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>If you're willing to pay 10x 2019 prices you can probably get whatever chips you need. Many companies are deciding that's not worthwhile. The problem as I und

>If you're willing to pay 10x 2019 prices you can probably get whatever chips you need. Many companies are deciding that's not worthwhile. The problem as I understand it is a company like TSMC sells capacity for the some time period - like a year. The automakers thought people wouldn't buy cars, so they relinquished their slots. Turns out car demand exploded, so they went back to TSMC and said "hey we need those slots" and TSMC said "sorry your slot already got sold to nvidia". Chrsyler could offer to pay TSMC 10x more, but that that ultimately wouldn't do much, the slot is gone and they would have to buy the capacity from nvidia. nvidia is in no position to sell because they are also facing extreme demand. How would it look to nvidia if, while gamers across the world can't get their hands on 3080s, they sold their fab capacity to Chrysler for $$$$?. So money isn't solely the issue here.

turbinerneiter 6y ago
I think your simplifications could change the logic here. Chrysler does not directly buy from TSMC, they buy from i.e. TI, Renesas, Microchip, NXP, ... Many of those companies do still have fabs, and even if not, they are not competing with Nvidia. They are producing on the old, old fabs, at 40, even 80nm. We would need better numbers on where these microcontrollers are fabbed to be able to tell how this interferes with i.e. Nvidia and Apple on TSMC 5nm.
- Plasmoid2000ad 6y ago
  I think there is also a substrate shortage https://www.semi.org/en/blogs/business-markets/the-substrate-crisis-deepens https://www.semi.org/en/blogs/business-markets/the-substrate... And an Air Freight shortage even if you do pay 10x to jump the production queue https://www.wsj.com/articles/snarled-supply-chain-trips-up-small-businesses-11618997400 https://www.wsj.com/articles/snarled-supply-chain-trips-up-s... I'm not even sure it's strictly speaking still true that automotive only uses outdated fabs. Tesla seems to have disrupted the use of low-end chips at least in high end cars, like Jaguar Land Rover.
  - turbinerneiter 6y ago
    I think they have a pretty wide spectrum - your ABS controller will probably be on older node than the processor for the entertainment system.
    - totalZero 6y ago
      Change "probably" to "definitely" and I'm with you. Automotive chips need to be a lot more reliable than a PS5 GPU, and that kind of reliability takes time to test and prove. Not to mention that automakers try not to change parts unnecessarily because their economies of scale are only as useful as their ability to use one component across several models and years. If you care little about thermal efficiency and power consumption, and you're not doing extremely abstract computations, there's no reason whatsoever to spend tons of money on a smaller lithography. I was looking into this recently, and the price difference between some of the equipment involved is around two orders of magnitude from the leading edge to the trailing edge.
- baybal2 6y ago
  Not even 80nm. Most stuff in that space is 130nm+, some extremely old, but still produced ICs from early nineties are on 300nm+ for use on equally old automotive parts.
deleted 6y ago
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ghostpepper 6y ago
Not to detract from what you're saying but gamers aren't getting the cards anyway; they're going to bitcoin miners.
- totalZero 6y ago
  If you look at the concurrent user numbers on Steam, it seems like there's overwhelming engagement in the gaming space right now. I thought the same as you until I looked into it a bit more. (Also, bitcoin is mined on ASICs nowadays, but I get what you mean.)
  - Kiro 6y ago
    People are gaming but they do it on old hardware. Barely anyone I know has bought new hardware in years but they still game more than ever.
- CydeWeys 6y ago
  No, they're not going to Bitcoin miners. Ethereum miners, sure.
  - jachee 6y ago
    It seems inevitable that "bitcoin" (as opposed to "Bitcoin") is destined to become the "kleenex" (as opposed to "Kleenex") of crypto. Etherium fits the bill: it's a digital (bit) currency (coin).
    - CydeWeys 6y ago
      There's already a generic word: crypto/virtual currency. But Bitcoin itself isn't mined with GPUs. You can blame other cryptos for that shortage.
      - jachee 6y ago
        There's a generic word for facial tissues, too. Language doesn't care about the semantics.

turbinerneiter 6y ago

I think your simplifications could change the logic here. Chrysler does not directly buy from TSMC, they buy from i.e. TI, Renesas, Microchip, NXP, ... Many of those companies do still have fabs, and even if not, they are not competing with Nvidia. They are producing on the old, old fabs, at 40, even 80nm. We would need better numbers on where these microcontrollers are fabbed to be able to tell how this interferes with i.e. Nvidia and Apple on TSMC 5nm.

Plasmoid2000ad 6y ago
I think there is also a substrate shortage https://www.semi.org/en/blogs/business-markets/the-substrate-crisis-deepens https://www.semi.org/en/blogs/business-markets/the-substrate... And an Air Freight shortage even if you do pay 10x to jump the production queue https://www.wsj.com/articles/snarled-supply-chain-trips-up-small-businesses-11618997400 https://www.wsj.com/articles/snarled-supply-chain-trips-up-s... I'm not even sure it's strictly speaking still true that automotive only uses outdated fabs. Tesla seems to have disrupted the use of low-end chips at least in high end cars, like Jaguar Land Rover.
- turbinerneiter 6y ago
  I think they have a pretty wide spectrum - your ABS controller will probably be on older node than the processor for the entertainment system.
  - totalZero 6y ago
    Change "probably" to "definitely" and I'm with you. Automotive chips need to be a lot more reliable than a PS5 GPU, and that kind of reliability takes time to test and prove. Not to mention that automakers try not to change parts unnecessarily because their economies of scale are only as useful as their ability to use one component across several models and years. If you care little about thermal efficiency and power consumption, and you're not doing extremely abstract computations, there's no reason whatsoever to spend tons of money on a smaller lithography. I was looking into this recently, and the price difference between some of the equipment involved is around two orders of magnitude from the leading edge to the trailing edge.
baybal2 6y ago
Not even 80nm. Most stuff in that space is 130nm+, some extremely old, but still produced ICs from early nineties are on 300nm+ for use on equally old automotive parts.

deleted 6y ago

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ghostpepper 6y ago

Not to detract from what you're saying but gamers aren't getting the cards anyway; they're going to bitcoin miners.

totalZero 6y ago
If you look at the concurrent user numbers on Steam, it seems like there's overwhelming engagement in the gaming space right now. I thought the same as you until I looked into it a bit more. (Also, bitcoin is mined on ASICs nowadays, but I get what you mean.)
- Kiro 6y ago
  People are gaming but they do it on old hardware. Barely anyone I know has bought new hardware in years but they still game more than ever.
CydeWeys 6y ago
No, they're not going to Bitcoin miners. Ethereum miners, sure.
- jachee 6y ago
  It seems inevitable that "bitcoin" (as opposed to "Bitcoin") is destined to become the "kleenex" (as opposed to "Kleenex") of crypto. Etherium fits the bill: it's a digital (bit) currency (coin).
  - CydeWeys 6y ago
    There's already a generic word: crypto/virtual currency. But Bitcoin itself isn't mined with GPUs. You can blame other cryptos for that shortage.
    - jachee 6y ago
      There's a generic word for facial tissues, too. Language doesn't care about the semantics.