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What’s amazing is that just 5 years ago, it seemed like a distant goal. People were skeptical of Tesla in 2015 (rightfully so). Almost went bankrupt in 2017. Th

What’s amazing is that just 5 years ago, it seemed like a distant goal. People were skeptical of Tesla in 2015 (rightfully so). Almost went bankrupt in 2017. They dug themselves out of there despite of Elon’s PR shenanigans. Pretty amazing I think! Now about that stock price, I’m not so sure. It’s like next 20 years are baked into $735/share price now.

dangus 6y ago
The inflated stock price is easy to explain: intangibles are part of the balance sheet. In my guesstimation, Tesla will be making electric cars with a range to dollar ratio that can’t possibly be matched by incumbents for the foreseeable future. VW and the rest are more capable of producing a refined car, but (again, my opinion) Tesla’s EV advantage is similar to the big three’s various inertial advantages that they enjoyed in the mid-20th century. Perhaps more US-specific: buying a Tesla over something like a VW ID.4 gives you the supercharger network. It will be years if not decades before the general open standard charging network can compete with that benefit of ownership.
- azinman2 6y ago
  So I just bought an ID.4 this weekend after seeing on HN on Friday that it launched in the US. I also test drove a Tesla Y just to double check Saturday morning before doing so. Tesla Y is for sure faster and the better drive. It's also like 10-15k more expensive and that's not even before VW's rebates. The interior was weird -- tiny headrests, tiny mirrors, and really poor back visibility. A giant screen in middle and nothing else wasn't particularly great, and I don't have CarPlay (I know Tesla has a lot of functionality in their system, but I'd personally rather drive it all from my phone to have a more continuous experience in car and out of car). On that screen was a 'video game'-ified representation of what Autopilot was seeing... not only distracting, but kept being wrong while I was stopped at a red light staring at it as it missed the cars in front of me and kept rapidly alternating what direction the incoming lane was going to turn. And that's driving the car? Scary! I don't care about being faster, the ID.4 is plenty fast. I also don't really care about 250mi versus 350mi range or whatever right now.. all are inconvenient for a super long trip. I just recently drove from SF to near Canada... that was a very long multi-day drive and I would for sure not want to have multiple 35m+ stops in addition to the long drive. Until the technology gets WAYYY better I'll just rent ICE cars for a very long drive. Until then 250mi is plenty to get around the Bay Area knowing I can just plugin at home overnight to recharge. VW has build a Electrify America charging network from a 2B settlement for their diesel emissions standards. If they're smart they'll capitalize on this and win much more in the long run by becoming Exxon AND a car company... their network isn't exclusive to their cars. With everyone coming online in the next couple years, Tesla is going to have very real competition. I don't think the areas that they're better at are quite as make/break for car decision making as they claim to be. Elon Musk himself certainly doesn't help as a very divisive figure (and was part of the reason I didn't want a Tesla).
  - browningstreet 6y ago
    I recently compared the number of charging stations for Tesla, Ford and VW here in Reno. Tesla had some, Ford had many, VW had very few. In markets like this that’s gonna hurt for a while.
  - stsmwg 6y ago
    These are almost the exact reason I'm looking forward to test driving an ID.4. I just don't care about the acceleration enough to have that be a plus. I hope you like your ID.4, it really seems like a 'regular car' BEV.
  - Drunk_Engineer 6y ago
    As a former Audi owner, I would never ever buy anything from VW (certainly not after the dieselgate scandal). But good luck with your $45k purchase!
    - azinman2 6y ago
      Why specifically? Don’t we want to support them in EVs? Btw it’s -9k with rebates. But I also leased as I anticipate it being uncompetitive in 3 years. Everyone has EVs coming so the tech and competition will mature quickly. This is a first gen car for VW.
      - Drunk_Engineer 6y ago
        There is no obligation to "support" a for-profit corporation like some kind of charity. Certainly VW deserves no such charity. It is a recidivist emissions violator that has been caught doing defeat devices on multiple occasions. It treats customers with the same contempt as it does the EPA. It is good though that you got your vehicle on lease. If it is like my first-generation A4, everything will start to fall apart after 3 years.
  - pa7ch 6y ago
    I wouldn't just say 250 vs 350 is a wash on trips . While the Y isn't better then ICE for road trips its way better then the VW for EV road trips
- nikau 6y ago
  Except most real world tests show Tesla doesn't go any further than competing cars regardless of what their self reported EPA estimates say.
  - concordDance 6y ago
    Can we have a source here?
    - clouddrover 6y ago
      Here's a range test of a Tesla Model Y (EPA range 326 miles) versus a Ford Mustang Mach E (EPA range 270 miles). But in a real world drive the Mach E gets more range: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSmSiOo-v8s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSmSiOo-v8s Tesla likes to maximize their EPA test cycle results to make the advertising look good, but it doesn't necessarily translate to real world results.
      - simondotau 6y ago
        The difference, as other testers have noted, is that Tesla's notion of "0% battery" is a bit more conservative than other brands. It's important to appreciate that the utility of energy efficiency metrics are different for ICE and EV. In an ICE car, fuel efficiency is pretty much just a stand-in for running costs and tailpipe pollution, so it makes sense for the test cycle to represent a plausible balance of city and highway driving. But when it comes to vehicle range, you mostly care about range in the context of long distance driving. What matters is highway cruising efficiency, not some emissions-focused test cycle. So when judging the range of an EV, it should be as simple as highway efficiency multiplied by usable battery capacity.
        clouddrover 6y ago
        > The difference, as other testers have noted, is that Tesla's notion of "0% battery" is a bit more conservative than other brands It's not enough of a difference to account for the range deficit. Add on 12.6 miles for the Model Y and 7.3 miles for the Mach E. The Mustang still comes out on top: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1131706_tesla-saves-more-range-at-0-than-other-evs-test-finds https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1131706_tesla-saves-mor... > But when it comes to vehicle range, you mostly care about range in the context of long distance driving. Yes, the Mach E does it better. > What matters is highway cruising efficiency No. What matters is how far you can drive for the money you spent.
- wazokazi 6y ago
  I bought a Ford Mach-e, after comparing the mileage, build quality and pricing with model Y. The Tesla drives better, performance wise they felt the same, but build quality and cabin noise is way better in the Mach-e. Also, surprisingly actual road mileage is better in the Mach-e too[1]. Tesla felt like a car built around the software and ford felt like a car with the software as an afterthought. But I like driving cars (drive a manual right now), so, don’t really care as much about the software as others. [1] https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/electric-car-range-and-consumption-epa-vs-edmunds.html https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/electric-car-range-and-cons...
- maxerickson 6y ago
  Tesla has ~2,000 charging stations (with 20,000 chargers). The stations seems to cost a few hundred thousand dollars. So they have a lead, but it's roughly a billion dollars (or maybe 2) to build out something similar, that isn't going to take decades. There are tens of thousands of places that might install a couple high power chargers (restaurants and similar). Doesn't take that many of them to add a lot of capacity, even if it isn't spaced out quite as well.
  - nick_kline 6y ago
    It's not impossible, it just takes planning and multiple technical steps. Until the last 6 months, no other cars had plug in and charge (with your car telling the charger the credit card number and/or car id)! You had to sign in to an app or scan your card on the charger itself. Telsa also is the only car manu. was access to enough batteries to ship car in en masse. All the the companies making evs are significantly limited by batteries. Finally teslas have much better energy efficiency/mile. 800v charging and car systems is one area tesla is behind (they are 400v).
    - maxerickson 6y ago
      That other vehicles are getting plug and charge is a sign of the lead eroding. They only have to figure it out the one time. I would expect battery production capacity to be somewhat lumpy (with big shifts when new mines or factories open). That can take a long time and I haven't looked at where things are, but it also means that there can be a very sudden shift.
  - mcot2 6y ago
    I follow the development of the stations pretty closely. It is much much much harder than you think it is. Some stations take well over a year from permitting to lighting them up. Tesla has also made deals with a lot of businesses and states to put them on highway rest stops. The other charging stations are spotty at best. I live one mile from the Electrify America HQ. Even the station at their HQ is iffy and I had issues with payments on it. Also Tesla has two full production lines for the station gear. One in Shanghai and one in Buffalo NY. Electrify America is a hodgepodge of 4 different suppliers gear.
- clouddrover 6y ago
  > Tesla will be making electric cars with a range to dollar ratio that can’t possibly be matched by incumbents for the foreseeable future That isn't true today, never mind the future. If you want range to dollars then the Chevy Bolt is hard to beat. Especially with deals like this: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/chevy-bolt-ev-available-for-just-107-a-month/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/chevy-bolt-ev-available-f... It's also important to consider real world miles versus paper miles. Tesla's EPA range figures are inflated. On paper, the Tesla Model Y should have more range than the Ford Mustang Mach E. But in real world driving the Mach E has the greater range: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSmSiOo-v8s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSmSiOo-v8s
- deleted 6y ago
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deleted 6y ago
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judge2020 6y ago
Almost went bankrupt during the first Roadster deliveries in 2008 as well: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-43365710 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-43365710

dangus 6y ago

The inflated stock price is easy to explain: intangibles are part of the balance sheet. In my guesstimation, Tesla will be making electric cars with a range to dollar ratio that can’t possibly be matched by incumbents for the foreseeable future. VW and the rest are more capable of producing a refined car, but (again, my opinion) Tesla’s EV advantage is similar to the big three’s various inertial advantages that they enjoyed in the mid-20th century. Perhaps more US-specific: buying a Tesla over something like a VW ID.4 gives you the supercharger network. It will be years if not decades before the general open standard charging network can compete with that benefit of ownership.

azinman2 6y ago
So I just bought an ID.4 this weekend after seeing on HN on Friday that it launched in the US. I also test drove a Tesla Y just to double check Saturday morning before doing so. Tesla Y is for sure faster and the better drive. It's also like 10-15k more expensive and that's not even before VW's rebates. The interior was weird -- tiny headrests, tiny mirrors, and really poor back visibility. A giant screen in middle and nothing else wasn't particularly great, and I don't have CarPlay (I know Tesla has a lot of functionality in their system, but I'd personally rather drive it all from my phone to have a more continuous experience in car and out of car). On that screen was a 'video game'-ified representation of what Autopilot was seeing... not only distracting, but kept being wrong while I was stopped at a red light staring at it as it missed the cars in front of me and kept rapidly alternating what direction the incoming lane was going to turn. And that's driving the car? Scary! I don't care about being faster, the ID.4 is plenty fast. I also don't really care about 250mi versus 350mi range or whatever right now.. all are inconvenient for a super long trip. I just recently drove from SF to near Canada... that was a very long multi-day drive and I would for sure not want to have multiple 35m+ stops in addition to the long drive. Until the technology gets WAYYY better I'll just rent ICE cars for a very long drive. Until then 250mi is plenty to get around the Bay Area knowing I can just plugin at home overnight to recharge. VW has build a Electrify America charging network from a 2B settlement for their diesel emissions standards. If they're smart they'll capitalize on this and win much more in the long run by becoming Exxon AND a car company... their network isn't exclusive to their cars. With everyone coming online in the next couple years, Tesla is going to have very real competition. I don't think the areas that they're better at are quite as make/break for car decision making as they claim to be. Elon Musk himself certainly doesn't help as a very divisive figure (and was part of the reason I didn't want a Tesla).
- browningstreet 6y ago
  I recently compared the number of charging stations for Tesla, Ford and VW here in Reno. Tesla had some, Ford had many, VW had very few. In markets like this that’s gonna hurt for a while.
- stsmwg 6y ago
  These are almost the exact reason I'm looking forward to test driving an ID.4. I just don't care about the acceleration enough to have that be a plus. I hope you like your ID.4, it really seems like a 'regular car' BEV.
- Drunk_Engineer 6y ago
  As a former Audi owner, I would never ever buy anything from VW (certainly not after the dieselgate scandal). But good luck with your $45k purchase!
  - azinman2 6y ago
    Why specifically? Don’t we want to support them in EVs? Btw it’s -9k with rebates. But I also leased as I anticipate it being uncompetitive in 3 years. Everyone has EVs coming so the tech and competition will mature quickly. This is a first gen car for VW.
    - Drunk_Engineer 6y ago
      There is no obligation to "support" a for-profit corporation like some kind of charity. Certainly VW deserves no such charity. It is a recidivist emissions violator that has been caught doing defeat devices on multiple occasions. It treats customers with the same contempt as it does the EPA. It is good though that you got your vehicle on lease. If it is like my first-generation A4, everything will start to fall apart after 3 years.
- pa7ch 6y ago
  I wouldn't just say 250 vs 350 is a wash on trips . While the Y isn't better then ICE for road trips its way better then the VW for EV road trips
nikau 6y ago
Except most real world tests show Tesla doesn't go any further than competing cars regardless of what their self reported EPA estimates say.
- concordDance 6y ago
  Can we have a source here?
  - clouddrover 6y ago
    Here's a range test of a Tesla Model Y (EPA range 326 miles) versus a Ford Mustang Mach E (EPA range 270 miles). But in a real world drive the Mach E gets more range: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSmSiOo-v8s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSmSiOo-v8s Tesla likes to maximize their EPA test cycle results to make the advertising look good, but it doesn't necessarily translate to real world results.
    - simondotau 6y ago
      The difference, as other testers have noted, is that Tesla's notion of "0% battery" is a bit more conservative than other brands. It's important to appreciate that the utility of energy efficiency metrics are different for ICE and EV. In an ICE car, fuel efficiency is pretty much just a stand-in for running costs and tailpipe pollution, so it makes sense for the test cycle to represent a plausible balance of city and highway driving. But when it comes to vehicle range, you mostly care about range in the context of long distance driving. What matters is highway cruising efficiency, not some emissions-focused test cycle. So when judging the range of an EV, it should be as simple as highway efficiency multiplied by usable battery capacity.
      - clouddrover 6y ago
        > The difference, as other testers have noted, is that Tesla's notion of "0% battery" is a bit more conservative than other brands It's not enough of a difference to account for the range deficit. Add on 12.6 miles for the Model Y and 7.3 miles for the Mach E. The Mustang still comes out on top: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1131706_tesla-saves-more-range-at-0-than-other-evs-test-finds https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1131706_tesla-saves-mor... > But when it comes to vehicle range, you mostly care about range in the context of long distance driving. Yes, the Mach E does it better. > What matters is highway cruising efficiency No. What matters is how far you can drive for the money you spent.
wazokazi 6y ago
I bought a Ford Mach-e, after comparing the mileage, build quality and pricing with model Y. The Tesla drives better, performance wise they felt the same, but build quality and cabin noise is way better in the Mach-e. Also, surprisingly actual road mileage is better in the Mach-e too[1]. Tesla felt like a car built around the software and ford felt like a car with the software as an afterthought. But I like driving cars (drive a manual right now), so, don’t really care as much about the software as others. [1] https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/electric-car-range-and-consumption-epa-vs-edmunds.html https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/electric-car-range-and-cons...
maxerickson 6y ago
Tesla has ~2,000 charging stations (with 20,000 chargers). The stations seems to cost a few hundred thousand dollars. So they have a lead, but it's roughly a billion dollars (or maybe 2) to build out something similar, that isn't going to take decades. There are tens of thousands of places that might install a couple high power chargers (restaurants and similar). Doesn't take that many of them to add a lot of capacity, even if it isn't spaced out quite as well.
- nick_kline 6y ago
  It's not impossible, it just takes planning and multiple technical steps. Until the last 6 months, no other cars had plug in and charge (with your car telling the charger the credit card number and/or car id)! You had to sign in to an app or scan your card on the charger itself. Telsa also is the only car manu. was access to enough batteries to ship car in en masse. All the the companies making evs are significantly limited by batteries. Finally teslas have much better energy efficiency/mile. 800v charging and car systems is one area tesla is behind (they are 400v).
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    That other vehicles are getting plug and charge is a sign of the lead eroding. They only have to figure it out the one time. I would expect battery production capacity to be somewhat lumpy (with big shifts when new mines or factories open). That can take a long time and I haven't looked at where things are, but it also means that there can be a very sudden shift.
- mcot2 6y ago
  I follow the development of the stations pretty closely. It is much much much harder than you think it is. Some stations take well over a year from permitting to lighting them up. Tesla has also made deals with a lot of businesses and states to put them on highway rest stops. The other charging stations are spotty at best. I live one mile from the Electrify America HQ. Even the station at their HQ is iffy and I had issues with payments on it. Also Tesla has two full production lines for the station gear. One in Shanghai and one in Buffalo NY. Electrify America is a hodgepodge of 4 different suppliers gear.
clouddrover 6y ago
> Tesla will be making electric cars with a range to dollar ratio that can’t possibly be matched by incumbents for the foreseeable future That isn't true today, never mind the future. If you want range to dollars then the Chevy Bolt is hard to beat. Especially with deals like this: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/chevy-bolt-ev-available-for-just-107-a-month/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/chevy-bolt-ev-available-f... It's also important to consider real world miles versus paper miles. Tesla's EPA range figures are inflated. On paper, the Tesla Model Y should have more range than the Ford Mustang Mach E. But in real world driving the Mach E has the greater range: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSmSiOo-v8s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSmSiOo-v8s
deleted 6y ago
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deleted 6y ago

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judge2020 6y ago

Almost went bankrupt during the first Roadster deliveries in 2008 as well: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-43365710 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-43365710