think that will affect their reliability?
    - WrtCdEvrydy 5y ago
      You'd be surprised how many good things come out of "Made in Mexico"... the biggest issues are always out of spec components and starting at a new factory and having people be scared of reporting QC problems. I'd expect the Toyota methodology to trickle down.
      - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
        If we were talking about VW or Ford making stuff in Mexico people would be shitting all over made in Mexico. "Hurr durr side stepping muh UAW and muh OSHA" and stuff like that But brands that start with T and end with A can do no wrong on the white collar parts of the internet so Toyota gets a pass.
        WrtCdEvrydy 5y ago
        I mean, you're not wrong, but the history has shown that Japanese manufacturing is good. I don't know whether Toyota will pull it off, but if they do, they'll save some cash.
        throwaway0a5e 5y ago
        >but the history has shown that Japanese manufacturing is good. Last I checked Nissan and Mitsubishi (though they're on the up and up lately) were Japanese. The people of the Camry tax brackets don't exactly hold them in high regard.
- Clewza313 5y ago
  I think you're conflating self driving cars with ride-sharing here. Yes, getting rid of human drivers would lower the cost of ride shares and hence increase that market at the expense of having your own car, but the vast majority of current car owners will still have their own cars. Hell, we might even see car ownership increase once you can have your cake and eat it: all the comforts of your own car plus an AI doing the actual driving.
  - hellbannedguy 5y ago
    Ride sharing companies have it pretty good now. I'm not sure why they would even want to get rid of Independant Contractors? 1. They get desperate people to buy specific four door vechicles, and don't even have to worrry maintance costs. 1.5 Driver pays for fuel. 2. They don't pay for insurance. 3. They don't have to pay for liability. 4. They pay a Independant Contractor a percent of sales. 5. Most countries have a burgeoning sector of low skill help whom that are begrudgingly copacetic with being exploited. (This I find this very sad, especially in a country I used to love. For decades there wasen't a lot of takers for shit jobs. Now there's a line.)
- argonaut 5y ago
  The average age of a car on the road today is 11 years. Toyota's reliability really makes a difference for secondhand owners, and therefore used Toyotas command a premium, and you get more for your car when you sell it or trade it in. Otherwise, it's true that new cars from many different brands are reliable enough nowadays, even brands that used to be bad like Hyundai (unless you want to buy a car and keep it forever). But used car sales far outstrip new car sales.
  - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
    Used Toyotas command a premium because relatively none of them find their hands in the "oil changes, lol I can barely afford gas" crowd that wears stuff out and doesn't maintain stuff. You never see a Sienna getting loaded with bags of concrete at Home Depot. Can't say that about a Town and Country. You never see a family of 5 pile out of a (newish) Corrla. Can't say that about an Altima. You never see a 4Runner towing something way too big. Can't say that about a Tahoe. Toyotas sell for a premium used because they get sold to "premium" customers who keep them nice. If Toyota financed the people Chryler and Nissan would finance (insert neggity joke) then in 20yr you would see all the upper middle class HN types shitting all over Toyota because Toyota would be the poor people car. You'd see them in all sorts of states of disrepair and neglect and they would be stereotypes as unreliable, after all why else would they be driving around on 3/4cyl? I can't believe I'm defending Chrysler and Nissan but the blind Toyota worship is just that, blind worship. Most of their niceness comes from people keeping them nice. The real world edge between manufacturers is very, very slim. In end of life they are no better or worse than anything else that's been treated the way they have (VW's regularly scheduled electrical fires notwithstanding)
    - Zhenya 5y ago
      This is patently false. Check Australia and Africa where Land Cruisers rule and survive like roaches (as do old Mercedes). It's because they are well engineered.
      - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
- rbg246 5y ago
  Not sure whether you have factored in lost days of revenue into your back of envelope TCO. When a cheaper less reliable car is in the garage being repaired it's not just about the cost of repair but also the opportunity cost of lost revenue.
  - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
    So how do you reconcile this with all the cheap domestics being used as fleet vehicles in commercial applications where downtime directly translates to money? Pretty much every minivan fleet in the US runs on Pacificas and Transit connects. Small trucks are always the Colorado. Of course the cabbies love their Priuses but they only begrudgingly switched after the supply of ex-cop crown vics dried up.

by mNovak 5y ago

throwaway0a5e 5y ago

Toyota is the last company I expect to bring something new to market well. The last time they did that it was the Prius and it was kind of a fluke IMO. Toyota's entire market is convincing people (the bulk of whom will trade in in a few years) that a Camry/4Runner/Sienna is worth substantially more than an Altima/Tahoe/Pacifica based on a bunch of promises about reliability after 150k that the statistical first owner will never see (spare us all the anecdote about your relative who trades in at 300k on the dot, I have one of those too). If robotaxi fleets become the game then Toyota is gonna lose because commercial buyers who buy us a fleet of whatever has the lowest all things included TCO over 3/5/10yr tend to buy a hell of a lot of Chrysler 200s, Nissan Sentras, Chevy Colorados, Chrysler Pacificas, Ford Transit Connects, and other not so premium vehicles. If FSD tech is viable in the next 20yr I'd be very surprised if the reality of what that will do to Toyota's business doesn't keep them from going all in enough to bring a viable version to market early enough to get a good market share at it.

thrwyoilarticle 5y ago
I can buy a Toyota here but not an Altima, Tahoe or a Pacifica. So Toyota's market is a little bigger than that. Regardless, there is no other car company doing anything like the Mirai.
rhodozelia 5y ago
Not only are Toyota’s more reliable in the long run, they have fewer defects out of the factory, fewer lemons, and because of this reputation they don’t depreciate as quickly. I am going to get a new Tacoma every 2 years because I can sell the old one for nearly the same price as the new one. No more losing 50% of the value as soon as you drive it off the lot.
- gher-shyu3i 5y ago
  Aren't the new Tacomas made in Mexico? Do you think that will affect their reliability?
  - WrtCdEvrydy 5y ago
    You'd be surprised how many good things come out of "Made in Mexico"... the biggest issues are always out of spec components and starting at a new factory and having people be scared of reporting QC problems. I'd expect the Toyota methodology to trickle down.
    - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
      If we were talking about VW or Ford making stuff in Mexico people would be shitting all over made in Mexico. "Hurr durr side stepping muh UAW and muh OSHA" and stuff like that But brands that start with T and end with A can do no wrong on the white collar parts of the internet so Toyota gets a pass.
      - WrtCdEvrydy 5y ago
        I mean, you're not wrong, but the history has shown that Japanese manufacturing is good. I don't know whether Toyota will pull it off, but if they do, they'll save some cash.
        throwaway0a5e 5y ago
        >but the history has shown that Japanese manufacturing is good. Last I checked Nissan and Mitsubishi (though they're on the up and up lately) were Japanese. The people of the Camry tax brackets don't exactly hold them in high regard.
Clewza313 5y ago
I think you're conflating self driving cars with ride-sharing here. Yes, getting rid of human drivers would lower the cost of ride shares and hence increase that market at the expense of having your own car, but the vast majority of current car owners will still have their own cars. Hell, we might even see car ownership increase once you can have your cake and eat it: all the comforts of your own car plus an AI doing the actual driving.
- hellbannedguy 5y ago
  Ride sharing companies have it pretty good now. I'm not sure why they would even want to get rid of Independant Contractors? 1. They get desperate people to buy specific four door vechicles, and don't even have to worrry maintance costs. 1.5 Driver pays for fuel. 2. They don't pay for insurance. 3. They don't have to pay for liability. 4. They pay a Independant Contractor a percent of sales. 5. Most countries have a burgeoning sector of low skill help whom that are begrudgingly copacetic with being exploited. (This I find this very sad, especially in a country I used to love. For decades there wasen't a lot of takers for shit jobs. Now there's a line.)
argonaut 5y ago
The average age of a car on the road today is 11 years. Toyota's reliability really makes a difference for secondhand owners, and therefore used Toyotas command a premium, and you get more for your car when you sell it or trade it in. Otherwise, it's true that new cars from many different brands are reliable enough nowadays, even brands that used to be bad like Hyundai (unless you want to buy a car and keep it forever). But used car sales far outstrip new car sales.
- throwaway0a5e 5y ago
  Used Toyotas command a premium because relatively none of them find their hands in the "oil changes, lol I can barely afford gas" crowd that wears stuff out and doesn't maintain stuff. You never see a Sienna getting loaded with bags of concrete at Home Depot. Can't say that about a Town and Country. You never see a family of 5 pile out of a (newish) Corrla. Can't say that about an Altima. You never see a 4Runner towing something way too big. Can't say that about a Tahoe. Toyotas sell for a premium used because they get sold to "premium" customers who keep them nice. If Toyota financed the people Chryler and Nissan would finance (insert neggity joke) then in 20yr you would see all the upper middle class HN types shitting all over Toyota because Toyota would be the poor people car. You'd see them in all sorts of states of disrepair and neglect and they would be stereotypes as unreliable, after all why else would they be driving around on 3/4cyl? I can't believe I'm defending Chrysler and Nissan but the blind Toyota worship is just that, blind worship. Most of their niceness comes from people keeping them nice. The real world edge between manufacturers is very, very slim. In end of life they are no better or worse than anything else that's been treated the way they have (VW's regularly scheduled electrical fires notwithstanding)
  - Zhenya 5y ago
    This is patently false. Check Australia and Africa where Land Cruisers rule and survive like roaches (as do old Mercedes). It's because they are well engineered.
    - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
rbg246 5y ago
Not sure whether you have factored in lost days of revenue into your back of envelope TCO. When a cheaper less reliable car is in the garage being repaired it's not just about the cost of repair but also the opportunity cost of lost revenue.
- throwaway0a5e 5y ago
  So how do you reconcile this with all the cheap domestics being used as fleet vehicles in commercial applications where downtime directly translates to money? Pretty much every minivan fleet in the US runs on Pacificas and Transit connects. Small trucks are always the Colorado. Of course the cabbies love their Priuses but they only begrudgingly switched after the supply of ex-cop crown vics dried up.