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> The Vale of Glamorgan council is bidding for the site to be used to house new technology to produce "limitless" energy ... However, the plant would not open u

> The Vale of Glamorgan council is bidding for the site to be used to house new technology to produce "limitless" energy ... However, the plant would not open until 2040. I'm glad that fusion is now less than 20 years away.

detaro 6y ago
Later in the article it's clearer that it's talking about a prototype/research thing.
fnord77 6y ago
heh, it's been less than 20 years away for the last 75 years.
- melling 6y ago
  No, I think the joke is that it’s always 30 or 50 years away, can’t remember which. 20 would be a bit more optimism
  - random5634 6y ago
    As long as it’s actual production of limitless power in 30 - half the time these things are r&d stuff. 20 years to limitless power in production is great.
- Dylan16807 6y ago
  I guess I have to get the chart now. https://i.imgur.com/3vYLQmm.png https://i.imgur.com/3vYLQmm.png The real world is more complicated than an old chart but it's definitely worth keeping in mind. And supercomputers have been very helpful recently to design balanced tokamaks!
317070 6y ago
Well, it is all contingent on someone getting high temperature superconductors to work on an industrial reliability level. If they manage, we will have power producing fusion (though probably not economically viable). It is a big if, though. Fusion has always been 20 years away, as it was always contingent on some science panning out, but the universe has not been in our favour so far. It is 20 years away, with some decent but <50% probability.
- DrBazza 6y ago
  Isn't REBCO tape the thing that is going to save fusion?
  - 317070 6y ago
    Yes, but turning the tape in a supermagnet that is reliable and doesn't burn itself to pieces on every quench event is non-trivial.
- vkou 6y ago
  > Well, it is all contingent on someone getting high temperature superconductors to work on an industrial reliability level. Is that really the only path-critical bottleneck that needs to be solved? Has everything else been figured out?
  - _0ffh 6y ago
    No it's more complicated. High temperature superconductors are neither strictly necessary nor sufficient on their own, but I'm sure they'd help quite a bit.
  - ncmncm 6y ago
    Far from it. That old power station will sit idle for a long, long time... unless they build a solar farm around it. Seriously, there will never, ever be one solitary erg of commercially competitive energy from any process dependent on heating by neutron irradiation. Every cent going into work on those is, in effect, stolen from work on viable technologies that can have any impact on global climate disruption—mainly solar, wind, geothermal, and storage; and digs fusion deeper into an already tens-of-$billions-deep hole it can never climb out of. The only reasons spending on neutronic fusion continues are secondary—employing hot-neutron physicists so enough are ready when weapons work comes up, hi-temp superconductor industrialization, plasma fluid dynamics praxis, hot-neutron-tolerant metallurgy. At the end of it all they will shrug and say, "We guessed wrong", and not even apologize; instead: "... but we have this other great idea!"
- willyt 6y ago
FridayoLeary 6y ago
> The Vale of Glamorgan council That sounds like something straight out of Tolkein!
- kitd 6y ago
  Or a book your username comes from? :)
flohofwoe 6y ago
That's more than the traditional "15 years" for technology that never happens though. Don't know what to make of this ;)

detaro 6y ago

Later in the article it's clearer that it's talking about a prototype/research thing.

fnord77 6y ago

heh, it's been less than 20 years away for the last 75 years.

melling 6y ago
No, I think the joke is that it’s always 30 or 50 years away, can’t remember which. 20 would be a bit more optimism
- random5634 6y ago
  As long as it’s actual production of limitless power in 30 - half the time these things are r&d stuff. 20 years to limitless power in production is great.
Dylan16807 6y ago
I guess I have to get the chart now. https://i.imgur.com/3vYLQmm.png https://i.imgur.com/3vYLQmm.png The real world is more complicated than an old chart but it's definitely worth keeping in mind. And supercomputers have been very helpful recently to design balanced tokamaks!

317070 6y ago

Well, it is all contingent on someone getting high temperature superconductors to work on an industrial reliability level. If they manage, we will have power producing fusion (though probably not economically viable). It is a big if, though. Fusion has always been 20 years away, as it was always contingent on some science panning out, but the universe has not been in our favour so far. It is 20 years away, with some decent but <50% probability.

DrBazza 6y ago
Isn't REBCO tape the thing that is going to save fusion?
- 317070 6y ago
  Yes, but turning the tape in a supermagnet that is reliable and doesn't burn itself to pieces on every quench event is non-trivial.
vkou 6y ago
> Well, it is all contingent on someone getting high temperature superconductors to work on an industrial reliability level. Is that really the only path-critical bottleneck that needs to be solved? Has everything else been figured out?
- _0ffh 6y ago
  No it's more complicated. High temperature superconductors are neither strictly necessary nor sufficient on their own, but I'm sure they'd help quite a bit.
- ncmncm 6y ago
  Far from it. That old power station will sit idle for a long, long time... unless they build a solar farm around it. Seriously, there will never, ever be one solitary erg of commercially competitive energy from any process dependent on heating by neutron irradiation. Every cent going into work on those is, in effect, stolen from work on viable technologies that can have any impact on global climate disruption—mainly solar, wind, geothermal, and storage; and digs fusion deeper into an already tens-of-$billions-deep hole it can never climb out of. The only reasons spending on neutronic fusion continues are secondary—employing hot-neutron physicists so enough are ready when weapons work comes up, hi-temp superconductor industrialization, plasma fluid dynamics praxis, hot-neutron-tolerant metallurgy. At the end of it all they will shrug and say, "We guessed wrong", and not even apologize; instead: "... but we have this other great idea!"
willyt 6y ago

FridayoLeary 6y ago

> The Vale of Glamorgan council That sounds like something straight out of Tolkein!

kitd 6y ago
Or a book your username comes from? :)

flohofwoe 6y ago

That's more than the traditional "15 years" for technology that never happens though. Don't know what to make of this ;)