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My anecdote is that I got the JJ and kinda regret it, this blood clot thing made me realize it’s pretty untested , I feel like they should be recommending every

My anecdote is that I got the JJ and kinda regret it, this blood clot thing made me realize it’s pretty untested , I feel like they should be recommending everyone get a full panel blood test a week after to add more data. After the AZ issues there should have been more scrutiny of the early clot cases

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ggm 5y ago
Kind of untested: sorry that's just wrong. All these shots are tested by 40,000 or more people. The problems emerging now are in the one in 100,000 or more. Do the maths on the odds.
- not2b 5y ago
  More like 1 in 500k. The CDC reports that as of April 21 there have been a total of 15 confirmed cases of this blood clotting condition among nearly eight million doses administered. You probably won't find an issue that rare if you test 40k people. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/blood-clots-and-the-johnson-johnson-vaccine-what-we-know-so-far/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/blood-clots-and-t...
  - disgruntledphd2 5y ago
    The UK figures (where AZ has been the centerpiece of their programme) suggest about 1 in 250k, which is still a really small risk.
    - NeutronStar 5y ago
      You have a higher chance of death if you drive in a car for 20h. I assume most people would have driven more than 20h in 2019. 20h of driving being not even 1.5k miles at highway speeds and the average car having 10k miles driven per year.
- mssundaram 5y ago
  Compared to other vaccines, 40,000 is "kinda untested"
  - ggm 5y ago
    During a pandemic?
  - arcticbull 5y ago
    My research indicated that the median broad-scale vaccine phase III trial is about 22,000 people [1]. I've also seen the 3,000 to 6,000 person range for smaller trials [2]. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3551877/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3551877/ [2] https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/10/what-successful-vaccine-trial-looks-like/616775/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/10/what-succ...
    - dehrmann 5y ago
      I can't seem to find it, but I remember reading that vaccine researchers hold their breaths until 1M people have had it for 8 weeks. In normal times, the J&J vaccine would probably be taken off the market or only recommended for men.
  - ulfw 5y ago
    The f other vaccines had more than 40,000 trial participants. Please list them all. You seem to think there are so many.
    - williamtwild 5y ago
      In general terms : Flu , shingles for starters
      - ulfw 5y ago
        Flu vaccine Phase 3 trials with over 40,000 participants? I couldn't find one. Most are in the 15K range. As is the latest shingles vaccine trial: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6590925/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6590925/ (14,759 patients who received two doses of HZ/su (n = 7,344) or placebo (n = 7,415)) So if 40,000 is "kinda untested" than this one must be complete and utter made-up then
- sgc 5y ago
  It's obviously not well tested enough to not get pulled out of use despite the pandemic, so more testing as we move forward seems appropriate. OP has a point, although the form of testing will probably be one less likely to cause people to avoid the vaccine. Also, what are the odds of a 1 in 10k concern not being picked up as such in a 40k sample size? It would look like background noise if it was only one case in that particular group. To be clear, I am very much pro continuing use of the vaccine, but it's not the case that every possible 1 in 40k or less concern has been discovered since we had one such group go through a controlled study. Since the odds of COVID causing serious problems are far, far higher than that, it is still a win, but we should of course learn as we go.
  - JamesBarney 5y ago
    > It's obviously not well tested enough to not get pulled out of use despite the pandemic Or the people making the decision are incredibly risk averse and don't mind an extra few hundred or thousand Covid deaths to save a single person with a blood clot. >Also, what are the odds of a 1 in 10k concern not being picked up as such in a 40k sample size? It would look like background noise if it was only one case in that particular group. It's a specific type of blood clot that is incredibly rare and occurs more often in young women. If it had a 1 in 10k rarity it would have probably been found
    - sgc 5y ago
      I never said anything like "the blood clot risk might be 1 in 10k". I said that there can be things that come up a lot more than 1 in 100k that were not found in the trials (not referring to anything specific, just unknown unknowns), and it is not appropriate to stop looking for side effects just because we have done some testing.
  - ggm 5y ago
    Its not 1 in 10k. You're overstating the risk. It's because its not 1 in 10k it was only picked up after mass vaccination began. See? you're inflating risk and misunderstanding consequences. How many people die, if nobody is vaccinated compared to a 1 in 100,000 risk of clotting? A lot more than 1 in 100,000 die from covid.
- dehrmann 5y ago
  > Do the maths on the odds. The problem is that the people who haven't been vaccinated yet tend to be younger and less likely to die from covid. Granted, it's still much more deadly than the vaccine, but with mitigations and some degree of herd immunity, those odds aren't as compelling as for 65-year-olds.
m-p-3 5y ago
The average risk of thrombosis the J&J and AstraZeneca vaccine have are between 1 in 100,000 to 1 in 250,000. To put some perspective, estrogen-based medication like the contraceptive pill have a risk of 1 in 1,000.
- mikem170 5y ago
  Careful, You might be comparing apples and oranges... Contraceptive pill blood clot risk is for any type of blood clot, such as deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, etc [0]. The vaccine cerebral venous sinus thrombosis blood clot risk is something like 1 in 100k+ (as you mentioned), but during J&J FDA trials of 20k people there were 50% more blood clots of other various types in the vaccinated group [1] (15 blood clots in vaccinated group versus 10 in the placebo group, which the FDA did not consider statistically significant at the time) You may be comparing fatal-only vaccine blood clots to non-fatal contraception blood clots, and ignoring non-fatal vaccine blood clots. I'm not saying this to throw the vaccine under the bus, just pointing out that the comparison of the odds you presented might not be fair. [0] https://thefemedic.com/contraception/blood-clots-thrombosis-combined-contraceptive-pill/ https://thefemedic.com/contraception/blood-clots-thrombosis-... [1] https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/13/health/johnson-vaccine-blood-clots-cdc-fda/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/13/health/johnson-vaccine-blood-...
  - mlyle 5y ago
    > You may be comparing fatal-only vaccine blood clots to non-fatal contraception blood clots At the time vaccination was paused, here were 6 known cases of CVST, 2 fatal, in 6.8 million vaccinated. To come up with 1 in 250,000 like the OP, you need to consider only women (~3.5 million doses), count all cases (not just the fatalities), and assume more than half of the cases were not reported.
grandmczeb 5y ago
> I feel like they should be recommending everyone get a full panel blood test a week after to add more data. Why? That would that be a ridiculously impractical recommendation (do we even have the capacity to run millions of full panel blood tests a week?) and completely useless for detecting the problems people are worried about. TTS[1] isn’t something subtle you need a blood test for. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-04-23/03-COVID-Shimabukuro-508.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...
- rel2thr 5y ago
  I don't know if we have capacity, thats a good call out. I just feel like more data is better, the scientist don't seem to understand the mechanism that causes this problem and why it affects a few people but not most. Your link links the problem to low platelet count, is the vaccine affecting platelets in other people but not enough to manifest the issue? Maybe more data could help figure out why it happened to those handful of people and not others. The J&J vaccine causes headaches and pains normally , I was down and out for a couple days, I could easily see someone with the issue thinking its normal and waiting too long to go in for help.
quickthrowman 5y ago
Who is going to pay for the blood panel?

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ggm 5y ago

Kind of untested: sorry that's just wrong. All these shots are tested by 40,000 or more people. The problems emerging now are in the one in 100,000 or more. Do the maths on the odds.

not2b 5y ago
More like 1 in 500k. The CDC reports that as of April 21 there have been a total of 15 confirmed cases of this blood clotting condition among nearly eight million doses administered. You probably won't find an issue that rare if you test 40k people. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/blood-clots-and-the-johnson-johnson-vaccine-what-we-know-so-far/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/blood-clots-and-t...
- disgruntledphd2 5y ago
  The UK figures (where AZ has been the centerpiece of their programme) suggest about 1 in 250k, which is still a really small risk.
  - NeutronStar 5y ago
    You have a higher chance of death if you drive in a car for 20h. I assume most people would have driven more than 20h in 2019. 20h of driving being not even 1.5k miles at highway speeds and the average car having 10k miles driven per year.
mssundaram 5y ago
Compared to other vaccines, 40,000 is "kinda untested"
- ggm 5y ago
  During a pandemic?
- arcticbull 5y ago
  My research indicated that the median broad-scale vaccine phase III trial is about 22,000 people [1]. I've also seen the 3,000 to 6,000 person range for smaller trials [2]. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3551877/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3551877/ [2] https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/10/what-successful-vaccine-trial-looks-like/616775/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/10/what-succ...
  - dehrmann 5y ago
    I can't seem to find it, but I remember reading that vaccine researchers hold their breaths until 1M people have had it for 8 weeks. In normal times, the J&J vaccine would probably be taken off the market or only recommended for men.
- ulfw 5y ago
  The f other vaccines had more than 40,000 trial participants. Please list them all. You seem to think there are so many.
  - williamtwild 5y ago
    In general terms : Flu , shingles for starters
    - ulfw 5y ago
      Flu vaccine Phase 3 trials with over 40,000 participants? I couldn't find one. Most are in the 15K range. As is the latest shingles vaccine trial: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6590925/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6590925/ (14,759 patients who received two doses of HZ/su (n = 7,344) or placebo (n = 7,415)) So if 40,000 is "kinda untested" than this one must be complete and utter made-up then
sgc 5y ago
It's obviously not well tested enough to not get pulled out of use despite the pandemic, so more testing as we move forward seems appropriate. OP has a point, although the form of testing will probably be one less likely to cause people to avoid the vaccine. Also, what are the odds of a 1 in 10k concern not being picked up as such in a 40k sample size? It would look like background noise if it was only one case in that particular group. To be clear, I am very much pro continuing use of the vaccine, but it's not the case that every possible 1 in 40k or less concern has been discovered since we had one such group go through a controlled study. Since the odds of COVID causing serious problems are far, far higher than that, it is still a win, but we should of course learn as we go.
- JamesBarney 5y ago
  > It's obviously not well tested enough to not get pulled out of use despite the pandemic Or the people making the decision are incredibly risk averse and don't mind an extra few hundred or thousand Covid deaths to save a single person with a blood clot. >Also, what are the odds of a 1 in 10k concern not being picked up as such in a 40k sample size? It would look like background noise if it was only one case in that particular group. It's a specific type of blood clot that is incredibly rare and occurs more often in young women. If it had a 1 in 10k rarity it would have probably been found
  - sgc 5y ago
    I never said anything like "the blood clot risk might be 1 in 10k". I said that there can be things that come up a lot more than 1 in 100k that were not found in the trials (not referring to anything specific, just unknown unknowns), and it is not appropriate to stop looking for side effects just because we have done some testing.
- ggm 5y ago
  Its not 1 in 10k. You're overstating the risk. It's because its not 1 in 10k it was only picked up after mass vaccination began. See? you're inflating risk and misunderstanding consequences. How many people die, if nobody is vaccinated compared to a 1 in 100,000 risk of clotting? A lot more than 1 in 100,000 die from covid.
dehrmann 5y ago
> Do the maths on the odds. The problem is that the people who haven't been vaccinated yet tend to be younger and less likely to die from covid. Granted, it's still much more deadly than the vaccine, but with mitigations and some degree of herd immunity, those odds aren't as compelling as for 65-year-olds.

m-p-3 5y ago

The average risk of thrombosis the J&J and AstraZeneca vaccine have are between 1 in 100,000 to 1 in 250,000. To put some perspective, estrogen-based medication like the contraceptive pill have a risk of 1 in 1,000.

mikem170 5y ago
Careful, You might be comparing apples and oranges... Contraceptive pill blood clot risk is for any type of blood clot, such as deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, etc [0]. The vaccine cerebral venous sinus thrombosis blood clot risk is something like 1 in 100k+ (as you mentioned), but during J&J FDA trials of 20k people there were 50% more blood clots of other various types in the vaccinated group [1] (15 blood clots in vaccinated group versus 10 in the placebo group, which the FDA did not consider statistically significant at the time) You may be comparing fatal-only vaccine blood clots to non-fatal contraception blood clots, and ignoring non-fatal vaccine blood clots. I'm not saying this to throw the vaccine under the bus, just pointing out that the comparison of the odds you presented might not be fair. [0] https://thefemedic.com/contraception/blood-clots-thrombosis-combined-contraceptive-pill/ https://thefemedic.com/contraception/blood-clots-thrombosis-... [1] https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/13/health/johnson-vaccine-blood-clots-cdc-fda/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/13/health/johnson-vaccine-blood-...
- mlyle 5y ago
  > You may be comparing fatal-only vaccine blood clots to non-fatal contraception blood clots At the time vaccination was paused, here were 6 known cases of CVST, 2 fatal, in 6.8 million vaccinated. To come up with 1 in 250,000 like the OP, you need to consider only women (~3.5 million doses), count all cases (not just the fatalities), and assume more than half of the cases were not reported.

grandmczeb 5y ago

> I feel like they should be recommending everyone get a full panel blood test a week after to add more data. Why? That would that be a ridiculously impractical recommendation (do we even have the capacity to run millions of full panel blood tests a week?) and completely useless for detecting the problems people are worried about. TTS[1] isn’t something subtle you need a blood test for. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-04-23/03-COVID-Shimabukuro-508.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...

rel2thr 5y ago
I don't know if we have capacity, thats a good call out. I just feel like more data is better, the scientist don't seem to understand the mechanism that causes this problem and why it affects a few people but not most. Your link links the problem to low platelet count, is the vaccine affecting platelets in other people but not enough to manifest the issue? Maybe more data could help figure out why it happened to those handful of people and not others. The J&J vaccine causes headaches and pains normally , I was down and out for a couple days, I could easily see someone with the issue thinking its normal and waiting too long to go in for help.

quickthrowman 5y ago

Who is going to pay for the blood panel?